Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index
I dont see anything on the 12Z CMC
WHXX01 KMIA 301845
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1845 UTC THU JUL 30 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE LANA (EP062009) 20090730 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090730 1800 090731 0600 090731 1800 090801 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 140.6W 12.9N 143.6W 13.6N 146.5W 14.3N 149.7W
BAMD 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 144.0W 13.7N 147.2W 14.9N 149.7W
BAMM 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 143.6W 13.6N 146.4W 14.4N 149.1W
LBAR 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 143.8W 13.2N 146.9W 13.6N 150.3W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 58KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090801 1800 090802 1800 090803 1800 090804 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 153.0W 15.9N 159.4W 17.1N 165.5W 18.0N 171.0W
BAMD 16.0N 151.7W 18.8N 154.8W 21.3N 157.2W 22.9N 158.5W
BAMM 15.2N 151.7W 16.9N 156.2W 18.6N 160.6W 20.3N 164.6W
LBAR 13.5N 153.5W 13.9N 158.5W 15.1N 162.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 59KTS 51KTS 36KTS 26KTS
DSHP 59KTS 51KTS 36KTS 26KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 140.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 137.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 134.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM
$$
NNNN
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
ISSUED BY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU JUL 30 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION WITH A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND COILING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AB...AS WELL AS THE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS...HAVE ALL INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LANA.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WARM OCEAN WATERS AND LOW SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS INDICATING A 50%
CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Thanks, Guys. Link
Link
LOL I don't blame you, it is insignificant. Look closely at western Cuba toward the end of the run.
Lets see...
1. VERY good suggestion
2. Good suggestion, especially if you have a propane generator
3. Everything can be cooked on a grill
4. Incredibly important there. ;)
5. Might want to add "Immodium A-D" to that list.
6. Its a hurricane. Not World War 3.
7. Good idea.
8. Might want to bump that up, just in case.
9. General suggestion is 1 gallon per person, per day. I stretch mine to 2 gallons per person, per day (to account for my 2 cats, and helping cleanup outside).
10. You can never have too many batteries.
The Rain Chain
Link
huh?
EP062009 - Tropical Storm LANA
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 1800 UTC
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR
Ok let me get my binoculars
you mean 'magnifying glass.'
btw, strong line of showers coming across Central Fla. again tonight. Last night was like the 4th of july redux.
MelbourneRadar
img
See everyone tommorow..........WW
yellow circle at 8pm? or no?
for what?
????
Question
What is mitosis?
caribbean wave? or is that just thunderstorms?
Wave
weakening flag on
Cell division. Storms sometimes split and reform center just before strengthening.
I get it now!! :D
Sometime, in the next 2 weeks we should get something to track. I'm just patiently waiting since I know we have August and September still to go.. Also my good friend, all is not lost, you and I are young and there will be many hurricane seasons in the future. 2009 is just one year, just like 2005 was only 1 year.
RED!?!?!?
for what?
Don't see much in the EATL on this run, so far.
LOL!
purple
or blue
WHO VOTES FOR RED????? ANY TAKERS?
yea blue as in the color of the ocean on the NHC map
AKA Nuttin lol
Look what it's heading for.....
geez calm down, he hasnt been on all day, there is nothing there
read back a few pages, StormW explains nicely what the situation is.
Viewing: 1251 - 1301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index