Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index
Nothing really...There was Hurricane Allen that Hit Texas...cat 3
My best guess is a relatively low number of storms ( say 9 or less ) but more intense on a percentage basis ( say 3 majors, cat 5, 4 and 3 )due to high TCHP resulting from a lack of systems to create upwelling and reduced Easterly trade wind speeds.
Late starting seasons usually bring one or two nasty surprises.
poof 'em all...
I tend to think it will be from a late Sept/Oct leftover frontal system in the Gulf that will form into something...
sheri
Hurricane Allen was the strongest hurricane of the 1980 Atlantic hurricane season. It was one of the strongest hurricanes in recorded history, one of the few hurricanes to reach Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale on three separate occasions, and spent more time as a Category 5 than any other Atlantic hurricane. Allen is the second of only two hurricanes in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), after Hurricane Camille in 1969.
In Texas, the storm surge was reported as high as 12 feet (3.7 m) at Port Mansfield, though it may have been higher because the highest surges occurred in unpopulated and unmonitored sections of the Texas coast. A peak wind gust of 129 mph (208 km/h) was also measured at Port Mansfield. The storm caused 7 deaths in Texas and 17 in Louisiana (most resulting from the crash of a helicopter evacuating workers from an offshore platform). Allen spawned several tornadoes in Texas. One tornado caused $100 million in damage when it hit Austin, Texas, making it the costliest tropical cyclone-spawned tornado in recorded history. Overall, however, the storm caused limited damage in the United States due to its suddenly diminished power and because its highest tides and winds hit a sparsely-populated portion of the Texas coast.[1]
Allen caused $2.6 billion (2005 USD) in damages and killed at least 271 people throughout its course (including indirect deaths).[1]
Caribbean islands
In Barbados, preliminary damages were estimated to be $1.5 million (1980 USD). About 500 houses were either damaged or destroyed, total damages was moderate. No deaths were reported. St. Lucia sustained catastrophic damage from a strong category 3 hurricane. Eighteen people lost their lives as a result of the storm's passage. Although the damages was minor, one death in Guadeloupe was attributed to Allen.
In Martinique, damages was somewhat extensive as the storm passed 50 miles south of the island. The capital had 76 knots maximal gust during Allen.[citation needed]. The hurricane also divided the Isla de Aves of Venezuela into two smaller islets.
In the central Caribbean, Cayman Brac was hit by winds in excess of 115 mph (185 km/h) which caused considerable property damage. Eight deaths in Jamaica were attributed to Allen. Damage was very significant along the northeast coast, where the hurricane made its closest approach to the island. Also, though there were no reports of significant property damage in Cuba, 3 deaths were attributed to Allen.[citation needed]
Extensive damage occurred in Haiti due to high winds and flash flooding. Total costs for that country were estimated to be at more than $400 million (1980 USD). Roughly 60% of the nation's coffee crop was destroyed. In all, 220 people were killed and 835'000 were left homeless. In Port-au-Prince, 41 deaths were caused by tin roofs flying off and around 1200 were made homeless by flooding [4].
One bit of good news resulted from Allen's arrival -- it dumped 10 to 20 inches (510 mm) of rain in south Texas, ending a summer-long drought during the Heat Wave of 1980. Its storm total rainfall map is shown to the right.[5]
Wikipedia
Here in Florida, the third week in August....
About when we will likely see the first system LOL
Bama you go girl from another Bama girl.
Sweet Home Alabama.
Sheri
Tell what? I was referring that the volcano had no effect on the hurricane season...it circled the globe above tropical longitudes during the 80 hurricane season.
They would stay up past their curfew, if the parent set one....luckily we have the ignore button...
Running outta room on my list
Dear JustWx, you're limerick's outstanding
And the No Thing is very demanding
But way south near the Glades
It's aces in spades
That I'm glad that my housse is upstanding.
Viewing: 1501 - 1551
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index