Sea level rise: what has happened so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:05 GMT le 10 juin 2009

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Sea level has been rising globally since the late 1700s. This rise has accelerated in recent decades, thanks to increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets due to a warmer climate, plus the fact that warmer oceans are less dense and expand, further increasing sea level. Though sea level rise appears to have slowed over the past five years, it will significantly accelerate if the climate warms the 2 - 3°C it is expected to this century. If these forecasts of a warmer world prove accurate, higher sea levels will be a formidable challenge for millions of people world-wide during the last half of this century. Sea level rise represents one of my personal top two climate change concerns (drought is the other). I'll present a series of blog posts over the coming months focusing on at-risk areas in the U.S., Caribbean, and world-wide. Today, I focus on the observed sea level rise since the Ice Age.

What's at stake
Higher sea levels mean increased storm surge inundation, coastal erosion, loss of low-lying land areas, and salt water contamination of underground drinking water supplies. About 44% of the Earth's 6.7 billion people live within 150 km (93 miles) of the coast, and 600 million people live at an elevation less than ten meters (33 feet). Eight of the ten largest cities in the world are sited on the ocean coast. In the U.S., the coastal population has doubled over the past 50 years. Fourteen of the twenty largest urban centers are located within 100 km of the coast, and are less than ten meters above sea level (McGranahan et al., 2007). The population of many vulnerable coastal regions are expected to double by 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Sea level rise since the Ice Age
Before the most recent Ice Age, sea level was about 4 - 6 meters (13 - 20 feet) higher than at present. Then, during the Ice Age, sea level dropped 120 meters (395 ft) as water evaporated from the oceans precipitated out onto the great land-based ice sheets. The former ocean water remained frozen in those ice sheets during the Ice Age, but began being released 12,000 - 15,000 years ago as the Ice Age ended and the climate warmed. Sea level increased about 115 meters over a several thousand year period, rising 40 mm/year (1.6"/yr) during one 500-year pulse of melting 14,600 years ago. The rate of sea level rise slowed to 11 mm/year (0.43"/yr) during the period 7,000 - 14,000 years ago (Bard et al., 1996), then further slowed to 0.5 mm/yr 6,000 - 3,000 years ago. About 2,000 - 3,000 years ago, the sea level stopped rising, and remained fairly steady until the late 1700s (IPCC 2007). One exception to this occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present (Grinsted et al., 2008). This was probably the highest the sea has been since the beginning of the Ice Age, 110,000 years ago. There is a fair bit of uncertainty in all these estimates, since we don't have direct measurements of the sea level.


Figure 1. Global sea level from 200 A.D. to 2000, as reconstructed from proxy records of sea level by Moberg et al. 2005. The thick black line is reconstructed sea level using tide gauges (Jevrejeva, 2006). The lightest gray shading shows the 5 - 95% uncertainty in the estimates, and the medium gray shading denotes the one standard deviation error estimate. The highest global sea level of the past 110,000 years likely occurred during the Medieval Warm Period of 1100 - 1200 A.D., when warm conditions similar to today's climate caused the sea level to rise 5 - 8" (12 - 21 cm) higher than present. Image credit: Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

Sea level rise over the past 300 years
Direct measurements of sea level using tide gauges began in Amsterdam in 1700. Additional tide gauges began recording data in Liverpool, England in 1768 and in Stockholm, Sweden in 1774. These gauges suggest that a steady acceleration of sea rise of 0.01 mm per year squared began in the late 1700s, resulting in a rise in sea level of 2.4" (6 cm, 0.6 mm/yr) during the 19th century and 7.5" (19 cm, 1.9 mm/yr) during the 20th century (Jevrejeva et al., 2008). There is considerable uncertainty in just how much sea level rise has occurred over the past few centuries, though. Measuring global average sea level rise is a very tricky business. For starters, one must account for the tides, which depend on the positions of the Earth and Moon on a cycle that repeats itself once every 18.6 years. Tide gauges are scattered, with varying lengths of record. The data must be corrected since land is sinking in some regions, due to pumping of ground water, oil and gas extraction, and natural compaction of sediments. Also, the land is rising in other regions, such as Northern Europe, where it is rebounding from the lost weight of the melted glaciers that covered the region during the last Ice Age. Ocean currents, precipitation, and evaporation can cause a 20 inch (50 cm) difference in sea level in different portions of the ocean. As a result of all this uncertainty, the 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report gave a range of 4 - 10" (10 - 25 cm) for the observed sea level rise of the 20th century. The 2007 IPCC report narrowed this range a bit, to 5 - 9" (12 - 22 cm), or 1.2 - 2.2 mm/year. Rates of sea level rise are much higher in many regions. In the U.S., the highest rates of sea-level rise are along the Mississippi Delta region--over 10 mm/yr, or 1 inch/2.5 years (USGS, 2006). This large relative rise is due, in large part, to the fact that the land is sinking.


