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Just looking at the caribbean right now is a classic sign of a maturing nino with this upper trof in place.As of now i dont expect development with wave approaching the northern islands as conditions again are rather hostile.Models try to relax those westerlies in a few days but we'll see.GFS brings the disorganized wave into southern florida mid-week.

Quoting Patrap:
97 is das kaput.

Its behind enough Dry air to make a New Sahara.

It needs to back up into that moisture field.

The Invest due,will be the one here...on Floater 1




But not until the NAVY or NHC calls it.
A floater is always on the Fray early.

Thanks Adrian.

Quoting Patrap:
97 is das kaput.

Its behind enough Dry air to make a New Sahara.
lmao!

Now that we have a lull between invests, it is a good time for everybody to put in how we like our crow cooked. This includes the NHC also

i like mine browned

I think ex invest 97 L will be sucked up into the big blob of convection.

Looking closely on the Viz,FLoater 1..a Circulation is noted west of the Leewards, ahead of the Convective Burst over the Islands,

Floater 1 - Visible Loop

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 18JUL)
=========================================
At 3:00 AM JST, Low Pressure Area (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 135.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 15-20 knots and is reported as almost stationary

Quoting AllStar17:


And I suspect it will never be one. Everytime there is a big blow up of convection, everyone jumps on it, but the entity really to watch is Ex 97L IMO.

97L is still an invest, somehow.

Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


97L is still an invest, somehow.

dropped

Currently the Eastern CONUS is experiencing seasonable cool temperatures thanks in part to a trough dipping across the region. However, this trough will also be involved in initiating a tropical cyclone next week. A trough split situation is expected to coincide with the arrival of the wave as it enters the Western Atlantic. Most models are indicating that the trough will continue to dig south and amplify until a cut-off low forms over the GOM and heads SW. While this occurs, a ridge builds east of this trough split over the SW ATL while at the same the tropical wave will moving through the area. Most of the reliable global models indicate this will spark cyclogenesis and the slow will ride up the USA east of the aforementioned upper trough. During this time, shear is expected to be around 5-15 knots and SSTs are already well above 26C. It seems the next invest will likely be the tropical wave near the islands.

97 has been removed from the NOAA Page as well.


Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery

Das Kaput.

Quoting Weather456:
Currently the Eastern CONUS is experiencing seasonable cool temperatures thanks in part to a trough dipping across the region. However, this trough will also be involved in initiating a tropical cyclone next week. A trough split situation is expected to coincide with the arrival of the wave as it enters the Western Atlantic. Most models are indicating that the trough will continue to dig south and amplify until a cut-off low forms over the GOM and heads SW. While this occurs, a ridge builds east of this trough split over the SW ATL while at the same the tropical wave will moving through the area. Most of the reliable global models indicate this will spark cyclogenesis and the slow will ride up the USA east of the aforementioned upper trough. During this time, shear is expected to be around 5-15 knots and SSTs are already well above 26C. It seems the next invest will likely be the tropical wave near the islands.

Hi Weather456 welcome back

WB from the netherworld 456

Quoting Weather456:
Currently the Eastern CONUS is experiencing seasonable cool temperatures thanks in part to a trough dipping across the region. However, this trough will also be involved in initiating a tropical cyclone next week. A trough split situation is expected to coincide with the arrival of the wave as it enters the Western Atlantic. Most models are indicating that the trough will continue to dig south and amplify until a cut-off low forms over the GOM and heads SW. While this occurs, a ridge builds east of this trough split over the SW ATL while at the same the tropical wave will moving through the area. Most of the reliable global models indicate this will spark cyclogenesis and the slow will ride up the USA east of the aforementioned upper trough. During this time, shear is expected to be around 5-15 knots and SSTs are already well above 26C. It seems the next invest will likely be the tropical wave near the islands.

welcome back 456

Quoting Weather456:
Currently the Eastern CONUS is experiencing seasonable cool temperatures thanks in part to a trough dipping across the region. However, this trough will also be involved in initiating a tropical cyclone next week. A trough split situation is expected to coincide with the arrival of the wave as it enters the Western Atlantic. Most models are indicating that the trough will continue to dig south and amplify until a cut-off low forms over the GOM and heads SW. While this occurs, a ridge builds east of this trough split over the SW ATL while at the same the tropical wave will moving through the area. Most of the reliable global models indicate this will spark cyclogenesis and the slow will ride up the USA east of the aforementioned upper trough. During this time, shear is expected to be around 5-15 knots and SSTs are already well above 26C. It seems the next invest will likely be the tropical wave near the islands.

not sure what i think of all that Weather since i'm on southeast coast

Quoting Weather456:
Currently the Eastern CONUS is experiencing seasonable cool temperatures thanks in part to a trough dipping across the region. However, this trough will also be involved in initiating a tropical cyclone next week. A trough split situation is expected to coincide with the arrival of the wave as it enters the Western Atlantic. Most models are indicating that the trough will continue to dig south and amplify until a cut-off low forms over the GOM and heads SW. While this occurs, a ridge builds east of this trough split over the SW ATL while at the same the tropical wave will moving through the area. Most of the reliable global models indicate this will spark cyclogenesis and the slow will ride up the USA east of the aforementioned upper trough. During this time, shear is expected to be around 5-15 knots and SSTs are already well above 26C. It seems the next invest will likely be the tropical wave near the islands.

