El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.
Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.
Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.
I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
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That's how it should be.
Hmm....you really love that system don't you lol. I should never have mentioned that it was warm-core over the gulf =P
Well it's nearly stacked with the upper cut-off low over north Florida. The GFS has no handle on it whatsoever so I'm not even gonna try to describe what it does with it. I'm gonna be my own model and say that it should drift slowly towards the south or SE for a while, and may split into two pieces with one piece heading down into the Caribbean and the other piece going towards the NE eventually getting picked up by the westerlies.
I won't even let the thought of sub-tropical development east of Florida enter my mind...
ESL by LSU
TPC is always on board lol 24hrs a day 7 days a week.Just cause theres no mention does not mean the current forcaster on duty is not monitering the area.I concur with there view on the situation no immediate threat for development as proximity to land should hamper things for a while.
2. is ment for elsewhere in the Atlantic/Carribean/GOM
Interesting though.
The area of heavy rains south-east of Trinidad is still building. Looking good.
They are not saying that it won't develop. They are saying that development is not expected within the next 48hours.
Also remember now this is up to 48hrs...and even the GFS shows no development within the next 96hrs..only a broad low pressure!
True
Yeah that's a nice little upper-level low there lol. It's gonna move off with the sub-tropical jet to the east.
Tropical Wave, upper winds too unfavorable
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC011-086-061815-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0056.090606T1717Z-090606T1815Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
117 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 112 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
FROM PENNSUCO TO MIRAMAR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
COOPER CITY...
NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY...
PLANTATION...
HOLLYWOOD...
HALLANDALE...
LAUDERHILL...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.
LAT...LON 2597 8012 2586 8055 2631 8029 2626 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 241DEG 11KT 2605 8026
$$
GR
But they still give it a 30% chance anyways LOL? Usually they would say "Elsewhere, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the enxt 48 hours"
Hey, we've been talking about how the NHC isn't perfect lol.
wait watch see mode activated
LOL
Yeah it is, what are the chances of a TD formin wit the low that is sittin off the coast of SC and Georgia?
I'm not even thinking about that.
For one thing it's not off the coast it's over northern Florida/southern Georgia. I don't think it has much of a chance at all. Too much dry air and high surface pressures building in from the east. Anything would be sub-tropical but I don't think it's worth thinking about.
Bring me my Cat 5 800mb 300mph now.
In response to 1182...Levi just answered that for us...or not... :~)
Are you serious?
The bodies found today from the aircraft that went down on Monday (5 days ago).
Not to sound macabre or anything, but it seems to me a long time for bodies to float. Initially, bodies sink, and float only when decomposition starts, and gasses are released into the body cavity.
If the bodies were inside the aircraft when it hit water, they would have gone down to 12,000 feet. Where the water temps are pretty cold. Delaying decomposition.
If the bodies were thrown from the aircraft before or during impact, they would sink (how deep, I'm not sure), then float as above.
But in any case, 5 days seems a long time, to me, for a body to float, before sinking forever.
Anyone have any knowledge on this ?
Its called a joke.
You can't be serious...
Did you just start tracking the tropics today? TD 1 was a couple of weeks ago. And where is it "official" we have 93L.
I believe whenever something is mentioned in the TWO it usually becomes an invest, but if it is it will take time for the Navy site and SSD site to put it up.
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