Two African waves worth mentioning
There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.
A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.
The No. 8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal was issued at
11:30 p.m.
This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per
hour or more are expected from the northwest quarter.
At midnight, Typhoon Molave was centred about 100
kilometres east of Hong Kong Observatory (near 22.4 degrees
north 115.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move
west-northwest at about 24 kilometres per hour in the
general direction of Dapeng Peninsula.
Molave is expected to come very close to Hong Kong between
midnight and daybreak. Gale force winds will generally
affect Hong Kong and there will be heavy rain with squalls.
According to the present track, local winds will turn
southwesterly around daybreak. Places previously sheltered
from the winds will become exposed. Members of the public
should take precautions as soon as possible.
In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Tap Mun and Cheung Chau were 60 and 49 kilometres per hour
with maximum gusts 100 and 69 kilometres per hour
respectively.
"POPS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WAVE AT 00Z WAS ANALYZED BY TAFB AT 58W
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH A MOVEMENT WEST AT 15 KNOTS,
AND ACCORDING TO THE GFS40 AND ECMWF, BRING IT TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS40 TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE
AND HIGH PWATS UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO LIFTS OUT OR WEAKENS BY WEDNESDAY AND THINK THAT THE WAVE
MAY ACTUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN
RATHER HIGH POPS OVER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE
STAYED WITH 50 PERCENT FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN LATER PACKAGES."
Was hoping you would comment and open us a new blog.
Hi everyone, I was still lurking on the prev blog!
Hope everyone is enjoying their Saturday.
Take care and I will lurk when I can.
Gams
"POPS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WAVE AT 00Z WAS ANALYZED BY TAFB AT 58W
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH A MOVEMENT WEST AT 15 KNOTS,
AND ACCORDING TO THE GFS40 AND ECMWF, BRING IT TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.
WHXX01 KWBC 181212
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1212 UTC SAT JUL 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090718 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090718 1200 090719 0000 090719 1200 090720 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 41.8W 12.5N 45.3W 12.9N 48.8W 13.5N 52.2W
BAMD 11.9N 41.8W 12.2N 44.4W 12.4N 46.8W 12.5N 49.4W
BAMM 11.9N 41.8W 12.3N 45.0W 12.5N 48.1W 12.8N 51.0W
LBAR 11.9N 41.8W 12.1N 45.2W 12.0N 48.8W 12.1N 52.3W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090720 1200 090721 1200 090722 1200 090723 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 55.9W 17.3N 63.5W 21.1N 70.5W 24.7N 74.8W
BAMD 13.0N 51.9W 15.0N 57.2W 17.2N 63.1W 18.4N 68.8W
BAMM 13.4N 53.9W 15.7N 60.1W 19.1N 66.7W 21.6N 71.6W
LBAR 12.3N 55.8W 13.6N 62.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 52KTS 56KTS
DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 52KTS 56KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 41.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 38.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 34.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Hi Ike,
not sure we like that; we may could use another inch or two of rain next week but no tropical downpour for sure!
the fact that they ran the model suite tells me that 97L wont get deactivated
POOF
To both the tropical wave and to 97L.
Well I'm off to go do other things but will be back in the next invest/strong tropical wave that actually looks promising.
Your statements have comeback written all over them.
See the discussions posted by Ike.
As mentioned below the T8 is up now.
The No. 8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal was issued at 11:30 p.m.
This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the northwest quarter.
At midnight, Typhoon Molave was centred about 100
kilometres east of Hong Kong Observatory (near 22.4 degrees north 115.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 24 kilometres per hour in the general direction of Dapeng Peninsula.
...
In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Tap Mun and Cheung Chau were 60 and 49 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 100 and 69 kilometres per hour respectively.
This part always cracks me up from the boilerplate message:
4. Flights at Hong Kong International Airport may be affected by the weather. Please contact your airline for the latest flight information before departing for the airport.
The BAM model suite is very simple, and doesn't take much time to run, so they normally run it on any invest until the advisory it is actually deactivated.
Not one person on here knows more than anyone at the NHC, and if you pretend you do or you think you do, then you know SQUAT
If the NHC doesnt say poof, then it ISNT POOF!!!
as long as it has spin its good for a win
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON MOLAVE (T0609)
0:00 AM JST July 19 2009
============================================
Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea
At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Molave (975 hPa) located at 22.4N 115.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity:
Storm Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.5N 109.7E - Tropical Depression
Phew..
The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Jason P. Duniona and Christopher S. Veldenb
a. CIMAS, University of Miami, and NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
b. CIMSS, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-85-3-353
He didn't write them off. He said..."I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days."......
He didn't say anything about the 4th day on...
while things are quiet for now i found 2 videos on youtube that are about 30 min long
1= a lady named cammile
2= a hurricane called betsy
do a search and watch these videos and see what went on back in the 60s
then compare it to katrina/rita/ike.
i went thru both betsy/camile
you can get a sense of how things were done back then and the way things get done now
its very interesting
any comments send them to me at n1rg9@yahoo.com thanks
god gless
rick
n1rg
Your blog is kicking me out when I hit refresh. Not every time...maybe a third of the time. It's been going on for about 2 weeks now. I have to click a couple of links to get back in.
You're #73.
Goodbye:)
I've had the same or similar, but works if I refresh again.
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