97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Appreciate that, TN.
Catch up with y'all later. I hope it dissipates, but it is certainly interesting to watch - guess that's why most of us are here.
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
AOI
AOI
AOI
We gots da Funktop Animated Loop too...baby.
Floater 1 - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Yup! Especially because some of the models keep hinting at a development. You never know..
ABNT20 KNHC 192350
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Adrian
ABNT20 KNHC 192350
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
I guess it a yellow circle for now
You need to read the TWO.
LOL
lol
As Nole said as well, the pattern down here in the Gulf States has been so weird this year. First it was over 100 for 5 days in a row which never happens until August...lack of sea breeze but maybe a handful of times this year, and now a solid front passing through and temps have been really low to the point when we had a solid land breeze a few days ago.
Havent change my thoughts and even if there is some convection tonight, still wont. This will never make TD status.
Very good point! I have never experienced a hotter June that I can remember. I know those gulf waters have got to be warm. And yea, then the sudden front. Strange weather is an understatment. Im waiting for snow next...lol.
Maybe its the dreaded "El Nino!!" (enter scary music)
GOM 60 Hour Surface Current Forecast Model,Loop current,area specific
How are you this fine sunday eve?
NOTE: I am NOT saying this for this specific moment only. im just talking about the during general diurnal phases. a lot of people have a reason to poof it right now because it might run into a block of shear and get shredded to bits, no one really knows yet, and this isn't directed at anyone specifically..
what's your feel on the convection in the GOM...
Does it ever pick up systems? j/k...
Looks like the RIP-ers have backed off some since the new TWO came out. I'm sure they'll be back tomorrow fired up with 30 minute frame-by-frame updates on 97L.
I haven't changed from this morning lol.
I wish it was in a better orbit
I say lets take a little break off of 97L and play name that blogger!!
You simply remember this blogs funniest things, or quotes that bloggers have written in the past.
Like does anyone rember last year when STORMW was accused of sending messages to a female blogger on here?
something about feet lol anyone remember?
no contest...JFV would win every catagory...
Im great, thanks. A bit tired from the day but im relaxing now so its all good.
No better Orbit for a Twice a day pass than a Polar Orbit.
Or am I missing something?
Ouikscats passes are determined by orbital Mechanics,..a known path is published every day on what will be collected on each ascending and descending node of the Polar Orbit.
A better way of saying it missed,is that the Storm missed the Quikscat pass..
to be er,..retentive.
i put you in the wrong category didnt i :P
edit: well actually you've been slowly lowering your expectations of the system as the system got closer to the shear/TUTT/trough, and the trough just sitting there not moving.
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
LOL!
RIP-ers? lmao I'm literally chuckling up a storm right now.
This page contains the most recent wind vector images covering the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, East Pacific and West Pacific Ocean. It is updated shortly after receipt of new QuikSCAT orbit data files.
QuikSCAT is a polar orbiting satellite with an 1800 km wide measurement swath on the earth's surface. Generally, this results in twice per day coverage over a given geographic region.
Click desired image for more features.
Awesome picture - thanks for posting.
Substantial thunderstorm activity will increase tonight, and this might help form a central dense overcast (CDO), which would support the formation of a sufficiently closed LLC. Nevertheless, wind shear should not adequately slacken in time for significant coalescence, because mean shear should approximately be 20kts, which is mostly unfavorable, but not so unfavorable to induce a Robespierre effect. Once it passes through the Lesser Antilles, then it will have to be watch for development, as the TUTT rapidly lifts and replaced with the STR, producing ventilation for tropical cyclogenesis.
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