Gulf of Mexico low growing more organized
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly west-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 23.75 inches have been measured in Northern Florida at the Flagler County Fairgrounds over the past four days, and Daytona Beach has seen over 14 inches, forcing closure of numerous roads. Another 1 - 3 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should gradually subside Friday and the rains should diminish substantially on Saturday, when the center of the storm is expected to move ashore over Louisiana.
Figure 1. Storm total rainfall estimated from the Melbourne radar.
Latest visible satellite loops show that the circulation of the low has grown more circular and better defined, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build off the Gulf Coast of Florida on the low's east side. These thunderstorms are beginning to form spiral bands characteristic of a developing tropical depression. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the low is moving into an area of dry continental air, though, and this dry air will slow development. Wind shear is about 20 knots, which is low enough to allow development. While none of the computer models develop the storm, they generally predict the storm should move northwestwards towards Louisiana over the next two days, and the shear is lower to the north. The low is currently over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of about 27°C in the Loop Current, which is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average. SSTs of at least 26°C are typically needed to support a tropical storm, so I expect the low will continue to develop through Friday. By Friday night, the low will be approaching the Louisiana coast, and SSTs will cool to 26°C. Still, with wind shear expected to drop, this low has a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression before its expected landfall Saturday over Louisiana. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Friday morning, or sooner if NHC declares this storm an area of interest (an "Invest").
Jeff Masters
Taken last night with a 16mm lense. Enjoy
Mark
www.shockpic.smugmug.com
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 — Blog Index
He also was NOT originally going to evacuate as he is a stubborn old so and so.
THIS IS SOOOOOOOOOOO TRUE!!! Just look at Corey Lopez, Shea .... and many others that have grown up on this Gulf. The Style, Grace, technique of these guys -- takes my breath away.
This low made waves that look like this:
and I really had a good time on them...nothing epic...but no fearing for my life either.....
And any drought conditions should be alleviated somewhat, one imagines?
oh and by the way...Kelly Slater..who only is the best surfer ever came from Cocoa Bch...so there is something to be said about Fl surf...just an FYI!!
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?
Action: Quote | Ignore User
LOL, i wish...no if you ever have surfed any of our crap..(which alot of times it is) then go to the east coast or costa...then you realize what real waves are and you just tear them up cause your are so use to riding crap...hell i wish it got that big, surfmom might not but i sure do...LOL
i'm out...everyone be safe today!!!
AOI #1
AOI #2
Where have you been hiding... KEH wants her stir stick back.. washed even
I honestly thought after looking at the shear maps yesterday.. that it wouldn't be there this morning... so its already starting out as a strange year.
You just pushed my button --better give the stick back to KEH..ahemmmmmmmmmm Cory, Shea, Slater -- they surf Waimea & the Pipeline and THEY WIN DUDE...... Mavericks is for the Giant Wave dudes and grace/style is not what they're about.
BTW --- It's sooo good to see you, I was worried you were swamped in the Glades or got your fishing lines tangled w/a Tarpon and went for a ride to Trin.
TampaSpins Link
I thought this was your Blog?
Interesting features in the Caribbean and Gulf.
Deaths already reported in Dom.Rep and Haiti from heavy rains. This is very early in the season for them to be experiencing heavy rain.
Looking at the Trop. Atl., very little SAL anywhere, and mid level moisture is quite high. The ITCZ seems to have gone to sleep though.
Watch out Shep...ROTFL
Well, Neptune's calling I'm out --I good as long as there's no T-storms
Morning Snake.. good to see your staying out of the Area of Interests for a couple days.. maybe SB's flowers will stay in the ground now.
Have a good one SF, don't tell the girls what your planning for their eggs.
Ok - I'm OUT
SIESTA BEACH ,Sarasota Fl is rated #2!!!!!
hee, hee -- I would use supermarket eggs for that pleasure......my girl's eggs have more value then the dollar presently --wouldn't wast that on idiots..... see you in the water WhaleMan
You have to get a avatar for this profile..I missed your post completely. When are you due back home to your little spot in paradise... or are you going home?
MISSNADIA - SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! (ROTFL) I HATE (I rarely use that word) when that report gets published.... it's much better to be a well-kept secret.......
We'd be #1 if we had more amenities....like parking spaces for locals....grrrr
But now perhaps Orca will get his vacation plans straight...... and in spite of what the Panhandle Girls say...... I think I have the sweet spot....shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!
AMZ550-570-221430-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0020.090522T1311Z-090522T1430Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
911 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM.
* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT
* AT 907 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF PORT
ORANGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT.
* THE STORM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
ORMOND BEACH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID
MORNING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU SIGHT A WATERSPOUT...CONTACT THE COAST GUARD VIA MARINE RADIO
OR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
IF A WATERSPOUT APPROACHES YOU ON LAND...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN
THE INTERIOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. WATERSPOUTS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGE AS
THEY COME ASHORE.
&&
LAT...LON 2947 8111 2949 8076 2886 8037 2883 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 123DEG 15KT 2912 8065
$$
MRV
Quoting TampaSpin:
I updated my Blog this morning if anyone would like to view......thanks!
TampaSpins Link
I thought this was your Blog?
I do both and both are current....Whats the problem? WOW....The WebSite has also the WU link at the top TaB if you haven't noticed!
TampaSpins Link
I'm not so sure... all it seems to do down there lately is rain.
Houston, TX
Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Shreveport, LA
Jackson, MS
Mobile, AL
Birmingham, AL
Morining fellow wunderbloggers!!!
sweeeet....... I'm on my balcony looking at it right now,white sand beaches w/sand thats 99% pure quartz and the texture of baby powder....no wonder its #2.......and the water is usually blueish-green
I didn't say that... His start was from these shores... that was what I meant.
Well the low in the gulf has generated some sweet waves this morning.... the weather was a trip.... from sunny, to squally, to sunny again
A real day in the elements
Viewing: 851 - 897
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 — Blog Index