Figure 2. Absolute sea level rise between 1955 and 2003 as computed from tide gauges and satellite imagery data. The data has been corrected for the rising or sinking of land due to crustal motions or subsidence of the land, so the relative sea level rise along the coast will be different than this. The total rise (in inches) for the 48-year period is given in the top scale, and the rate in mm/year is given in the bottom scale. The regional sea level variations shown here resulted not only from the input of additional water from melting of glaciers and ice caps, but also from changes in ocean temperature and density, as well as changes in precipitation, ocean currents, and river discharge. Image credit: IPCC, 2007

Sea level rise over the past 15 years
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, sea level accelerated from the 1.2 - 2.2 mm/yr observed during the 20th century to 3.1 mm/year during the period 1993 - 2003. These estimates come from high resolution measurements from satellite radar altimeters, which began in 1992. Tide gauges showed a similar level of sea level rise during that ten-year period. The IPCC attributed more than half of this rise (1.6 mm/yr) to the fact that the ocean expanded in size due to increased temperatures. Another 1.2 mm/yr rise came from melting of Greenland, West Antarctica, and other land-based ice, and about 10% of the rise was unaccounted for. However, during the period 2003 - 2008, sea level rise slowed to 2.5 mm/year, according to measurements of Earth's gravity from the GRACE satellites (Cazenave et al., 2008). This reduction in sea level rise probably occurred because ocean sea surface temperatures have not warmed since 2003 (Figure 3). The authors concluded that sea level rise due to ocean warming decreased more than a factor of five from 2003 - 2008, compared to 1993 - 2003, contributing only 0.3 mm/yr vs. the 1.6 mm/yr previously.


Figure 3. Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1990-2008. SSTs have not increased in the past seven years. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

For more information
The best source of information I found while compiling my sea level pages was the Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region report by the U.S. Climate Science Program. It has a huge number of references to all the latest science being done on sea level rise.

References
Bard, E., et al., 1996, "Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge", Nature 382, pp241-244, doi:10.1038/382241a0.

Cazenave et al., 2008, "Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from satellite altimetry and Argo", Global and Planetary Change, 2008; DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.004

Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, 996 pp.

Jevrejeva, S., J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted,, and P.L. Woodworth, 2008, "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?", Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008.

McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Moberg, A., et al., 2005, "Highly variable northern hemisphere temperature reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data", Nature 433, pp613-617, doi:10.1038/nature03265.

United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2006, National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-179.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and the only region worth watching is the Western Caribbean, which could see formation of a tropical disturbance with heavy thunderstorm activity this weekend.

Jeff Masters

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I see that all of the computer forecast models with the exception of the UKMET forecast for development. Conditions for cyclogenesis will be favorable 3-4 days from now.
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
You shall eat how much crow if it does not come true?
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If anyone has any objections, please post it.

From Futuremet Productions:

Why is moist air less dense than dry air?



