Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Korithe Man - where's your sense of humor? He was obviously just joking..

Quoting tennisgirl08:


If you look at Storm Ws blog - he hints that some of the tropical waves off the African coast may have a shot. The SAL is moistening up a bit. The ridge will move any waves/storms westward, however, they will recurve before hitting the east coast. The models have been trending towards recurvature lately. Hence fish! However, this will probably not be the case in September.

If something were to form by Aug 2nd wouldn't the ridge make it more likely to be an east coast hit? 10 - 14 days out I can see your point. JMO

Does anybody know what the % is for storms to go into the gulf compared to the east coast this year?

Quoting Elena85Vet:


If something were to form by Aug 2nd wouldn't the ridge make it more likely to be an east coast hit? 10 - 14 days out I can see your point. JMO

The beginnings of a storm by Aug. 2nd would mean it would be a slow mover and development would be very slow to occur. It may take a very close track to the East coast. However, don't forget the strong trofs that have been moving eastward across the U.S. this season. Any slight movement by the ridge could dramatically change a hurricane's track. And, an incoming trof would help push the storm out to sea. I truly believe that if there is an East coast landfall, it will happen in September.

Furthermore, I quote Storm W to support my belief that we will see the beginnings of a depression or a storm by Aug. 2nd:

"The second wave near 32W stands out nicely on visible and RGB satellite imagery. The wave seems to be high amplitude, and a distinct inverted "V" signature is noted in satellite imagery. The most recent Quikscat pass indicates this may have a small, broad low level circulation associated with it. This feature however is surrounded by African dust, although does not appear to have entrained any of the dust thus far. There is at the moment a lack of any significant convection with this wave. I am not expecting development from this, at least in the short term, however upper level winds are forecast to be mostly conducive for tropical development through the next 96 hours. I will continue to monitor this wave as it moves westward for any significant changes. Development of this, or any wave for that matter, would be a slow occurance, given the downward moition phase of the MJO over the Atlantic Basin.

One area that does catch my attention a little more this morning is the area of convection that has moved off the African coast during the last 12 hours. Close up satellite loop imagery from EUMETSAT indicates the area of convection located near 10.5N;20W has become somewhat organized during the past 2 hours. Utilizing various satellite channels from EUMETSAT, cyclonic rotation is noted with this area. Satellite imagery would also seem to indicate that convection has increased during the last 2 hours. This area will be interesting to watch to see if convection can stay with thias area during the next 24 hours. Again, as mentioned previously, the upper level winds are forecast to be mostly conducive for tropical development over the next 96 hours. I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes during this time."

storm surge - about equal chances

Quoting tennisgirl08:
Korithe Man - where's your sense of humor? He was obviously just joking..

I thought that might be the case, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt. It's difficult, after all, to differentiate between satire and seriousness on the internet.

Nice shot of that convection over West Africa (75,000 ft anvil cloud) taken from International Space Station.

from: Link (larger image there)

Quoting KoritheMan:


I thought that might be the case, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt. It's difficult, after all, to differentiate between satire and seriousness on the internet.

And we do sure have a lot of satire on this blog!! That is for sure!!

Quoting stormsurge39:
Does anybody know what the % is for storms to go into the gulf compared to the east coast this year?

Depends where the storm forms. The east coast is hot for a strike now due to a ridge. In the next couple of weeks there will be a trough which makes a storm a fish or a west gulf coast hit. JMO

Quoting tennisgirl08:


And we do sure have a lot of satire on this blog!! That is for sure!!

True that.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Nice shot of that convection over West Africa (75,000 ft anvil cloud) taken from International Space Station.

from: Link

That's a beauty. Thanks for the pic.

Tennis girl how much of a % would u put on the wave over Afica becoming a TD by aug.2. Also you said it could turn out to sea. I keep reading about the bermuda high steering systems west. Are you talking about way before it gets there? I obviously dont understand.

Quoting stormsurge39:
Tennis girl how much of a % would u put on the wave over Afica becoming a TD by aug.2. Also you said it could turn out to sea. I keep reading about the bermuda high steering systems west. Are you talking about way before it gets there? I obviously dont understand.

Read what she said again. She did not say that tropical cyclogenesis would occur on August 2, rather, that the beginnings of it could, meaning that it could start showing signs of organization then.

Thanks Korithe but i did not say WOULD either!Im sure tennisgirl understands what im asking!

ok i did use the word would, but you took it out of context and made it sound like something else.

Quoting stormsurge39:
Tennis girl how much of a % would u put on the wave over Afica becoming a TD by aug.2. Also you said it could turn out to sea. I keep reading about the bermuda high steering systems west. Are you talking about way before it gets there? I obviously dont understand.

30-50% that the wave at 35W will start showing signs of organization as it moves westward. If not this wave, then maybe the monster wave over Africa right now will emerge and go straight to TD status - depending on the conditions once it gets there.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Read what she said again. She did not say that tropical cyclogenesis would occur on August 2, rather, that the beginnings of it could, meaning that it could start showing signs of organization then.

She was pretty clear.

"We may see the beginnings of a storm/depression by Aug. 2nd or maybe even a named storm. More likely - the beginnings of one."

Thank you tennis girl

Storm Surge - sorry forgot to answer your question about the ridge. If the wave at 35W forms, it will make it very close to the East coast. But will recurve before then. This could be due to two possible factors:

1)strong trough moving off the east coast
2) slight shift in ridge

If the monster wave over Africa right now emerges and forms a TD, it will start moving more northerly/NW and will eventually recurve. More organized storms tend to do that earlier on. Now, if it was September - I would be very concerned about a possible landfall.

