97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOL any one home
Lol. I'm waiting until CIMSS
You have said that each of the last 3 nights too and well its still around
Sigh. :( Why don't they use all that intellect and power and money for peace. Add plausible deniability and whoever uses it can never be blamed. Sorry. Just caught my eye. Back to Mother Nature's weather. Is this shear the end of the little storm that could?
you tend to write things off before they are actually gone, seems you do it a lot as well
you no am this massing with evere one
LOL
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
You said that not to long ago..
Jeff Masters will be the first to convey that lil bit o wisdom.
Never discount a CV circ till its inland or dissipated.
Nighty.
Well said
Don't worry about it CCHS, you were asked by several of us to do this type of graphic last year, and we find it very helpful.
The information on this blog is the opinion of those who write it, and does not have to be only what nhc, etc say. That's why its a blog.
i think will see less then 5 too 7 name storms that is if we can get there
lool irony. anyway i dont think 97l will be athreat unless it somehow survives into the gulf. which it wont. this season is a bust. NEXT
It is only July 19th and El Nino is still not projected to be very strong
I think we will get closer to 10-12 named storms; in the heart of the season we can rattle off 4 or 5 storms in a short amount of time. Based on what we have seen mostly favorable conditions will exist in August.
you are a bust; POOF!! lol
Could you post a map. I'd like to see.
nevermind that isnt an anticylcone I dont think lol
lol
yea but it has maintained its structure nicely so far, I even think the circulation has become even more defined despite the shear.
yup
I think that black spot clearing out in the central Caribbean could be a developing anticyclone
The 850mb vorticity has increased
-facepalm- 2004.. 2004..2004..2004..2004..2004..El Nino..Cold Fronts.. pat, I need some 70's or 80's music that would be proper for this.
I did that last night too lol
see you all tomorrow, when many tropical weather lovers will run to their computers in the morning to see what has become of 97L, I compare it to a kid coming down the stairs on Christmas morning to see what presents are under the tree LOL
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
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