Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Landing at 10:47 AM EDT.
little less than 3 hours from now.
60% chance of rain tomorrow.
60% chance of rain Sunday.
80% chance of rain today.
60% chance of rain tomorrow.
60% chance of rain Sunday.
lovely weekend for the gulfcoast....
Very little rain the last 2 days....perfect timing:(
yes 456 the heart of the season is yet to begin here is what i see for us then
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2009
AUGUST OUTLOOK
6/9 STORMS
5/7 HURRICANES
3 MAJORS or more
Hey CyberTed,
How 'bout givin' us a link for that.
Pretty much what I'm guessing:
8/4/2
Predictions based on historical graphs:
Link
Yep, I missed that. Went right over my head. Sometimes I'm not the brightest bulb in the socket. Thanks Ike.
lol
Ditto that. I just listened earlier this morning. Nice job on-air.
Picture of kids playing on beach and/or surfers in water. Text "It's great to live near the beach . . ."
Video clip of warning flags, tree in background, tree falls, text "BUT . . ."
Picture of devastation, destroyed house, text "What part of MANDATORY EVACUATION do you not understand?"
Just an idea from an occasional lurker.
I'm not either. I had to read it twice.
You did a good job. That's both you and Dr. M(on WWL), I've heard on-air. You both did a good job. Made it understandable.
Storm, good morning.... great listening to you last night on Barometer Bob
Good Morning StormW...GREAT interview!!! Loved listening to it..:)
I'll guess...conditions should become more favorable by mid-Aug.
That has to make you feel good.
whats see whats aug has for us
will it be the same ???
whats find out
WOW! I know you are very happy about that SormW! You really do a great job and I respect your forcasts!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
doc should be posting new blog soon i reckon interested to see he's take on things
IKE 12:46 PM GMT on July 31, 2009
I'll guess...conditions should become more favorable by mid-Aug.
as long as its after jfv's birthday j/k
lol
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's Bureau of Meteorology on Friday predicted that an El Nino weather system in the Pacific Ocean would be established by September-November at the latest.
The bureau said there was now agreement between international weather models that an El Nino, which can bring drought conditions to Australia and weaken Asian monsoons, would be established by the southern hemisphere spring.
"The same six models...predict established El Nino conditions (across a range of climate indices) by the southern spring at the latest," said the bureau in its latest ENSO report.
"Given the high level of persistence (and hence predictability) in ENSO during the second half of the year, the probability of an El Nino event continuing to develop and maturing late in 2009 is high," it said.
El Nino, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, and creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region.
For the latest report, see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
I'm just listening to the podcast because I couldn't listen to it live. The time difference makes it impossible :(
It should be nice to have been vindicated.
Thanks Storm.
Hello taistelutipu. I am listening now also.
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