97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Some fun times ahead ? About time we had something to quarrel about !
heheheheh
funny thing Felix was in perfect condition but when it formed they said it would only be a cat one even with the extra predicted time over the west Caribbean. (Felix was originally supposed to track N of Nicaragua.
Hi pottery..
hi everyone..
got to leave for a while..bbl
East or West?
I see nothing else in the Atlantic other than 97L, if you mean the area in the Caribbean, that convection is shear induced
The current BAMS run does not look too out of wack (a wnw track) but this would place the storm right in the face of the westerlies and a ton of land interaction.
STORMMASTERG is not Lenny.
Some fun times ahead ? About time we had something to quarrel about !
heheheheh
lol...i hear ya...
Nice obs, beell. Thanks. Yes, I'm not too concerned about the trough, although if 97L gets a little more organized and gains a couple of degrees in latitude from the initial coriolis, I do think it will have some effect on steering eventually - maybe perhaps a bit further north. For now, I'm speculating that it will hold to the westerly steering pattern for the most part until it becomes better organized. Another thing, it's an upper level trough - that does little to effect what's happening at the sfc with 97L imo.
You are correct there. Also, the ITCZ is looking very dry again. Strange...
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
1217 UTC SUN JUL 19 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090719 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090719 1200 090720 0000 090720 1200 090721 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 50.2W 13.0N 54.0W 13.9N 58.2W 15.3N 62.2W
BAMD 12.4N 50.2W 12.5N 52.8W 12.7N 55.1W 13.1N 57.6W
BAMM 12.4N 50.2W 12.8N 53.1W 13.3N 56.2W 14.0N 59.2W
LBAR 12.4N 50.2W 12.6N 53.7W 12.9N 57.5W 13.6N 61.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 32KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090721 1200 090722 1200 090723 1200 090724 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 66.7W 19.8N 74.8W 22.9N 80.3W 25.4N 82.4W
BAMD 13.4N 60.5W 14.0N 67.8W 14.5N 76.1W 14.2N 84.8W
BAMM 14.9N 62.7W 17.1N 70.5W 19.3N 78.1W 20.8N 84.1W
LBAR 14.3N 65.3W 16.1N 72.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 42KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 50.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 42.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
This right off the coast of Africa.
East of 97L
He won't be able to hold back, once the first big one forms. Lol!
maybe something to watch in a few days, but nothing imminent
Ya I agree, but I am just saying from when I woke up to now it looks so much better.
Which color will the circle be on the 2pm TWO?
Votes
A Yellow.......................................7
B Orange....................................20
C Red..........................................7
D Circle will be removed.........0
Total votes................................34
Agreed, Drak.
B-Orange because of its relatively small size of the storm and could be sheared apart if it doesn't stay south of the ridge.
Poll is already over, sorry you missed it lol
ShortWave
Will be interested to hear what he has to say, too! What d'ya think, Pottery?
Will 97L crash into shear and just give the Cayman Islands golf courses a good drenching?
Thank you, that is the wave I was talking about.
Tom Watson at 59 years of age, is leading the British Open by 1 shot with 1 hole to play
Westwood has a long putt to tie for the lead on 18
Chicklit
He is on holiday, so nothing dare threaten Cayman!!
Go Watson! With Tiger out the Old Goat's got a chance.
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