Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Would be nice to see Levi, 456, StormW, Drak, and a few others soon....

speaking of Levi check out his blog for his video forecast of this storm it's well worth the 6 minutes

Quoting CycloneOz:
Here's a theoretical what-if:

What if you lived west of Texas...and
What if you liked to hunt hurricanes...and
What if you had a feeling 93L would become a Cat 1 hurricane...and
What if you had a weeks vacation...and
What if you had friends in Pensacola & Tampa...

Question...

Would you leave right now or wait?

Yes!

Looked at the visible loop and there is a lot of shear. Neat to watch one thunderstorm with pretty intense convection and clouds being blown on either side around the convection. That convection probably will back build under the diffluence it is creating. That will give the appearance that the thunderstorms are not moving that fast--but they are. Just reforming on the upwind side of the convection.

With all the shear, the big clouds are all to the north of whatever center this thing has. I saw a little swirl of low level clouds (first time with this thing!) off the coast of Belize. The clouds evaporated but I suspect the swirl if any is in that vicinity.

Shear rules!

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Most of the USA east of the Rockies is in a low pressure environment.

That's a very astute macro thought.
Not sure if it means anything about the future of blobo#2, but I like it.

what time will it launch?

I got a feeling 93L wont become TD2 until the hurricane hunters take a peak at it. You may even see a jump from invest status to TS depending on when they finish taking a look at all the data.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Based upon satellite. Very strong Convection and a Surface Low that will be in place by 11pm in my opinion. Its just above the surface now....look at the 850mb vorticity and divergence returns.

No west wind

Tigers, depends on when Nasa feels that there are no other storms nearby. Check Nasa's site for information, thats the best bet.

Quoting hurricane2009:


850mb and divergence has been in favor of this thing about 3 or 4 times before in the last 2 days and it hasnt formed a surface low

I guess we will see, but even if it builds a surface low now the NHC wants a bit of persistence with this said low, so 11pm would likely be too early

Never had the deep convection before thats the difference before.........

My estimated position for the area of lowest pressure is 21N 87.6W still moving NW.

It will be a few hours before it reemerges over water.

Getting very close to TD Status IMO.

Waiting for Code Red.

Tampa, with the movement to ENE or NE, whats the track then.

As I said before, the storm split in half to avoid land mass and shear from the ULL. Thats classic from last year.

Def thinking code red tonight and TD tomorrow.

Upper divergence is up to 50.

Lower convergence at 15.

850mb Vorticity continues to get stronger.

Wind shear continues to drop.

Quoting hurricane2009:


21N 87.6W?

Yes, a typo. Corrected it.

Quoting FloridaTigers:
what time will it launch?

T minus one minute

Tampa, english please.

here in cayman pressu 1010mb and falling a mb per hour

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Tampa, with the movement to ENE or NE, whats the track then.

As I said before, the storm split in half to avoid land mass and shear from the ULL. Thats classic from last year.

The upper level low is booking out.....LOOK

June 2009 Is Now The 2nd Wettest Denver June

June 2009 has moved into the second wettest June since Denver weather records began in 1872. So far for June 2009...through June 26th...the Denver International Airport (DIA) has measured 4.86 inches of liquid (and there are still 4 more days left in June). The 4.86 inches of water is 3.52 inches above normal through the 26th. Last year...June 2008 had only measured 0.73 inch again through the same June time frame.

The wettest June on record for Denver was in June 1882 when 4.96 inches of moisture was collected in the rain bucket.

For the 2009 year so far, 10.38 inches of water has been measured at DIA which is a very impressive 2.51 inches above the normal through June 26th. Last year in June, only 3.04 inches had been recorded through the same time frame.

Note: The average Denver annual precipitation is 15.81 inches

IR Loop


WV loop

Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Upper divergence is up to 50.

Lower convergence at 15.

850mb Vorticity continues to get stronger.

Wind shear continues to drop.

Alright those links dont work. :(

Maybe this will.

i think our low is east of Benito Suarez, Mexico.

If it stays at code orange, would give a reason why please?

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
here in cayman pressu 1010mb and falling a mb per hour

Pressure here is 1012.3 and steady

So how drastic of a turn is feasible? Anything from big bend to Ft. Myers?

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Tampa, english please.

Right now im not sure the High is going to break down as fast as models are saying...will have a better idea tomorrow late.....but my best guess would be toward Texas/Louisiana

Quoting Acemmett90:
LAstest sat still looks bad for floridians

yea, i think its going to make landfall like fay did in 08' in my opinion if it keeps going NE as we are seeing.

Quoting kingzfan104:
can someone tell me the sign that would make this thing make a more southern landfall, like in s florida if this thing develops? thanks you so much in advance

Too early for an exact turn, but if it develops, the whole west coast of Florida should pay attention.

Does anyone know if the Hurricane hunters are scheduled into this anytime soon?

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE TX
COAST WILL SPLIT LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE SEPARATES FROM ITS PARENT WAVE. THE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS
TONIGHT AND LIE UNDER THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BASICALLY
EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO BEGIN DRIFTING E SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH
A LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. THE LOW HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND LATEST GUIDANCE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SO TONED DOWN THIS
MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE AND TONING DOWN GRAPHICAL PACKAGE IN
PROGRESS.