Original Script:

Okay, so why is moist air less dense than dry air? Would it more sense that drier is less dense since it is less concentrated than moist air?
In this tutorial, we will learn why moist air is less dense, because this baffles many forecasters.
In order to understand this, we need to know a little bit of basic chemistry, and need to know about diatomic elements. As most of us know, gases are extremely light and need to be in pairs to be more stable. There are seven diatomic elements and they are: H2, N2, O2, F2, Cl2, I2, Br2, which are: hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, fluorine, chlorine, iodine and bromine. The most common gases in our atmosphere are Nitrogen and oxygen. Now Oxygen has an approximate atomic mass of 16, and nitrogen has an approximate atomic mass of 14. Now because they are in diatomic (di=double) , the typical atomic mass for oxygen is 32, and is 28 for nitrogen.
Water Vapor H2O has an atomic mass of 18. That is because Hydrogen only has only an atomic mass of 1 since it is the lightest element, and remember, Oxygen has an atomic mass of 16. In a water molecule, there are two hydrogen atoms; one at each side of the large Oxygen atom. So by adding the two hydrogen atoms and the oxygen atom, we will have a total atomic mass of 18 (1 1 16). With an atomic mass unit of 18, H2O is much lighter than diatomic Oxygen (32) and Nitrogen (28). Therefore the more water vapor that is available, the more the density of the air will decrease. Due to the fact that moist air is lighter than dry air, it is more buoyant, and will rise if a dry air mass is pushing against it. A good example of why moist air is susceptible to vertical motion is when an inflated balloon is placed in a tank of water. The balloon will rise as it is being displaced by the denser liquid; it would still try to rise even if you push against it.
Dry Lines
Now let us what happens when dry and moist air are placed side by side.
A dry line is the perfect example of moist air being less dense than drier air. A dry line is a region of substantial moisture gradient, which means that the humidity changes significantly over a small distance. Mesoscale convective complexes, squall lines, and even supercells tend to be associated with dry lines. That is why veteran storm chasers always look for areas of strong moisture gradient to determine the instability. A dry line is somewhat quasi-baroclinic, since the dry air pushes against the lighter moister air, forcing it to rise. Even without the aid of cold fronts, they still have adequate instability to kindle thunderstorm formation.
Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree that climatology is but one tool in the dynamic of forecasting. No two years are ever the same given all the variables with atmospheric conditions, surface conditions etc.

That's what makes the watching and waiting so exciting.


Yup...interested to see what this season holds. El Nino will probably cap its storm total potential.
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting extreme236:


Good points, but behavior with cyclones and their frequency (as you mentioned) haven't really followed along with climatology. Certainly something to pay attention to, but not the end all.


I agree that climatology is but one tool in the dynamic of forecasting. No two years are ever the same given all the variables with atmospheric conditions, surface conditions etc.

That's what makes the watching and waiting so exciting.
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527. JRRP
Quoting sebastianflorida:
All quiet, maybe something to look at in mid to late July 2010; most 2009 storms will be fish storms, that is what the Janitor guy at my Mcdonalds was telling the patron that was about 100 years old today. I was impressed that they knew all that.

really????
well ....
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Quoting kmanislander:


Until we see a sustained period of departure from the norm then, IMO , climatology as established cannot be substituted by a new norm.
We are in period of heightened activity and to that extent climatology must be modified but over the course of a season the last few years have largely held true to form. As they say, it is the exception that makes the rule.

There will be the odd anomaly, such as Bertha last year, but on the whole I don't think anyone can say there has been a radical shift in climatology.


Good points, but behavior with cyclones and their frequency (as you mentioned) haven't really followed along with climatology. Certainly something to pay attention to, but not the end all.
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Well hopefully this time tomorrow we will have TD-02 in the Carribbean

Ha lol, sorry just not happening
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looks like epac system is getting its act together nicely. Outflow channels have opened up, especially on east side and convection is really flaring over the center. Most likely will be a depression by morning, and if convection holds through tomorrow, a TS.
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Quoting extreme236:


Not that I really disagree with this, but I can't help but give climatology less emphasis in given recent years, but maybe this year will be different.


Until we see a sustained period of departure from the norm then, IMO , climatology as established cannot be substituted by a new norm.
We are in period of heightened activity and to that extent climatology must be modified but over the course of a season the last few years have largely held true to form. As they say, it is the exception that makes the rule.

