97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That was a 59 yr-old choke job.
Hi IKE
Any rain up there? it's really hot over here
It not over he has a 4 hole playoff with Cink
LOL! I think some people just like RIPing storms...
Kman is in Vancouver going on a cruise although he said he may check in from time to time, Stormno is in San Salavdar for vacation.
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
AOI
AOI
AOI
Hey pottery,how are you?
yea it is.its been raining here since mid-morning.
Nope...no rain...83 and partly sunny.
LMAO that is awesome lol
I'm going with the overall satellite presentation to forecast a tropical depression in 48 hours from 5:27p.m. The troughs will not be as strong as normal due to local condition changes presently occuring in adjacent areas.
At least your not in the 90s like me lol.. I hate Florida.
many models. models arent always right but the fact is the shear is very high just to its north and just to its west. if it slows down it'll probably be ok, but at this speed there wont be enough time for shear to fall imo.
ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
WTH?
I have been watching the rain fall on you ! LOL
Wish it would fall here, I would be able to finish some chopping of trees. Right now, it is just too damm hot to go out there...
It's going to need to get that pinhole eye before they get it to orange.
What a shock.
Comebacks for the yellow circle Ike? lol :)
LMAO.....LMAO.....what does it take with these folks?
That is a yellow and that blob west of it that got killed was yellow?
I wave the white flag w/the NHC.
JUST because I disagree with you and say it wont develop I get bashed and called a drama maker. WTH? Aren't I allowed an opinion?
JRRP said it wouldn't develop
Taz did too.
But they don't get bashed? Why, is it because they're older and have been here longer?
I'm saying shear is just too high, as always with an El Nino year.
I know you guys want a storm but in my opinion this isn't it.
They did it for the lulz. Brennan and Blake aren't phased.
Yup, Ike, I felt that way with, what was it, 91L that made landfall near Mobile.
Apparently.
Chill out, you got so many responses because of how you posted. Go look at your post again and you will see why.
Think it was 90L...yeah, they were classic on that one...scheduling a 100 mile recon flight for 6 hours after it made landfall.....
Thank you.
I thought that 91L was a minimal tropical storm when it made landfall. NHC is too conservative this season.
convective tops warming
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