Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting leftovers:
just because drjeff masters is on the bandwagon does not mean its going to happen. i did notice he is not using percentages this time. the odds are now higher that is will happen

Geez he might even be wishcasting I guess too? lol

They ought to design the Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit voice recorders so that they breakaway and float.

Here comes the 12Z GFS.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
They ought to design the Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit voice recorders so that they breakaway and float.

To make them "breakaway", they would have to be mounted externally, which puts them more at risk for damage during a crash. Right now, they are in the interior of the aircraft, in a fairly protected area, which helps their survivability. Considering how many aircraft crashes are over land or shallow water rather than deep waters in the middle of the ocean, it doesn't make sense to design something just for a small percentage of crashes, at the detriment of the majority of crashes.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
They ought to design the Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit voice recorders so that they breakaway and float.

Seems like a good idea, but I wonder... at what point would it break away? Too early and pertinent data might not be included.

Wasn't Andrew during a El Nino year? if so it doesnt matter if theres less storms, your still screwed

Yes. Andrew was during a Nino year. There were only 6 storms, and I believe Andrew was the only one to make landfall.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Latest jet stream analysis

Egad that is a massive ridge over Alaska.

just add multiple boxes... not that hard. One on top of fuselage, one on bottom, and the current one. All recording same data, of course. spherical containers will help survivability, due to the inherent strength of a sphere. essentially have a tube with a pop top that comes off once exposed to sea water- lifeboats have them. Sea anchor on the sphere helps as well. Would not be hard.

Alicia in 83 that hit Galveston was a El Nino year too

"FDR" Flight DATA Recorder and the "CVR",Cockpit Voice Recorder..are Bright International Rescue Orange...not Black, Thats a carry over term used for the avionics boxes that were rough coated in the analog days for Aircraft, Unrelated to the CVR and FDR.

The term is a bad misnomer,hated by Aviation and always used by the Media.



Aviation Topics.
Cockpit Voice Recorders (CVR) and Flight Data Recorders (FDR)

Large commercial aircraft and some smaller commercial, corporate, and private aircraft are required by the FAA to be equipped with two "black boxes" that record information about a flight. Both recorders are installed to help reconstruct the events leading to an aircraft accident. One of these, the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), records radio transmissions and sounds in the cockpit, such as the pilot's voices and engine noises. The other, the Flight Data Recorder (FDR), monitors parameters such as altitude, airspeed and heading. The older analog units use one-quarter inch magnetic tape as a storage medium and the newer ones use digital technology and memory chips. Both recorders are installed in the most crash survivable part of the aircraft, usually the tail section.

Each recorder is equipped with an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB) to assist in locating in the event of an overwater accident. The device called a "pinger", is activated when the recorder is immersed in water. It transmits an acoustical signal on 37.5 KHz that can be detected with a special receiver. The beacon can transmit from depths down to 14,000 feet.

Following an accident, both recorders are immediately removed from the accident site and transported to NTSB headquarters in Washington D.C. for processing. Using sophisticated computer and audio equipment, the information stored on the recorders is extracted and translated into an understandable format. The Investigator-in-Charge uses this information as one of many tools to help the Safety Board determine the Probable Cause of the accident.

Quoting charlottefl:
Yes. Andrew was during a Nino year. There were only 6 storms, and I believe Andrew was the only one to make landfall.

Only hurricane. TD 1 hit Florida and TS Danielle hit the mid Atlantic states.

Quoting vortfix:
We should replace all flight recorders with flight data transmitters.
That way we would already have all the data from that flight and know exactly where to look!

Precisely!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting vortfix:
We should replace all flight recorders with flight data transmitters.
That way we would already have all the data from that flight and know exactly where to look!

Flight Data recorders monitor 88 separate data points. If they take a sample every second, and each sample is 50 bytes, (400 bits) you are looking at 4400 bytes per second, per plane. (34.37 Kbps) Thats basically a normal modem. But... now we consider the fact that there are several thousand planes in the air around the world at any time. Those planes are flying all over the world, for all kinds of airlines.