There will be the odd anomaly, such as Bertha last year, but on the whole I don't think anyone can say there has been a radical shift in climatology.
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Quoting Chicklit:

hahaha...but not for long.
Dr. Masters goes on vacation next week :)



he is???
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Weather Predicting is a theroy not fact so stop argueing
All quiet, maybe something to look at in mid to late July 2010; most 2009 storms will be fish storms, that is what the Janitor guy at my Mcdonalds was telling the patron that was about 100 years old today. I was impressed that they knew all that.
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Quoting reedzone:
Another Dericho event, this time in Texas, my prayers go out to those out there, reports are interesting. As for the WC disturbance, shear is strong, until it lightens up, no development.


Agreed...Strong westerly shear blowing through the caribbean.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I completed a Tropical Update this morning....

Named Storm coming on or before June 19th!

Nice JOb with the blog
510. Chicklit 1:04 AM GMT on June 11, 2009

Hi Chicklit

Slow June so far with the usual convective " blow ups " ( aka BLOBS LOL )

Strong SW shear still rules N of Panama with no sign of easing. There is a pocket of low shear attempting to migrate down from the NW Caribbean and this could happen if we see the trough "cut off" as some of the models are calling for.

June 1st means nothing to mother nature. Just a date on the calender.
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I completed a Tropical Update this morning....

Named Storm coming on or before June 19th!
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Quoting Vortex95:
505. many are still in 2005 mode :P


I disagree with this.
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting kmanislander:
Given the infrequent formation of June cyclones expectations need to be tempered with climatological reality.


Not that I really disagree with this, but I can't help but give climatology less emphasis in given recent years, but maybe this year will be different.
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
505. many are still in 2005 mode :P
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Quoting Vortex95:
All wind would 77+ on the wind reports via NWS.

mph convesion is kts times 1.18 or 1.15?


1.15

That SPC page reports in MPH, though.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Given the infrequent formation of June cyclones expectations need to be tempered with climatological reality.

hope you sure about the wind shear sticking around
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb.jpg
Quoting kmanislander:
Given the infrequent formation of June cyclones expectations need to be tempered with climatological reality.

succinct! bravo.
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509. viman
I agree with kman
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Quoting Vortex95:
All wind would 77+ on the wind reports via NWS.

mph convesion is kts times 1.18 or 1.15?


1.15
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
...aaaahhh, global warming! That means the tropics are all quiet! ;)

hahaha...but not for long.
Dr. Masters goes on vacation next week :)
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All wind would 77+ on the wind reports via NWS.

mph convesion is kts times 1.18 or 1.15?
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Given the infrequent formation of June cyclones expectations need to be tempered with climatological reality.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

Shaq Fives lol

looks like the first low has taken the second one and the blob has rised from the died
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
Another Dericho event, this time in Texas, my prayers go out to those out there, reports are interesting. As for the WC disturbance, shear is strong, until it lightens up, no development.
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IMO it seems Category 5's are more common than EF-5s.
Since the beginning of the Decade we've seen 9 Category 5s, since 1999 we've only seen 2 EF-5s.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
Quoting Vortex95:
What are more comman cat 5's of ef5's?

Shaq Fives lol
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
...aaaahhh, global warming! That means the tropics are all quiet! ;)


Are you absolutely certain that our favorite topic wouldn't be covered if there was? I am not so sure, any more.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The existence of an area of low pressure already may mean one of two things. Either the low that was forecasted to develop has done so already OR the current stationary low is not the forecasted low that MAY produce a cyclone.

In any event the upper level environment is too hostile for tropical cyclone development in the near term.


Which is why they say the earliest this disturbance will form is 54-60 hours, with any development being gradual, but with conditions being favorable for convective organization.
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
264

WHXX01 KMIA 110047

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0047 UTC THU JUN 11 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090611 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090611 0000 090611 1200 090612 0000 090612 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.5N 117.7W 12.7N 119.2W 14.0N 120.4W 15.2N 121.2W

BAMD 11.5N 117.7W 12.3N 119.3W 13.4N 120.7W 14.7N 121.6W

BAMM 11.5N 117.7W 12.4N 119.2W 13.5N 120.5W 14.6N 121.4W

LBAR 11.5N 117.7W 12.4N 118.9W 14.1N 120.3W 15.9N 121.4W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090613 0000 090614 0000 090615 0000 090616 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.5N 121.8W 19.4N 121.2W 21.4N 121.0W 23.0N 118.8W

