Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Odds are....yes. Don't take my word at it...just a blogger. Trust the experts.
What the hel@ are u talking about?
During the the last 2 weeks of July, the MJO moved into the CPAC.
During the last week of July it edge into the Eastern PAC, Central America and GOM/W Caribean Sea.
it should continue into east and enter the GOM Caribbean during the first week of August and then the tropical Atlantic by the 2nd week and over Africa by mid-August.
join us in storm chat
on barometer bob show
tonight guest blogger stormw
from wunderground will be on
for a live phone chat
click link for the show
Link
Like me of course. Bama, LSU, Auburn, Florida?
What is your choice? They should name hurricanes after colleges': here comes hurricane Nick! LOL
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
nuttin
Site is acting up, and yes, I've noticed the Carribean wave flare up.
WS, we need patrap to post an image of the lawnmower. nuthin
Ah yes, that was the leftover TS Edouard. Lets hope none of them get worse than that this year. :)
yea maybe but you be careful on what you say or wish a friend said (it would be cool if a hurricane came to cayman) and Ivan came then he said (it would be cool if a weak earthquake )and an earthquake came so just be careful!
Every once in a while when I refresh it tells me the blog has NO ENTRIES...lol! Something must be up...this blog with no entries in July/August...hmmm
So very true, I'm sick of hearing model consensus, what happened to good ole weather forcasting , don't exist much anymore , man have become to dependent on machine brains, garbage in , garbage out, sorry just had to vent, I know models can be used for guidance and are fairly accrate track wise other than that, many have become to dependent on them and regard them as gospel.
Lurker...I'll go Puple and Gold....Geaux Tigers!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 PM AST THU JUL 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EXIT THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTERWARD...A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PULSES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
A MODERATE AFRICAN DUST EPISODE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NEAR 36/37 WEST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
DISCUSSION AREA ON MONDAY.
OTHER THAN THOSE WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS.
It's not a pleasant experience by any means, its alot more than the thrill of seeing the winds and rain...Imagine no power for a week, no AC, no stores open, no gas...
That's the reality of it and it aint pretty. Check out some of the stories of the Katrina or Rita survivors (or any of the other majors) and ask them if its any fun...
Be glad you haven't been in one...
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