Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:01 GMT le 29 juillet 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Ok and this is because people were getting annoyed with poems being posted every 5 seconds?? I dont see the connection really lol


Every 5 seconds is an exaggeration.

{/me wonders, this is maybe not a bad idea...should I move from poetic weather posts to weather exaggeration posts now? hmmmmmm....}

:D
Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887
Anyone have a link to ACE by month for prior seasons (graphic or tabular)? I see some saying the season is ##% over by date, or ##% over by average monthly activity, but I was wondering about where this date falls in averages of ACE.
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Stormchaser its called--------------- wait a minute----------------------------------------------------- changing your mind. something im sure a robot like u have never done.
Men these blog poems need to stop...
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
"Don't take life to seriously, you will never get out alive" --Van Wilder...

I think some people could learn a lot from that quote..


Ok and this is because people were getting annoyed with poems being posted every 5 seconds?? I dont see the connection really lol
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205. IKE
12Z NOGAPS through August 6th....

Looks like troughs in the east may return some next week.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
"Don't take life to seriously, you will never get out alive" --Van Wilder...

I think some people could learn a lot from that quote..
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.
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I didnt know we couldnt change our mind?? hmm
201. IKE
12Z GFS.... continues it's pattern of killing everything off by 40W. I'm assuming the waves are getting SAL'd. Looks free and clear through August 14th.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Nor is it a political blog, nor anything else that doesn't pertain to weather but somehow we usually get on those subjects.

Guys/gals, don't get so uptight... We need something to break of the monotany, unless you like looking at a calm see and dust...
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SAL will continue to suppress development
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Quoting bluehaze27:
He did say first NAMED storm and Andrew was in mid August.

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,11
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1



Even though it wasnt named 1992 isnt on this list due to a subtropical storm that formed in April along with Two depressions that formed before August

The list includes seasons that had the very first storm of the season.

Either that or he just forgot 1992 lol
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wait werent you the person saying it was gonna develop by this weekend?


LOL!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wait were you the person saying it was gonna develop by this weekend?


yes he was lol
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Im also going off how crappy it looks!!


Wait werent you the person saying it was gonna develop by this weekend?
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Has anyone seen Weather456,

His blog is now a featured blog on Weatherundeground.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/index.html?range=updated
He did say first NAMED storm and Andrew was in mid August.

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,11
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

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SAL map



Wind shear map



Take a look
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Burned, agree to disagree, i guess will have to wait and see.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Hows is this wave any different than the 50 or so that have died. Same conditions right now,but that will change.


No conditions are not the same

First, there is a large anticyclone over the area so shear is very favorable for development. Second this wave is in an area where SAL is minimial.
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Hows is this wave any different than the 50 or so that have died. Same conditions right now,but that will change.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Another wave bites the dust death


The wave that just came off the African Coast is not dead. You need to give it a day for the Boundary Layer to adjust to the oceanic environment.
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Im also going off how crappy it looks!!
What I fear is the August 1992 scenario playing out.

On August 24, 1992...the hurricane score changed practically overnight from 0,0,0 to 1,1,1 with U.S. landfall.
Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887
Quoting CycloneOz:
I can practically guarantee, that if the needle slips off of 0,0,0...you won't see a trace of a rhyming scheme anywhere on this blog.

We're bored. Fire us! :)


F
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As long as the poetry sticks to the tropical weather theme I'm all over it.

Until a storm develops that is...
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Another wave bites the dust death


um which wave would that be?

you have to remember that the wave is still alive as long as the axis is still there, so no the wave did not bite the dust. The one that is south of the CV Islands does not have much dust to deal with.
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I can practically guarantee, that if the needle slips off of 0,0,0...you won't see a trace of a rhyming scheme anywhere on this blog.

We're bored. Fire us! :)
Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887
We still have just over 4 months of the Season to go - yes, it is quiet right now - being a cynic I say "ominously quiet.
The "official" forecasts for numbers of Storms etc, in many ways, IMHO, are meaningless statistics because all it takes is to get hit by one "big one" and then it very quickly becomes a terrible season - even if that "big one" was the only storm in the year - perhaps, this is the paramount difference between clinical, analytical Forecasting and realistically being a "potential target".
Please do not write off a Season because of a slow start and please do not assume that come the end of Oct each year (as some posters allude to), the Season is over - many of us, from bitter recent experiences, will beg to differ.
Meanwhile, thank heavens for the exisiting calm and for those posters who state prevailing facts.
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Another wave bites the dust death
Interesting whorl out there round Ber-ma-du.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Drak is right, this is not a poem blog.


You don't get a vote.
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Drak is right, this is not a poem blog.
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176. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
every 100 mm is 4 inches so just about 32 inches


Wow.

I had a hot and dry June, but since July started it's been around 90 for daytime highs and almost daily rains.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sheesh lighten up fellas....

They have been tropical weather related.
Furthermore nobody is twisting your arms to read 'em. So just ignore 'em if ya don't wanna read them.


Its hard to ignore them when they starting taking up over half the blog posts on the page though. I do enjoy the poems actually, just dont do them so much
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Quoting Drakoen:


50


You crack me up! LOL
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:)
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Poems, yes they can be annoying
Blog's rhythm that we be destroying
You can grunt and bemoan
And vomit and groan
Yet there are those, now they be enjoying!


50
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Quoting stormsurge39:
There are poetry blogs------- go find them!!


Ah...but are there hybrid poetry / tropical weather blogs?

I can't find one. :(
Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887
Sheesh lighten up fellas....

They have been tropical weather related.
Furthermore nobody is twisting your arms to read 'em. So just ignore 'em if ya don't wanna read them.
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run the loop nhc central atlantic visiable get a great look of the suns glare off the oceans surface. hope and lyons said that is a sign of a calm surface.
I take it back i love your poems!!! LOL
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Feelin' like I just got voted off the island.


Nope! You are doing just fine!
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Poems, yes they can be annoying
Blog's rhythm that we be destroying
You can grunt and bemoan
And vomit and groan
Yet there are those, now they be enjoying!
Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I would find them more entertaining if there was one posted every minute lol

They were funny at first, but too much of anything is not a good thing

I dunno, seems like they just keep raising the bar and they are getting better all the time.
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Looking a bit deeper in the 2009, 1914 solar comparisons:

SUN SPOTLESS DAYS BY YEAR

2006 -70
2007 165
2008 265
2009 162 (year to date)

1911 200
1912 255
1913 310
1914 155

Some of these data are eyeballed off a chart so may have some inaccuracies. Current solar minimum is well below the Cycle 15 day count but still growing.
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Feelin' like I just got voted off the island.
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Quoting IKE:


How much is that in inches?
every 100 mm is 4 inches so just about 32 inches
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There are poetry blogs------- go find them!!
Quoting Dodabear:


That depends on where you are sitting. From here, I find them very entertaining.


I would find them more entertaining if there wasn't one posted every minute lol

They were funny at first, but too much of anything is not a good thing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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