Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:01 GMT le 29 juillet 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF... shows nothing..............


Surprise Surprise
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
OZ,
Fiscal conservative? With all the money you spent on that Hurricane Suit?!? What are you talking about? J/K!



Man, don't you know that fiscal conservatives are really big on "defense spending!"

LOL! :)
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Many of us have been here since the start of the blogs. Many left the main blog because of the wishcasting and people like you Chicklit, no personel problem Code never says she knows all, she's still learning like most of us.
Sounds like your personel problem to me.

Code- You know the rule "Only read Dr.Master's and those that knows posts then leave.
No RUN!!!
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357. IKE
12Z ECMWF... shows nothing..............
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Quoting thermoclined:
spin south of the Bahamas??????

I was looking at that feature earlier, just not quite sure what to make of it.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Haha.. it's amazing how people come to a weather blog like this one and then complain about people talking about the weather. It's not like you have to come and read posts here.

Evidently, code1 knows a lot more than many of us on here and wants to give us all lessons on how to not only think but also to act (as adults, I presume). Sounds like a personal problem to me.
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OZ,
Fiscal conservative? With all the money you spent on that Hurricane Suit?!? What are you talking about? J/K!

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I have a question (that I'm way too lazy to research myself): Do late starting seasons also have a tendency to end late? In other words, is a season that starts in Mid-August more likely to have a November storm?

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Deep Analysis regarding the record low tropical cyclone activities, and the forecast for the future.


Click here------------------->>> Link
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Oh code, please drop the subject and lets get back to weather or the Space Program, which ever you prefer.
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350. code1
Goodness. You folks are over the top. Apparently most cannot read, nor comprehend either. REPEAT: PREDICTIONS OF NAMED STORMS AND DISCUSSIONS DOES NOT CONSTITUTE WISHCASTING!

Sheesh, y'all should have learned more in your English comprehension courses. Flame away you "whiners" (yes chicklet, am talking to you). Have already heard from enough folks in the past 5 minutes to know that my posts are shared by many here. Carry on with your nonsense of wishcasting only. Learning is a wonderful option, you may want to try it elsewhere as well.
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spin south of the Bahamas??????
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I'm a downcaster.

Perhaps it's because I'm a fiscal and social conservative.

And maybe it's because I just love a low scoring ballgame.

0,0,0 looks really sweet in my minds eye.
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it is beginning to appear that an area of disturbed weather is trying to form along 8N 38W. Looking at the RAMSDIS sat loop ,there seems to be a mid level circulation. looking at QS of the area it shows something of a partial surface low
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Quoting Chicklit:

Quitcher whining. We just cannot figure out why nothing's spinning up. And this is a tropical weather BLOG. People here like to watch and track tropical storms.


Haha.. it's amazing how people come to a weather blog like this one and then complain about people talking about the weather. It's not like you have to come and read posts here.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
I'm surprised no one is coming on here to say that the shot of the Shuttle pulling away from the Space Station is a computer animation, that the shots from inside the shuttle and station are coming from a studio, and the sonic booms you hear over S. FL are either created by the Blue Angels or are emminations from really really really big speakers.


Nah Oz, a lot of people on here are from Florida, we strongly take pride in the space program, plus its a main soruce of our economy right next to Disney. It provides many, many jobs from all across Florida.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
I'm surprised no one is coming on here to say that the shot of the Shuttle pulling away from the Space Station is a computer animation, that the shots from inside the shuttle and station are coming from a studio, and the sonic booms you hear over S. FL are either created by the Blue Angels or are emminations from really really really big speakers.
Very funny Oz....:)
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OZ, its a double boom not a single or the record is skipping :)

Link
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Quoting code1:
Thanks Dr. M. I find it sad to read so much wishcasting here for a storm. Of course, there are still a few level headed bloggers here. Kudos to you! Assumptions are like *******, we all have them. Mine on the ones wishcasting? Either very young, or have never been through a bad one themselves. Yes, they are exciting to track and watch, but the fear and devastation of reality when they do landfall far outweighs any juveniles or others wishing for them. My hope is this will be a year of record, NO STORMS on any coastline.

