97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'm tired of being wrong so will not vote this time. (HNI) (Have No Idea:)
It is certainly taking advantage of the immediate low sheer and threading the needle...."lowriding" below the sheer to the North and SA to the South.
Its not gonna be 100% by any means, but if she takes the southern route like it looks she is, she should survive the killing shear to its north. Shes small and I think it will survive with some shear but not enough to destroy it
Lucky it's going in different directions!
Based on what?
Also if it was shear induced the convection would not be consildating and becoming circular as you see it would be blowing in a direction like what happen to wave in front of 97L.
Thats cause 97L is a gangsta! LOL.
actually shear has increased a bit in the southern caribbean, it will be very close
Emily
Felix
I saw it last night
Lol....Bigtime female-wannabe lowrider....
not at all really, conditions were near perfect for both Emily and Felix; also future tracks take this to the NW Caribbean and not mainly due west in time
roflmao! oh those Stormtop post from summer of 2005!
Well then I guess I should keep an eye on this and pay attention to the Met service
It is interesting, how the clouds to the s/ west and n/ east (generally) are begining to look like feeder bands.........
yeah i also was thinking that after patrap's image, after these past few seasons it seems to expect the unexpected...nothing suprises me anymore..lol
Hi Aqua,
thanks for the info...
does he still post in all caps??? lol
He said it was read on and you will see that he said it is moist now.
ROFL... It's always disco time :)
Hey neighbor. Yes, he does.
A few days ago most models were forecasting near perfect conditions in the Caribbean in 5-7 days and I bet it has to do with that anticyclone.
Link
Weather Brainiacs: Analyze similarities and differences between conditions for Felix and 97L. Discuss amongst yourselves...
Then submit three-paged report, double-spaced (no typos!) LOL.
I think that was one of the top three fastest CAT5's to form in the history of hurricane tracking. It also formed at the end of August, not mid-July. So please, do not think we've got another Felix on our hands, folks.
I captured this image of Felix Sunday, Sept. 2, 2007.
Some fun times ahead ? About time we had something to quarrel about !
heheheheh
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