Welcome back. Missed you last night with your words of wisdom. Behave yourself now so it doesn't happen again please !

97l continies producing disorganized showers/some tstms.I give it a 60% chance once moving further wes tinto warm ocean/and more moisture condtions being given by the big convection area.

And what is the time frame for this 456? As Dr. Masters stated that the models showed no T.S. for the next seven days....and welcome back!

WB... 456

Welcome back 456!

A Big Welcome Back 456!

Quoting K8eCane:


not sure what i think of all that Weather since i'm on southeast coast

Nothng to worry about now since there is nothing there. Just keep an eye out if anything develops.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And what is the time frame for this 456? As Dr. Masters stated that the models showed no T.S. for the next seven days....and welcome back!

On the chart, the time frame is between 72 hrs and 1 week. I think Dr. Masters posted his update before the 12Z runs, but some models, like the CMC wa showing it since yesterday. I don't really understand what he meant.


And thanks everyone.

Well Im not seeing anything that would be in the Straits thru that time frame 456...

Only East coast Genesis comes out the GOM here.

Notice the wave near the Islands was forecasted to be a Hurricane by the GFS around that area. It's interesting because now that it is forecast to develop in a few days by most of the global models, the GFS was the true model that picked it up first, even though the model dropped it, it's still there and back on the models. I guess if shear can clear out fast enough, this wave will most likely be 98L, the original wave that was forecasted to form in the first place. I'm still giving 97L a chance, but I cans see it getting absorbed into the wave near the Islands. Good to see you back Weather456 :)

That thing off the Windward Islands looks impressive. Was it Faye last year that blew up in the Caribbean and looked threatening on radar but wasn't named because technically, it wasn't a tropical system yet?

Quoting K8eCane:


not sure what i think of all that Weather since i'm on southeast coast

All it means we should monitor that wave. That wave has had model support from day one (when it was near 40W around last Monday), but it was inconsistent at first, not the models seem to think it will develop.

Quoting afj3:
That thing off the Windward Islands looks impressive. Was it Faye last year that blew up in the Caribbean and looked threatening on radar but wasn't named because technically, it wasn't a tropical system yet?

Yes.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes.

Thanks!

Floater 1 - Visible Loop


The only Circulation seen in the Whole Basin is here,west of the Islands..moving W to WNW around 24mph

Quoting Patrap:
Well Im not seeing anything that would be in the Straits thru that time frame 456...

Only East coast Genesis comes out the GOM here.

Well what ur looking at is the 18Z run and only 1 model is out that fast, the NAM, which isn't popular when it comes to tropical cyclones. Also, the models were at the 12Z time frame.

here's the CMC for example.

Im well aware what Im looking at 456,but you drop a Global Suite in here like ,..er..a Bomb,LOL

Thats kinda a water shed run Id say.

Quoting Patrap:
Im well aware what Im looking at 456,but you drop a Global Suite in here like ,..er..a Bomb,LOL

Thats kinda a water shed run Id say.

lol ok

Dont discount the GOM and the Front,..it has a potential for Genesis as much as anything in the Basin as well.

456

What are your thoughts on Ex 97L as it enters the "sweet spot" near the Antilles?

If the invest currently over the islands were to develop what kind of track can we expect ?

Quoting Patrap:
Dont discount the GOM and the Front,..it has a potential for Genesis as much as anything in the Basin as well.

Especially in that water

I think the new broad area of circulation is around 11n 63.5w

Quoting Patrap:
Im well aware what Im looking at 456,but you drop a Global Suite in here like ,..er..a Bomb,LOL

Thats kinda a water shed run Id say.

Lets see what the 00Z runs do.

Disturbance at 101 hours on the GFS. Looks interesting.

Quoting Patrap:
Dont discount the GOM and the Front,..it has a potential for Genesis as much as anything in the Basin as well.

well Pat that looks like it could develop and affect Fla and it looks like it heads straight to where i live too. Im talkin about your cyclogenesis map of the GOM blob there. What would be the strength of that??