97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index
wouldn't be surprised LOL
Thank you so much Sporteguy!
I wasn't paying attention last night so didn't realize what had happened!
Guess I will be checking in here off and on this afternoon.
So glad Dr Masters did his update already.
ok
O o
this ball of convection is impressive
would that mean the upper level trough is expected to move out or dissipate?
I will have to go with the model consensus and the shear pattern over the last 24 hrs. there is a ridge building from Nother SA and that should lift the trough northward.
close call for what?
I'd say pretty even chance for either favorable or unfavorable conditions in the Caribbean when it gets there.
Whether that trough rips it up or not.
Ah ok, guess we will see
Watch the rains from this one Stormdude.
Goodnight alaina1085
C'yas in the morning
And no fighting ya'll
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. . THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Sounds about right, I think we stay in the yellow with the next TWO.
looking at the visible loop I really feel it has slowed down
Doubtful. Probably more like "Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave about X miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional development...and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two as it moves westward at 15-20 MPH. There is a Medium chance...30 to 50 percent...of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
no that's not him. He is Stormno this year, and he doesn't post links or graphics.
That can't help but aid development.
I'll go with yours.
Looks like low level spiral bands are developing. Interesting.
cool detail on wundermap but don't see anything there as weather yet except the red "L." InvestWundermap
You can see... it's trying to build TSTM on the southern end and/or wrap some TSTM around the center.
In all honesty I have to agree. Unless something rather unexpected happens I don't see why this won't make TS status upon reaching the antilles. It's become far more symetrical in the last few frames, with increasing and expanding convection. Almost look like banding features on the NW side. It just needs to work on that surface low and maintain the heavy convection for an extended period
well...
97L was reactivated. Its no longer 'ex'
oh, wait a sec., its a bug on my screen. Sorry...
Looking at the steering layers, it should continue to head westward into the Caribbean then northwestward in response to a trough advecting eastward over the CONUS. Could end up somewhere in the northern Caribbean.
lol
LOL
Viewing: 51 - 101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index