Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

thanks dr masters

All recent late start seasons are in August thanks Dr.Masters!!

Thanks Doctor Masters

Good works! Noticed that mother Earth has been very quiet the last two days no rocking and rolling(earthquakes) to speak of, tropics are kind of quiet as well. Makes you wonder when and where that shoe is going to fall.

We can only hope that perhaps it will be a no-start year! How nice would that be.

What concerns me the most about this late start is the sheer amount of energy that is sitting piled up in the oceans, waiting for something to tap it... especially in the GOM.

Quoting conchygirl:
We can only hope that perhaps it will be a no-start year! How nice would that be.

We're getting Ana, and the longer we wait the stronger Ana will be. I don't see how this will be a below average season, the El Nino is weaker than in 2006 and the conditions are more favorable. Plus, it only takes one.

Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.

This sound familiar OZ?

Thank you Dr Masters.I would like to see a analysis from you about the quiet tropics around the world.Looking foward to your August outlook.

I wouldn't mind a TS get give us a little rain. But I can do without another Ike (no offense, Ike).

1914 is best analog year for this year,nothing is going to happen.Even the models are not inventing storms.dust,temps,shear,lowest tropical cyclone energy in over 30 years equal dead blog and season.need to start researching next year after slow season.

Wow 1914 must have been strange and calm ... then again WW1 started so I guess nature took a back seat.

The last two late start seasons were well within the active cycle we are in where both years had 15 storms. Hmmmmmm!

It looks like I'll be way off on oss's poll we took awhile back with 16 storms. It would be nice to atleast have an invest to track.

Quoting help4u:
1914 is best analog year for this year,nothing is going to happen.Even the models are not inventing storms.dust,temps,shear,lowest tropical cyclone energy in over 30 years equal dead blog and season.need to start researching next year after slow season.

So your willing to say there will not be a storm all year? Wow!

Good thing there wasn't a blog in 1914. lol

Quoting help4u:
1914 is best analog year for this year,nothing is going to happen.Even the models are not inventing storms.dust,temps,shear,lowest tropical cyclone energy in over 30 years equal dead blog and season.need to start researching next year after slow season.

you would have said the exact same thing for 2004... or 2000.. or whatever late starting atlantic season that was quite active in the end. june and july are nothing compared to august and september, even october. you have a chance of being right, but a bigger chance of being wrong.

80% of the seasons Jeff featured where either deadly, active, or destructive.

BTW ignore help4u he is a childish troll, he was a wishcaster last year, now he's a downcaster.

Hurricaneswirl just posted a link thats a good reminder that there will be a season.

1941 turned out to be a pretty bad year! Some of my family went thru the Cat 3 that hit Miami that year and it was definitely BAD! Not as bad as the 1926 storm but definitely as bad as Betsy in 1965.

Conventional wisdom says that there will be some sort of outbreak of tropical activity in August/Sept/Oct. How could there not be? It's unheard of for nothing to happen during those months.

We all know about conventional wisdom, however. It is going to be VERY interesting to watch the rest of the season play out. It's interesting to note that some of the slowest seasons have been some of the worst in terms of landfalling hurricanes. What about 1992? That was the year of Andrew, which I believe formed on August 16th. I didn't see it included in that list but maybe I am missing something?

HJ

You have 4,2,11 for 1983. Is it supposed to be 4,2,1, or is it 11,4,2?

Maybe we are experiencing the calm before the STORMS.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
BTW ignore help4u he is a childish troll, he was a wishcaster last year, now he's a downcaster.

Sorta figured that by the statement

wishcasters are hear with the bad news of the dead season by those in the know.

Quoting mobilegirl81:
The last two late start seasons were well within the active cycle we are in where both years had 15 storms. Hmmmmmm!

Yes, also notice that in 4 of the last 5 late-start years, we ended up with >10 named storms.

Anyone notice that 1992 is missing from that list ??? Didn't the first storm form on August 16, 1992 and strike southern Florida on August 24. 1992. What was that storm ???? Name seems to slip my memory ... (j/k)

That looks like a hurricane season to me.

Quoting mobilegirl81:
Maybe we are experiencing the calm before the STORMS.

probably, the longer this energy is stored up in the tropics the more of an explosion its gonna make when it is released. just like earthquakes and volcanoes

also notice in the link i posted that the two major forcasts they show are 9-14 and 12. thats a lot compared to how much the UKMET is forcasting (6)

Quoting hurricanejunky:
1941 turned out to be a pretty bad year! Some of my family went thru the Cat 3 that hit Miami that year and it was definitely BAD! Not as bad as the 1926 storm but definitely as bad as Betsy in 1965.

Conventional wisdom says that there will be some sort of outbreak of tropical activity in August/Sept/Oct. How could there not be? It's unheard of for nothing to happen during those months.

We all know about conventional wisdom, however. It is going to be VERY interesting to watch the rest of the season play out. It's interesting to note that some of the slowest seasons have been some of the worst in terms of landfalling hurricanes. What about 1992? That was the year of Andrew, which I believe formed on August 16th. I didn't see it included in that list but maybe I am missing something?

HJ

I still remeber Betsy. That was the first hurricane I ever experienced.

does not matter how much energy is stored up if nothing is their to trigger it.

I worry about the population that is not as weather aware as we are on here. Lot of complacency building up out there.

Quoting marknmelb:
Anyone notice that 1992 is missing from that list ??? Didn't the first storm form on August 16, 1992 and strike southern Florida on August 24. 1992. What was that storm ???? Name seems to slip my memory ... (j/k)

There was an unnamed subtropical storm in April of 1992.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


probably, the longer this energy is stored up in the tropics the more of an explosion its gonna make when it is released. just like earthquakes and volcanoes

also notice in the link i posted that the two major forcasts they show are 9-14 and 12. thats a lot compared to how much the UKMET is forcasting (6)

I'm at work and that link is blocked for me :(

Quoting marknmelb:
Anyone notice that 1992 is missing from that list ??? Didn't the first storm form on August 16, 1992 and strike southern Florida on August 24. 1992. What was that storm ???? Name seems to slip my memory ... (j/k)

Yeah...I was wondering the same thing...Dr. Masters?? Anyone...Anyone...Bueller? Bueller?

HJ

AWESOME BLOG DR. MASTERS!!!!

I think that CSU will update theirs and go like 9 storms or something. NOAA is supposed to update theirs 8/6.

Maybe Something brewing in the ATL/Global Tropics...need to be awaken...maybe

El nino is weakening. significant summer cooling per TAO 5 day averaged 3.4 map

Did I miss something? Where is 1992? Hurricane Andrew?

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Heaven forbid if we were to actually end up surpassing the 1914 cane season, HEAVEN FORBID.

Huh? 1914 only had 1 storm. Why is that a big deal? Now if you were to say that about the 2005 season I'd understand your sentiment.

HJ

Ok unnamed in April. Got it.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Guys, is the big ridge still in store for August or not anymore?

Can someone please look into their Crystal Ball-ster for WS/JFV? I only have one of those eight ball things and they don't work well for weather.

El nino weakening? Uh oh.

desperation has hit the board.we can't wishcast hurricanes with nothing out there.So now we try to wishcast away el nino and the facts presented by the experts,like dr. masters.

Awesome update, I was thinking that I probably could just sit back and relax this season, but, maybe not...

Help4u sounds like a psychiatrist.

Off to work, you guys have fun and play nice.
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