You are then left with the following issues:
1. Bandwidth (how to transmit, where to recieve)
2. Responsibility for storing the data (airline, flight origin, flight destination, country overflying?)
3. Data accuracy (loss of data in flight)
4. More handoffs (more handoffs within the plane = more chances for data loss/error)
5. Chance of aircraft operating, but data transmission lost (think solar storms)
6. Cost (refitting every commerical aircraft in the world - do YOU want to pay that surcharge?)
7. Is there a real need for it? What we have now works in 90-95% of airline crashes.

Well,those wireless Links dont always have a Line of Sight to a TDRS satellite or Other receiving base/station.And a Data Dropout can occur and lotsa folks have suggested it,but we dont have a Global Network to support it. Nice idea,but not practical in Dollars is the word on that.
Even the Highest tech vehicle,the Shuttles,..have periods of LOS on orbit.


So the Industry uses what they have and its been a good system for years,..except in these rare tragic events.

Interesting vort moving out into Gulf south of Lake Charles on visible loop

I recind my earlier "ghost storm" comment since the doc seems pretty confident.

Does anyone know how much each FDR and CVR costs? Or even a ballpark?

See?!?!?!?!?!

Details always get in the way of a good idea...

Pat...check your ouside e-mail for info on a cool new technology...

12Z GFS is a little slower than the 12Z NAM.

NAM 84 hours.

GFS 84 hours.

Lotsa good Patent Ideas in the pipe for many Aviation related items.

US Patent 7099752 - Safelander
US Patent Issued on August 29, 2006

BACKGROUND

This invention relates to a remote pilot, located on the ground in a high fidelity virtual reality simulator, taking control of a civilian or military aircraft such as:

a) Executive (small to medium sized) Aircraft

b) Passenger/Carrier Aircraft

c) Cargo Aircraft

in order to provide relief to the aircraft's pilot(s) or to facilitate a safe landing which minimizes the loss of life and property damage from an aircraft that deviates from its air traffic control approved safe trajectory and/or approved flightplan.

Situations arise where an aircraft is piloted in such a way as to put the public in harms way. This can occur from a rogue pilot(s), terrorist(s), and/or problems aboard the aircraft that renders the flight crew incapable of safely piloting theaircraft (e.g.: sudden decompression). An example of the above was the aircraft hijacking that occurred on Sep. 11, 2001 where two commercial carrier aircraft were steered into the World Trade Center, another commercial carrier aircraft into thePentagon and a fourth commercial carrier crashed in Pennsylvania, when its passengers attempted to take control away from the hijackers. Under the 9/11 scenario, with SAFELANDER'S remote pilot(s) located on the ground and using ciphered telemetry, theplanes would be piloted away from large metropolitan areas and safely landed at airfields that minimizes the loss of life to both the persons aboard the aircraft and those located on the ground. Although SAFELANDER potentially wouldn't save all lives,it would substantially reduce the fatality count. SAFELANDER also acts as an effective deterrent to aircraft hijacking, since it eliminates the hijackers' ability to inflict a large number of ground deaths and/or destroy significant edifices.


Plenty more here..including PDF on FDR and CVR

Otay,..press.

hey ike, maybe we can get together and keep an eye out for potenetial donut systems. put out donut alert radios and recruit donut chasers. lol.

That new Two Point system Looks Like a Real Beauty ,..press.


Absolutely.

Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm eastern time 6-5-09

The maritime world uses EPIRB beacons to enhance search and rescue efforts. These are activated either manually or by immersion in water and transmit a number identifying the vessel and the GPS coordinates. A similar device could be applied to aviation. It would continuously update and store its GPS position, but transmit to the satellite only upon activation by the flight crew or by any anomalous condition that would activate a cockpit alarm: excess velocity, equipment failure, etc. This would facilitate SAR in survivable cases and location of the FDR and CVR in fatal cases.

The maritime world uses EPIRB beacons to enhance search and rescue efforts

mine activates if the life raft deploys...it's amazing how many people still sail offshore without one....

Quoting BeachDogDaddy:
The maritime world uses EPIRB beacons to enhance search and rescue efforts. These are activated either manually or by immersion in water and transmit a number identifying the vessel and the GPS coordinates. A similar device could be applied to aviation. It would continuously update and store its GPS position, but transmit to the satellite only upon activation by the flight crew or by any anomalous condition that would activate a cockpit alarm: excess velocity, equipment failure, etc. This would facilitate SAR in survivable cases and location of the FDR and CVR in fatal cases.