LOL Some of you are a trip! READ 1662 again you SHOULD see that % means maybe and WOULD means what WOULD she say? unbelievable LOL

Thanks again tennis girl

Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks again tennis girl

your welcome! These are just my opinions. But I do think we will see some action soon!!

Night all.

Central Pacific National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE LANA (EP062009)
9:00 AM UTC July 31 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Lana (997 hPa) located at 13.3N 144.6W or 715 NM east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 17 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
75 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.6N 147.0W - 60 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 14.1N 149.8W - 65 knots (SSHS-1 Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.1N 155.5W - 60 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.0N 161.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)

TGIF cyberspace...the end of July, 2009.

Looking at the computer models....

00Z CMC shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 6th.

00Z NOGAPS shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 7th.

00Z ECMWF shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 10th.

00Z GFS shows no storms in the Atlantic through August 16th.

Morning Ike.Quite a light show over here this morning. Had to get out ofbed, make coffee, and watch awhile.....lol

Beautiful morning in Barbados, few clouds, sunny.

Going outside to get some fresh air and drink my coffee.

Have a good day, peoples.

Good Morning

The less hopeful and least impatient persons will rebroadcast aspects about August and the hurricane season today. I'm not a big fan of re-runs so with that in mind, have a great day all. No tropical update today, but you can go to my archives to read up on past topics.

G'morning all.

Ike, do you/we realize how utterly amazing post 1675 is??

Good morning all...had quite the storm at about 230am, about 3 hours ago. Say one report of winds over 40. Def woke me up.

Quoting aquak9:
G'morning all.

Ike, do you/we realize how utterly amazing post 1675 is??

Yes. There's nothing out there.

Great news.

And good morning to everyone.

Just looking at the date of the post, Ike, remembering Seasons%u2122 past...no feelings of regret for the lack of activity.

Wish we could wrap that post up, and give it to ourselves again in another month. And a month after that, too.

Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

Quoting aquak9:
Just looking at the date of the post, Ike, remembering Seasons%u2122 past...no feelings of regret for the lack of activity.

Wish we could wrap that post up, and give it to ourselves again in another month. And a month after that, too.

I picked 10-4-2 as season totals. I see no way we reach ten storms. This is the complete opposite, so far, of 2005.

You can catch StormW's interview on Barometer Bob's show on Bob's podcasts. Listening to it now.

http://barometerbobshow.com/podcast/index.php

'morning all! :)

I'm putting the final kibash on the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector and Alley animations so that they can be released tonight.

I stayed away from watching the animation play out for as long as I could, but this morning...I gave in and watched the entire month (sans today) play out.

I'm renaming the ITCZ to the AWDZ after what I saw on the Alley animation.

AWDZ stands for African Wave Destruction Zone.

Every single system that came off of the continent was detonated into oblivion. It was one of the most interesting things I've seen in awhile.

I'm sure you'll find great interest too in the long loops.

The animations should be loaded up on YouTube and processed somewhere between 11 PM and midnight EDT.

See ya'll again, then! :)

Wow Ike, I thought they were all on last night and would have gotten back on their meds by now. I guess we will have to put up with them today as well

Barometer Bob said to look out for the MJO. He said that the MJO's timing is bad. It comes around next week in the GOM and covers the entire Atlantic through September. He said by September 30 we could have 8 named storms, and thats a storm every week. He also said the season is not a dud becuz its not November 30. Many of us have been saying this over and over but I guess seeing is believing for some folks here. I dont think many grasp the danger of 2009 that those 8 storms have an incredible amount of ocean heat content to go with. Have your hurricane plan ready and do not become complacent.

Good morning
The tropics are very quiet this morning, and the models according to them are not showing anything developing, the next few days. i tend to disagree.what i have notice is that the MDR is getting more conducive for cyclogenesis, with low shear, weakening of the SAL and MSLP seems to be dropping. the easterlies are not as strong and the dry air is beggining to be eliminated. That being said i am looking at what appears to be a mid to low level circulation enveloped in a large area of moisture near 11N 34W. Both vis and wv sat pics are showing this feature. there is a anticyclone to the north east of this plume of convection. i will have to wait a little longer for more vis loops to make a definitive assesment of this area

Quoting Weather456:
Barometer Bob said to look out for the MJO. He said that the MJO's timing is bad. It comes around next week in the GOM and covers the entire Atlantic through September. He said by September 30 we could have 8 named storms, and thats a storm every week. He also said the season is not a dud becuz its not November 30. Many of us have been saying this over and over but I guess seeing is believing for some folks here. I dont think many grasp the danger of 2009 that those 8 storms have an incredible amount of ocean heat content to go with. Have your hurricane plan ready and do not become complacent.

The ATT homepage has one of their lead stories saying the same thing. Good post

Look, 2006, no one here this morning said the entire Season™ would be quiet. All hell could break loose in a few weeks; we don't know.

But it's comforting to wake up, and there's nothing out there. NOTHING. That nothing may last a week, or six weeks. Who knows, but I for one am thankful, very thankful for that small blessing.

Go Endeavour STS-127! Landing today! Payload Bay doors are closed.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Morning all!

'mornin' WUB's -

The 1992 hurricane season had seen few storms until late August - when a rather weak tropical depression moved westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic on August 17th. The depression reached tropical storm strength late of August 17th - becoming Tropical Storm Andrew with 55-mph winds. As Andrew continued moving west - the storm was confronted with strong wind shear in the upper levels. By late on the 20th, Andrew appeared to be weakening, the winds had fallen to 45 mph, and it looked as if the storm would dissipate. For the few residents in south Florida who had even noticed Andrew on the evening news, a small weakening tropical storm, heading toward the open Atlantic - was not worth a second glance.