El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:55 GMT le 05 juin 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Afternoon all

So any thoughts on a potential system out of the Bahamas? Or is the GFS out to lunch again?
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just analyzing satellite imagery with our current Western Caribbean disturbance and it appears that a very well-defined circulation center has become much more evident. Based upon the satellite presentation, it would have you believe this is a surface circulation, but the observations don't back that up. I will be watching this throughout the day.


True, but I'm thinking it's not surface based yet since it's not being reflected at the surface by obs and QuikSCAT.

While, development is a possibility, that is not at the top of my agenda right now, it's the rain.
Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting futuremet:
Weatherstudent

I am glad you finally revealed yourself.

Great display of integrity. ;)


Thanks man!
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For anyone who would like to read more here is the link:

Link

The article is located in the AMS journals.
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12Z GFS rams Florida again
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
I was wrong. GFS develops our Caribbean disturbance.

Might be a repeat of the 0Z track...can't tell right now though.


weak low through south florida.Looks like moisture might be on the increase next week.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



no Levi32 was takeing too Acemmett90


i said the wind shear is too high


then Levi32 said tooo Acemmett90



And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone





Ooh, OK, well then, I apologies to all three of y'all then. Case close.
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WE BETTER REMEMBER THE GFS NAILED IT DEVELOPING BERTHA LAST YEAR 2008 IN JULY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. JUST REMEMBER.
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Weatherstudent

I am glad you finally revealed yourself.

Great display of integrity. ;)
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Thanks H23 - appreciate your time.

The other interesting tidbit was that a lot of the warning efforts changed leading up to the world wars, because of the munition factories. Seems that lightening strikes would set off explosions, injuring and killing the workers. So they set up spotters to get early warnings out so they could evacuate the plants before the severe storms.

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2108- We go through that every year. LOL

Weather has cycle's and so does the blog. Its a fact of life and there is no getting around it.
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
12Z GFS is expecting this system to move SE at one time. This may be due to a quasi-fujiwhara effect, as a weak low forms east of it.
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And why are we argueing becasue i was not trying to start something
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Quoting Levi32:


And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone.



no Levi32 was takeing too Acemmett90


i said the wind shear is too high


then Levi32 said tooo Acemmett90



And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone


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Quoting zoomiami:
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.


I sent a responce via email and and here on the blog.
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And Levi32. He's one of the sane ones, lol
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Quoting zoomiami:
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.


Did not know that! Wow!
Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5393
Well Well some of you guys are thinking you have power over mother nature. Just yesterday we had a different tune than today. Now let's suppose the area starts getting organize, many quotes willchange from:

Development does not seem likely next week to development chances seem to be increasing.

Showers have diminish, no sense monitoring the situation to showers are increasing, looks like an invest or tropical storm is on the way.

Wind shear is to high, the season is a dud to our 2nd named storm by July 7, that's almost the same as 2008.

Only a few on here seem to have a levelled headed view towards this, namely, hurricane23, IKE, StormW and W456.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



levi32 is not teasing me WeatherStudent so am not sure where you geting that from why not you stay out of thing dos not coner you and you go about your business and stay out of ares you get in too a lot of pole business you need to start looking at the commets more be for you start saying any thing


Have it you're way, Taz! You just lost a friend.
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Quoting zoomiami:
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.


Yup..I heard about that on the Weather Channel. I think the Military complained about the ban when a tornado struck a base, saying they never want to be surprised again.
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just analyzing satellite imagery with our current Western Caribbean disturbance and it appears that a very well-defined circulation center has become much more evident. Based upon the satellite presentation, it would have you believe this is a surface circulation, but the observations don't back that up. I will be watching this throughout the day.


I agree, WeatherMan. We shouldn't turn our backs on this little critter, at least not quite yet anyways.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


I second that, Levi32! Stop teasing Taz, alright?



levi32 is not teasing me WeatherStudent so am not sure where you geting that from why not you stay out of thing dos not coner you and you go about your business and stay out of ares you get in too a lot of pole business you need to start looking at the commets more be for you start saying any thing
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I was wrong. GFS develops our Caribbean disturbance.

Might be a repeat of the 0Z track...can't tell right now though.
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2102. sfla82
Quoting JRRP:
I will not change my forecast
12-7-4


9-4-1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



WeatherStudent %100 of the time i dont no what you are taking about march most of the time you dont make senes at all


Yo Taz, what's up, bud? I just came to your rescue and this is how you repay me? Secondly, I was siding with what Levi32 had just said about you, not disagreeing with the man. :)
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2099. JRRP
I will not change my forecast
12-7-4
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Just analyzing satellite imagery with our current Western Caribbean disturbance and it appears that a very well-defined circulation center has become much more evident. Based upon the satellite presentation, it would have you believe this is a surface circulation, but the observations don't back that up. I will be watching this throughout the day.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



WeatherStudent %100 of the time i dont no what you are taking about march most of the time you dont make senes at all


LOL

Hi Taz - always nice to read your posts
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


I second that, Levi32! Stop teasing Taz, alright?



WeatherStudent %100 of the time i dont no what you are taking about march most of the time you dont make senes at all
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2095. sfla82
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ok I'll bite.
14 named storms, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Major.
Anyone calling this season a bust in early June should be ignored.


LOL!
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Quoting Weather456:
Kingston, Jamaica....Mostly cloudy


heavy clouds are rolling in from the south. And it just got dark
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Quoting Levi32:


And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone.


I second that, Levi32! Stop teasing Taz, alright?
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2092. Patrap
June Busters as common as June Bugs



They usually last only a few days or a week at best
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
Quoting sfla82:


Yeah it is supposed to get hot here in S. Fla today!!!

and we will get alot more thuderstorms
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2090. Drakoen
Looks like the wave axis in the extreme eastern Caribbean may be a in adding vorticity to the area making it harder for the low to get organized. Two vort maximums at work.
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30595
2089. sfla82
Quoting Acemmett90:
Things are Heating UP


Yeah it is supposed to get hot here in S. Fla today!!!
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Ok I'll bite.
14 named storms, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Major.
Anyone calling this season a bust in early June should be ignored.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24449
Kingston, Jamaica....Mostly cloudy

Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2086. JRRP
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2085. Levi32
Quoting Acemmett90:
Taz Your being to sinnicle anything could happen keep in mind the season is unpredictible


And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
comma shape seems to be forming east of south Florida, I believe the AOI east of S. Florida will combine with the system south of Jamaica.
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2083. K8eCane
I keep trying to do some cleaning but every time i take a cigarette break (yes i have that nasty nasty habit) i have to come see what the latest is as if something is going to change in an hour....HELP...
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2082. sfla82
Its opinion... Its an El Nino year and usually in an El Nino yr your might not even get 1 that hits land much less 6. So maybe your being irresponsible...LOL. I am just saying its a down yr and I will go out on a limb and say we won't see 6 storms hit land, unless it's the Azores.
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Taz Your being to sinnicle anything could happen keep in mind the season is unpredictible
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Quoting Tazmanian:



too march wind shear
that is true, just wait until the Jet stream slips through.
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Quoting Patrap:
big storms approaching me here in Miami.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
Things are Heating UP



too march wind shear
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2077. Patrap
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea the mid level circulation is great and all but there is still shear from the upper trough.


Agreed
Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2075. sfla82
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
GFS is up to 84 hours now. Probably end up developing the blob near Haiti.


It is the GFS though...So no worries there.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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