97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You see it a few times in the winter. I'm in the panhandle of Florida. Just got a beneficial quarter inch of rain.
Who needs 97L?
For the record....
We are through 49 days of the tropical season.
We have 134 to go and.....it's over.
27% of the season is behind us.
tomorrow will be very interesting...
27% of the season is behind us.
Ike, please don't mock The Season™...It will last til January just to spite you...lol
at least the rotation is there
Of course we will, but now sure how much yet (maybe an inch or even less)
have to wait till morning...
LOL....
My prediction was no named storm through July. I still may be right.
A front in the GOM? A ULL instead of a Twave bringing moisture to S Florida?
Hmmmm.....
I am not a Met, but I have been watching a long time (20+ years) and that just looks unusual to me. Worth watching, IMHO.
It has been managing since it has been able to stay away from the SAL up north... as you mentioned it could be interesting if it's able to get ahead of the SAL and gain some latitude.
evening storm
feels like october where iam
why storm wouldn't the trought pick it up and move it out to see
There is always 6z tomorrow Ike quieter peaceful blog lol.
pop up convection begining to occur in 97l small areas at the moment
Ike, I live for the groundswell, but I'm not stupid either --I like knowing we're 27 percent through-- all it takes is one.
for example your namesake.
I'll be on here looking at 97L....
welll, yeaaa -- you're next door to the Klondike dude!!!
Junior was a beast.
Plenty of convection over Florida.....
Beginning July 20 and ending July 22
The easy answer to that is it is way to far out to tell where it may be, and what would happen.
Hypothetically...even if it were in the Bahamas, it is certainly to far out to tell where edge of the high pressure will be and therefore where it would go. Depends on strength of the system as well.
Wait and see as always...
shear continues to increase, doesnt look promising for 97L in the short term
If you are counting days, then I suppose that's true.
However, I once went back through historical accounts and found that in the South Carolina Lowcountry, the vast majority of storms hit somewhere between the last 2 weeks of August and the month of September. (I am sorry that I do not remember exactly, but I think it was about 80%).
Since June and July have historically had not much impact, I will be waiting until August 15 to start my count down
Hey there, SJ.
Look at the forecast I posted
look at the map you posted from CIMSS, you seem to only consider the maps that show favorable shear and are ignoring the maps that show unfavorable shear
Burned please I don't know how many times I have to say this but shear will decrease ahead of it.
I looked and I said the same thing as you until I saw the forecast for tomorrow.
I so enjoy seeing things like your quote above.. Thanx StormW
you seem to be denying it too, look at the shear map and then look at the visible, shear is not becoming move favorable in the short term
As I said if it can survive the shear in the Eastern Caribbean, I think we will see Ana with 97L in the Central Caribbean
That is the info he got. It shows favorable shear and unfavorable shear. What the heck are you talking about. Favorable and unfavorable shear isn't separated into 2 maps. You don't make any sense.
Weather was beautiful all week. Seas only 1-2 feet at most. I have never seen the gulf and Atlantic that calm ever. The seas were as calm as a small lake all the way through Florida straits, around the Bahamas & back into the gulf. The only rain and "slight" seas were on Saturday mid-gulf returning to Galveston.
SST's around bahamas were definitely 86-88 deg.F. The water temps felt like a warm backyard swimming pool.
That was a very good week out, but even the cruise crew were commenting about how abnormally calm the ocean was.
that map from WU has favorable shear in about 80% of the Atlantic about 95% of the time lol, I have found that it isnt very trustworthy
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