Quitcher whining. We just cannot figure out why nothing's spinning up. And this is a tropical weather BLOG. People here like to watch and track tropical storms. And oh yeah, the satellite photo above shows SAL, but it doesn't cover the entire Atlantic. We've all seen plenty of little lows move into the right conditions and develop. But nothing for 72 hours? That's 3 days. But then again, that's Jason's post so who knows if the NHC actually said that. If they didn't, please Admin., do something. Thanks.
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I'm surprised no one is coming on here to say that the shot of the Shuttle pulling away from the Space Station is a computer animation, that the shots from inside the shuttle and station are coming from a studio, and the sonic booms you hear over S. FL are either created by the Blue Angels or are emminations from really really really big speakers.
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Quoting code1:
Thanks Dr. M. I find it sad to read so much wishcasting here for a storm. Of course, there are still a few level headed bloggers here. Kudos to you! Assumptions are like *******, we all have them. Mine on the ones wishcasting? Either very young, or have never been through a bad one themselves. Yes, they are exciting to track and watch, but the fear and devastation of reality when they do landfall far outweighs any juveniles or others wishing for them. My hope is this will be a year of record, NO STORMS on any coastline.


if i was wishcasting i would say there is going to be 27 named tropical storms hit my area so I wouldn't have to water my garden and it would be nice and cool the rest of the summer and we wouldn't have a drought.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
WAKE UP TROPICS, PLEASE, WAKE UP ALREADY!!!!!!!


I bet if you lived where Katrina or Ike hit you wouldn't be saying that...DOH!
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I don't get why the models don't predict anything spinning up.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Personally I hope they wait one orbit, I want to hear 'em sonic booms loud in Tampa!
those booms are pretty awesome aren't they?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


what parts of Florida will get to hear the sonic boom?


We always hear it in SW Florida...N. Ft. Myers to be exact...
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Quoting conchygirl:
Mornings are typically pretty good here so lets hope she comes home as scheduled.


Personally I hope they wait one orbit, I want to hear 'em sonic booms loud in Tampa!
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Quoting Chicklit:
How does nothing come out of this in low shear and warm SSTs?

Link


It's an interesting question. Maybe the MJO pulse is too strong right now. Perhaps the SAL is too strong right now. Combination of two...or neither. Maybe solar activity (though SSTs are warming) has as a hand in all this.

Someone earlier asked "how can these questions be answered?"

It's a puzzle for sure and the longer this tropical drought continues, the more we'll wonder at it.
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Ahoy! Is that a spin I see between Cuba and the Bahamas? Tail end of front? ULL?
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Afternoon StormW! How did the show go? I didn't get a chance to listen...

HJ
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Now please, back to weather and or the Space Shuttle, every which way works.

Speeking of the Shuttle, anyone have any idea what we could expect at KSC for weather at around 10:45? I wouldn't expect the seabrease to have kicked in yet.
Mornings are typically pretty good here so lets hope she comes home as scheduled.
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Now please, back to weather and or the Space Shuttle, every which way works.

Speaking of the Shuttle, anyone have any idea what we could expect at KSC for weather at around 10:45? I wouldn't expect the seabrease to have kicked in yet.
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Quoting hahaguy:

I've been calling for 13 storms since may also I figured I'll go down with the ship lol


Your not alone haha :) From our >contest.

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How does nothing come out of this in low shear and warm SSTs?

Link
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Quoting code1:


Yet again, comprehend please! Predictions and watching does not constitute wishcasting. Hahaguy, you are hilarious. I won't ignore you either buddy!


You most likely have me on Ignore, but I am comprehending. I have not seen anyone here say 'OMG JEFF YOUR WRONG! 20 NAMED!' that would be wishcasting, not supporting anything with it. Calling wishcasters just starts drama like the one we're dising out now (yes, I admit im causing drama)
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324. code1
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Retired* sorry my spelling isn't all that good.
Dennis, Floyd in 1999
Isabel in 2003
Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne 2004
Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma 2005.
Actually thats 11, I keep on miscounting.
I move alot, and I was in Dennis, Rita, and Katrina all in Florida, twice visiting relatives, once was in the Keys (Rita)

Now, Im not attacking you or anything, but you shouldn't call wishcasters just because people disagree with the NHC or Jeff Masters.


One MORE time CT. Let me comprehend my posts for you. I call NO ONE a wishcaster for disagreeing with anyone. It's how everyone learns! Great questions provide great knowledge. My post dealt with wishcasters, meaning "come on, we need a cane", and "oh, I wish cane season would hurry and start", etc.
Make sense now? Hope so.
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Quoting AllStar17:


El Nino is NOT strengthening rapidly....in fact it seems as though it has peeked and may be weakening.