If they could make the EPIRB survivable enough, and also set it up so it won't start going off in-flight, it would be excellent. I think the hardest part about that is the survivability issue, as it has to be able to withstand a 500mph impact with water (at anything above about 50mph, the water might as well be a wall of concrete), but also retain its ability to function correctly.
The maritime version of an EPIRB only needs to handle 30-40 mph impacts, and wave action.

Quoting presslord:
The maritime world uses EPIRB beacons to enhance search and rescue efforts

mine activates if the life raft deploys...it's amazing how many people still sail offshore without one....

Anone who goes offshore for any reason without a life raft is just asking for trouble. Even if the water is 80F, you are still at risk of dehydration and hypothermia if in the water long enough. A life raft helps prevent that.

12Z GFS has it interacting with Central America more

Quoting sfla82:
Lets see 80% chance of heavy rain yesterday here in Pompano Beach and no rain at all! Today is 70% chaince of rain for us.....Break out the sun screen.....Should be another dry one!!! LOL

I couldn't have said it any better , even Ron St John mentioned it yesterday that the mets should fess up and admit they screwed up royally this time :)

Day 7 and still stuck in the SW Caribbean- Link

This morning's QuikSCAT continue to show well developed monsoonal flow.

Look at how confused the GFS is still getting with the trough-split. 2nd run in a row with a ghost storm near Haiti:

Quoting Weather456:
12Z GFS has it interacting with Central America more

Now that's more like what we should be seeing, but it is weird how it takes it NNW over Honduras through 96 hours and then backs it almost back to where it started to the SE at 120 lol.

Quoting mossyhead:
hey ike, maybe we can get together and keep an eye out for potenetial donut systems. put out donut alert radios and recruit donut chasers. lol.

Yo bud.


Looks like the 12Z GFS keeps a low buried in the SW Caribbean...over land.

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm eastern time 6-5-09

Good morning to you also, from a past Homerite!

Based on satellite, the 2 most likely areas for cyclogenesis are right over Panama and southwest of Costa Rica, shown as the two 850mb vort maxes here:

Quoting Haapoja:

Good morning to you also, from a past Homerite!

Hey that's awesome! Don't get many Homerites in here =)

Quoting Levi32:
Based on satellite, the 2 most likely areas for cyclogenesis are right over Panama and southwest of Costa Rica, shown as the two 850mb vort maxes here:

The odds of a system that far south ever affecting the USA are slim and none.

Other areas...yes, but the USA, probably not.

Quoting Levi32:
Look at how confused the GFS is still getting with the trough-split. 2nd run in a row with a ghost storm near Haiti:





Now that's more like what we should be seeing, but it is weird how it takes it NNW over Honduras through 96 hours and then backs it almost back to where it started to the SE at 120 lol.

Yea it is confused alright.
There is no telling where it may go until it develops.If it develops.

Quoting IKE:


The odds of a system that far south ever affecting the USA are slim and none.

Other areas...yes, but the USA, probably not.

True but you have to realize that the whole mess is just sitting there, it ain't going anywhere. As the sub-tropical jetstream lifts north during the next 5 days and the upper trough from Florida digs in creating a weakness in the upper ridge, the whole area will drift north or northwest into Central America or the western Caribbean. Thereafter the road to the north is open.

I don't see a trough split. The departure of the trough looks fine to me. It looks like low level high pressure prevents the system from advance northward. The flow around the eastern periphery could induce and more easterly or slightly southerly movement.

Quoting Weather456:
This morning's QuikSCAT continue to show well developed monsoonal flow.

Defiantly appearing a possibility that something will pop by tuesday down there. Well, we'll just watch and wait.

Wouldn't doubt we know each other, after all Homer is a small town :)

Quoting Drakoen:
I don't see a trough split. The departure of the trough looks fine to me. It looks like low level high pressure prevents the system from advance northward. The flow around the eastern periphery could induce and more easterly or slightly southerly movement.

Look here south of the Carolinas.....it's pretty far north and east on the model for a typical trough split but it is one. The GFS sends another little piece into the NW Caribbean. A couple days ago it was sending the whole thing down in there. It splits the energy everywhere into fractured pieces. I don't think it has a good handle on it, and most models don't until it's right on top of them.

Look here south of the Carolinas


AAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!