BAMD 16.2N 121.9W 20.0N 121.6W 23.8N 119.6W 28.7N 112.3W

BAMM 15.9N 122.0W 18.9N 122.5W 21.4N 122.9W 24.0N 121.4W

LBAR 18.3N 122.1W 25.0N 119.8W 34.4N 106.8W 38.9N 88.8W

SHIP 47KTS 38KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 47KTS 38KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 117.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 117.0W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 117.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

I will take the models over human error and ego anyday
Keeper those blocks of text are too big
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Looks like there were a lot of 70 - 80 MPH gusts measured by different instruments in north Texas.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
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Quoting extreme236:


HPC estimated an area of low pressure to form within the next 54-60 hours with some possible slow development into a cyclone with favorable conditions. This was estimated to occur in the Cayman island/Jamaican area.


The existence of an area of low pressure already may mean one of two things. Either the low that was forecasted to develop has done so already OR the current stationary low is not the forecasted low that MAY produce a cyclone.

In any event the upper level environment is too hostile for tropical cyclone development in the near term.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
264

WHXX01 KMIA 110047

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0047 UTC THU JUN 11 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090611 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090611 0000 090611 1200 090612 0000 090612 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.5N 117.7W 12.7N 119.2W 14.0N 120.4W 15.2N 121.2W

BAMD 11.5N 117.7W 12.3N 119.3W 13.4N 120.7W 14.7N 121.6W

BAMM 11.5N 117.7W 12.4N 119.2W 13.5N 120.5W 14.6N 121.4W

LBAR 11.5N 117.7W 12.4N 118.9W 14.1N 120.3W 15.9N 121.4W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090613 0000 090614 0000 090615 0000 090616 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.5N 121.8W 19.4N 121.2W 21.4N 121.0W 23.0N 118.8W

BAMD 16.2N 121.9W 20.0N 121.6W 23.8N 119.6W 28.7N 112.3W

BAMM 15.9N 122.0W 18.9N 122.5W 21.4N 122.9W 24.0N 121.4W

LBAR 18.3N 122.1W 25.0N 119.8W 34.4N 106.8W 38.9N 88.8W

SHIP 47KTS 38KTS 21KTS 0KTS

DSHP 47KTS 38KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 117.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 117.0W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 117.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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What are more comman cat 5's of ef5's?
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657

WHXX04 KWBC 082325

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91E



INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 8



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 10.8 116.4 285./ 7.0

6 10.2 117.6 246./12.5

12 11.0 117.7 350./ 7.2

18 11.4 118.4 303./ 7.8



STORM DISSIPATED AT 18 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TX2FL:
Tornadoes are so much scary for me than hurricanes...no time to prepare for this.


They certinally are
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Quoting TX2FL:
Tornadoes are so much scary for me than hurricanes...no time to prepare for this.


Yet more die in hurricanes...
Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
489. TX2FL
Tornadoes are so much scary for me than hurricanes...no time to prepare for this.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not.



did t i say too say yes ??? LOL this kinding

well ok
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Quoting extreme236:


HPC estimated an area of low pressure to form within the next 54-60 hours with some possible slow development into a cyclone with favorable conditions. This was estimated to occur in the Cayman island/Jamaican area.

well the blob did just refire up
486. viman
All the leaves are brown and the sky is gray....
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Quoting kmanislander:
There is a "swirl" in the SW Caribbean because there is a stationary low there. However, shear tendency has also been rising so no likely development before the weekend at the soonest.



HPC estimated an area of low pressure to form within the next 54-60 hours with some possible slow development into a cyclone with favorable conditions. This was estimated to occur in the Cayman island/Jamaican area.
Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
The blob is back
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg
Quoting TX2FL:
Im at work hubby is at home giving me updates. I work at DFW airport and its nuts here we've evacuated everyone from windowed areas. He filmed and took pix..but the power is out or I'd post asap when I get home...

Thanks for the well wishes..makes me wish to be back in Florida!!!


Wow TX2FL. Glad y'all made it through ok.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
...aaaahhh, global warming! That means the tropics are all quiet! ;)

Wrong It actually can get more active

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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