I usually lurk here but I thought this was a kinda cool site. you guys may already know of it but thought I'd share in case not... Thanks, Lorene
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html
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Quoting code1:


retird? What's that? If you've been through 8 (please spare the details though, we've seen your same stories for years), you know better. Just because you made a prediction doesn't make you a wishcaster. Please comprehend my post. If you are one wishcasting, then yes, I am speaking of you as well. I'm outta here Ike, Drak, SSI and others with sense here. I knew better. I need to continue to just read the good Dr.'s updates, and then scroll through the posts to find the ones I enjoy. Too many here to ignore.


Retired* sorry my spelling isn't all that good.
Dennis, Floyd in 1999
Isabel in 2003
Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne 2004
Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma 2005.
Actually thats 11, I keep on miscounting.
I move alot, and I was in Dennis, Rita, and Katrina all in Florida, twice visiting relatives, once was in the Keys (Rita)

Now, Im not attacking you or anything, but you shouldn't call wishcasters just because people disagree with the NHC or Jeff Masters.
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Mid level circulation near 8N 38W
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320. code1
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh give it a break, don't call wishcasters or downcasters unless its true. Right now, all we've been doing is looking at the data thats infront of us provided by links from the NHC and interperating it through our own Opinion and historical evidence, like analog seasons.

Some people have sat down such as Hurricane23, Ike, and some other really good bloggers on here and said they don't think it will be all that active. Some people sat down and said they think it will be average- to above average. Its all a matter of opinion, not wishcasting.


Yet again, comprehend please! Predictions and watching does not constitute wishcasting. Hahaguy, you are hilarious. I won't ignore you either buddy!
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Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I guess im a wishcaster, been saying 13 named and that the El Nino wont kill the season. But you know, I've been through 8 Hurricanes that were almost all really famous and retird, I wouldn't want to wish it on anyone.

I've been calling for 13 storms since may also I figured I'll go down with the ship lol
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Quoting vince1966:
Great, that report will give all the wishcasters something to drool on, There is no indication that we will be facing a repeat of the 2000 and 2004 seasons. All hype and speculation, no science, That seem to be the norm.


Oh give it a break, don't call wishcasters or downcasters unless its true. Right now, all we've been doing is looking at the data thats infront of us provided by links from the NHC and interperating it through our own Opinion and historical evidence, like analog seasons.

Some people have sat down such as Hurricane23, Ike, and some other really good bloggers on here and said they don't think it will be all that active. Some people sat down and said they think it will be average- to above average. Its all a matter of opinion, not wishcasting.
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316. code1
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I guess im a wishcaster, been saying 13 named and that the El Nino wont kill the season. But you know, I've been through 8 Hurricanes that were almost all really famous and retird, I wouldn't want to wish it on anyone.


retird? What's that? If you've been through 8 (please spare the details though, we've seen your same stories for years), you know better. Just because you made a prediction doesn't make you a wishcaster. Please comprehend my post. If you are one wishcasting, then yes, I am speaking of you as well. I'm outta here Ike, Drak, SSI, KOG, etc., with sense here. I knew better. I need to continue to just read the good Dr.'s updates, and then scroll through the posts to find the ones I enjoy. Too many here to ignore.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
WAKE UP TROPICS, PLEASE, WAKE UP ALREADY!!!!!!!

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzz
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52147
Thanks, LowerCal for that link.


The Way Home
Backdropped by a blue and white Earth, this image taken by the Expedition 20 crew shows Endeavour shortly after the shuttle and station began their post-undocking separation on July 28, 2009.
Image Credit: NASA
Link
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After reading this blog yesterday afternoon, as I drove home even my thoughts came in that repetative beat.. you know that distinctive beat pattern of all true limericks. I had to turn on Michael Savage to get it out of my head!
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Great, that report will give all the wishcasters something to drool on, There is no indication that we will be facing a repeat of the 2000 and 2004 seasons. All hype and speculation, no science, That seem to be the norm.
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Quoting code1:
Thanks Dr. M. I find it sad to read so much wishcasting here for a storm. Of course, there are still a few level headed bloggers here. Kudos to you! Assumptions are like *******, we all have them. Mine on the ones wishcasting? Either very young, or have never been through a bad one themselves. Yes, they are exciting to track and watch, but the fear and devastation of reality when they do landfall far outweighs any juveniles or others wishing for them. My hope is this will be a year of record, NO STORMS on any coastline.


I guess im a wishcaster, been saying 13 named and that the El Nino wont kill the season. But you know, I've been through 8 Hurricanes that were almost all really famous and retird, I wouldn't want to wish it on anyone.
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If the Shuttle comes in first opportunity, Orlando will still hear it, Tampa wont.
Comes in second opportunity, both Tampa and Orlando will hear it and it will be LOUD in Tampa. Especially after hearing STS-119 and STS-123 land.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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