Gulf of Mexico low growing more organized
The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly west-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 23.75 inches have been measured in Northern Florida at the Flagler County Fairgrounds over the past four days, and Daytona Beach has seen over 14 inches, forcing closure of numerous roads. Another 1 - 3 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should gradually subside Friday and the rains should diminish substantially on Saturday, when the center of the storm is expected to move ashore over Louisiana.
Figure 1. Storm total rainfall estimated from the Melbourne radar.
Latest visible satellite loops show that the circulation of the low has grown more circular and better defined, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build off the Gulf Coast of Florida on the low's east side. These thunderstorms are beginning to form spiral bands characteristic of a developing tropical depression. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the low is moving into an area of dry continental air, though, and this dry air will slow development. Wind shear is about 20 knots, which is low enough to allow development. While none of the computer models develop the storm, they generally predict the storm should move northwestwards towards Louisiana over the next two days, and the shear is lower to the north. The low is currently over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of about 27°C in the Loop Current, which is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average. SSTs of at least 26°C are typically needed to support a tropical storm, so I expect the low will continue to develop through Friday. By Friday night, the low will be approaching the Louisiana coast, and SSTs will cool to 26°C. Still, with wind shear expected to drop, this low has a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression before its expected landfall Saturday over Louisiana. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Friday morning, or sooner if NHC declares this storm an area of interest (an "Invest").
Jeff Masters
Taken last night with a 16mm lense. Enjoy
Mark
www.shockpic.smugmug.com
Reader Comments
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LOL
me too... but i don`t give a chance to develop
A suggestion for when you post an image. after you have inserted the image... highlight the Code it posted in the message..and link it again to the same image. Then if anyone clicks on it.. it expands automatically in another window.
Example
You can also do the same thing to link it to your blog or anything else.
Example 2
I don't think God gives a rats butt about America...
I'll let George Carlin say the rest...
Link
ROFLMAO... I love that video :)
LOL,
George Carlin was the best...
Lmao , never get tired of that video.
Ouch , that is a lot. But at least your entertainment room is fine.
Come on now! He too was just doing some remodeling......Nothing like an indoor swimming pool....Heck you had one and didn't realize it......LOL
I'm an insurance adjuster and I strongley recommend you to contact your insuarance carrier and file a claim. It sound like a considerable amount of water damage and possible structrual damage.
Yikes! Shoulda bought that youngin' a kiddie pool from Wal-Marts - 19.95! ;) Or run him 'round the yard with garden hose turned on! Good luck with the repairs - at least twasn't playin' with matches! So, smile! :)
lol heres the link idk how you put in directly into the blog lol
RENONV, we did file a claim, but it won't cover any of the deck or door damage.
Aaah, heck, just shoot that husband of yours! ;)
Thus far I haven't be surprised by anything the GOM low is doing. Does it have any tricks up its swirl?
7? Damn, I thought Mom did good raising the 4 of us! U R 1 Hell of a Woman and don't let any body (man) tell you different!
We'll I'm off. It has been a long day. Take care everyone! See you tomorrow :o)
Who cares as long as it leaves Florida!!!
We need rain in eastern NC. We've had rain lately but it came hard and fast and now everything is dry again. We need a couple days of steady rain.
Well it might bring more rain to Florida on it's trip back across the southeast.
Then I'm shooting the ........
Girls? UMMMM I'm a KING not QUEEN.
I guess that explains why you type sooooo slow!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVONpzW4guI
Haha Funny. (Sarcasam). I was actually computer model surfing.
Wait...
I didn't know Big Foot was a king?
Yep he rules all the animals and when the humans kill themselves off will become the ruler of the world.
Wow It's late and I'm talking crazy.
Ummmm Gotta talk weather so I don't get banned.
The little gulf low will probably be around for another week at least.
Goodnight all.
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