Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A late look at Invest93L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 06:52 GMT le 27 juin 2009

Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters.

Summary of the situation

In the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, most of the models take the cyclone north and east making landfall along a wide swath of Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday of next week. The intensity models predict that at landfall, the system will be a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.

Figure 1. Plot of upper-level wind shear from CIMSS

Wind Shear Aloft

The wind shear patterns are favorable for intensification of Invest93L if it can make it through the Yucatan Straits. Figure 1 shows that currently, Invest93L is an unfavorable environment, with shear > 20 knots. However, north of the Yucatan Straits and SW of Florida, the shear drops to a favorable 5 knots. Both the GFS and NAM predict that that this shear pattern will be fairly constant over the next several days. Also, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either normal or slightly above normal, so that will be favorable for storm development.

What happens next?
If Invest93L can survive long enough to get in the Gulf of Mexico, then I believe it can develop into TS Ana, the first named storm of the year. However, survival is not guaranteed, the convection around Invest93L is not that persistent. That said, people with interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this storm this weekend and into the early part of the next week.

Rob Carver

Categories: Hurricane

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2801. CybrTeddy 12:29 GMT le 28 juin 2009
We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

2802. polarcane 12:31 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Quoting IKE: Same here...everything looks dead from lack of rain and intense heat. Looks like 93L has a shot at hanging in the GOM all week causing numerous arguments on here. Maybe it will spread out to a huge blob that will take up the entire GOM and just rain on everyone and break this heat wave! That is my wishcast for the day! Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 206

2803. 7544 12:31 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience. sure i think we can call that a sure bet but was there ever seson in record that there was not one name storm ? anyone know Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

2804. OnTheFlats 12:32 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Quoting polarcane: Gotta love Bastardi. He is passionate about hurricanes. I know, it's a full on Love/Hate relationship. Member Since: 29 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

2805. Cavin Rawlins 12:33 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Good Morning; Tropical Invest 93L over the Yucatan Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2806. CybrTeddy 12:34 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Quoting 7544: sure i think we can call that a sure bet but was there ever seson in record that there was not one name storm ? anyone know The most inactive season was 1914, 1 named storm and that was a 70 MPH TS. There were likely several other systems. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

2807. polarcane 12:34 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Quoting OnTheFlats: He wouldn't say. He almost didn't want to say anything but the another Met. forced it out of him, he kind of said it on a whim. Then he said to tune into PRO Accuweather for the answer to the landfall. I don't have PRO, I'm better off with Tropical Wunderground. The pro is almost worth it for the videos he puts out. You do get it free for one month or at least you used to. I usually get it around the peak of hurricane season and end up paying for two months and then cancel it during the fall. Probably get it late July or early August. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 206

2808. WPBHurricane05 12:34 GMT le 28 juin 2009
new blog... Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929

2809. OnTheFlats 12:38 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience. I couldn't agree more. That was one strange hurricane season. I was in Ft. Pierce surfing the day before Andrew and the ocean was dead calm and the tide was 2-3 ft. lower than forecast and I had an eerie feeling. On the way home at the corner of Orange Ave. and US 1 in Ft. Pierce, there were 10-15 huge Peacocks running around on US 1 and that's when I knew something serious was going to happen from the storm. Member Since: 29 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

2810. SLU 12:43 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Morning 93L is almost completely gone but there's a chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf. What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better. Member Since: 13 juillet 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2851

2811. OnTheFlats 12:44 GMT le 28 juin 2009
I'm on the SE Florida coast and was wondering what anyones opinion was on that huge blob of the SE coast bringing some rain to us. I am laying new sod on my yard today and the extra rain would be awesome! Member Since: 29 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

2812. OnTheFlats 12:49 GMT le 28 juin 2009
Quoting SLU: Morning 93L is almost completely gone but there's a chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf. What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better. I'm thinking the SST's are a still too cool to support development plust the dry, dusty air just off the coast impedes development until later on in the season Member Since: 29 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

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