Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:01 GMT le 29 juillet 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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60. IKE
Quoting NRAamy:
mornin' IKE....


Morning........
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
mornin' IKE....
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thank you,all treatment for the board is free of charge.vbg{obama healthcare}
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Hurricane556, that might be a slow beginning for things to start pickin up in the atlantic basin. Good info.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Guys, is the big ridge still in store for August or not anymore?


ECMWF says no and GFS says yes

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55. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We're getting Ana, and the longer we wait the stronger Ana will be. I don't see how this will be a below average season, the El Nino is weaker than in 2006 and the conditions are more favorable. Plus, it only takes one.


I don't see how this season would be average or greater.

It's not happening. I'll stick with my figure of 10-4-2, but I would go with between 8-9 as the total now, and that may be generous.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
This is a good link on the slow start:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6542878.html
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Help4u sounds like a psychiatrist.
Sounds like one or needs one?
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Per today's TAO 5 day averaged 3.4 map, there was SIGNIFICANT cooling within eastern 3.4 vs. yesterday. Over just the last four days of maps, there has been MAJOR cooling there with some areas cooling over 0.5C!

Quoting help4u:
desperation has hit the board.we can't wishcast hurricanes with nothing out there.So now we try to wishcast away el nino and the facts presented by the experts,like dr. masters.


Why don't you go take a look for yourself.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/u850a_c.gif

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif& P2=900&P3=456&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif_startup.csh
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Off to work, you guys have fun and play nice.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
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Help4u sounds like a psychiatrist.
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Awesome update, I was thinking that I probably could just sit back and relax this season, but, maybe not...
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desperation has hit the board.we can't wishcast hurricanes with nothing out there.So now we try to wishcast away el nino and the facts presented by the experts,like dr. masters.
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El nino weakening? Uh oh.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Guys, is the big ridge still in store for August or not anymore?


Can someone please look into their Crystal Ball-ster for WS/JFV? I only have one of those eight ball things and they don't work well for weather.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Heaven forbid if we were to actually end up surpassing the 1914 cane season, HEAVEN FORBID.


Huh? 1914 only had 1 storm. Why is that a big deal? Now if you were to say that about the 2005 season I'd understand your sentiment.

HJ
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El nino is weakening. significant summer cooling per TAO 5 day averaged 3.4 map
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AWESOME BLOG DR. MASTERS!!!!

I think that CSU will update theirs and go like 9 storms or something. NOAA is supposed to update theirs 8/6.

Maybe Something brewing in the ATL/Global Tropics...need to be awaken...maybe
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Quoting marknmelb:
Anyone notice that 1992 is missing from that list ??? Didn't the first storm form on August 16, 1992 and strike southern Florida on August 24. 1992. What was that storm ???? Name seems to slip my memory ... (j/k)


Yeah...I was wondering the same thing...Dr. Masters?? Anyone...Anyone...Bueller? Bueller?

HJ
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


probably, the longer this energy is stored up in the tropics the more of an explosion its gonna make when it is released. just like earthquakes and volcanoes

also notice in the link i posted that the two major forcasts they show are 9-14 and 12. thats a lot compared to how much the UKMET is forcasting (6)


I'm at work and that link is blocked for me :(
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Quoting marknmelb:
Anyone notice that 1992 is missing from that list ??? Didn't the first storm form on August 16, 1992 and strike southern Florida on August 24. 1992. What was that storm ???? Name seems to slip my memory ... (j/k)


There was an unnamed subtropical storm in April of 1992.
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I worry about the population that is not as weather aware as we are on here. Lot of complacency building up out there.
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does not matter how much energy is stored up if nothing is their to trigger it.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
1941 turned out to be a pretty bad year! Some of my family went thru the Cat 3 that hit Miami that year and it was definitely BAD! Not as bad as the 1926 storm but definitely as bad as Betsy in 1965.

Conventional wisdom says that there will be some sort of outbreak of tropical activity in August/Sept/Oct. How could there not be? It's unheard of for nothing to happen during those months.

We all know about conventional wisdom, however. It is going to be VERY interesting to watch the rest of the season play out. It's interesting to note that some of the slowest seasons have been some of the worst in terms of landfalling hurricanes. What about 1992? That was the year of Andrew, which I believe formed on August 16th. I didn't see it included in that list but maybe I am missing something?

HJ
I still remeber Betsy. That was the first hurricane I ever experienced.
Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Maybe we are experiencing the calm before the STORMS.


probably, the longer this energy is stored up in the tropics the more of an explosion its gonna make when it is released. just like earthquakes and volcanoes

also notice in the link i posted that the two major forcasts they show are 9-14 and 12. thats a lot compared to how much the UKMET is forcasting (6)
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That looks like a hurricane season to me.
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Anyone notice that 1992 is missing from that list ??? Didn't the first storm form on August 16, 1992 and strike southern Florida on August 24. 1992. What was that storm ???? Name seems to slip my memory ... (j/k)
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
The last two late start seasons were well within the active cycle we are in where both years had 15 storms. Hmmmmmm!


Yes, also notice that in 4 of the last 5 late-start years, we ended up with >10 named storms.
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wishcasters are hear with the bad news of the dead season by those in the know.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
BTW ignore help4u he is a childish troll, he was a wishcaster last year, now he's a downcaster.
Sorta figured that by the statement
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Maybe we are experiencing the calm before the STORMS.
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You have 4,2,11 for 1983. Is it supposed to be 4,2,1, or is it 11,4,2?
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1941 turned out to be a pretty bad year! Some of my family went thru the Cat 3 that hit Miami that year and it was definitely BAD! Not as bad as the 1926 storm but definitely as bad as Betsy in 1965.

Conventional wisdom says that there will be some sort of outbreak of tropical activity in August/Sept/Oct. How could there not be? It's unheard of for nothing to happen during those months.

We all know about conventional wisdom, however. It is going to be VERY interesting to watch the rest of the season play out. It's interesting to note that some of the slowest seasons have been some of the worst in terms of landfalling hurricanes. What about 1992? That was the year of Andrew, which I believe formed on August 16th. I didn't see it included in that list but maybe I am missing something?

HJ
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Hurricaneswirl just posted a link thats a good reminder that there will be a season.
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BTW ignore help4u he is a childish troll, he was a wishcaster last year, now he's a downcaster.
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80% of the seasons Jeff featured where either deadly, active, or destructive.
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Quoting help4u:
1914 is best analog year for this year,nothing is going to happen.Even the models are not inventing storms.dust,temps,shear,lowest tropical cyclone energy in over 30 years equal dead blog and season.need to start researching next year after slow season.


you would have said the exact same thing for 2004... or 2000.. or whatever late starting atlantic season that was quite active in the end. june and july are nothing compared to august and september, even october. you have a chance of being right, but a bigger chance of being wrong.
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Good thing there wasn't a blog in 1914. lol
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Quoting help4u:
1914 is best analog year for this year,nothing is going to happen.Even the models are not inventing storms.dust,temps,shear,lowest tropical cyclone energy in over 30 years equal dead blog and season.need to start researching next year after slow season.
So your willing to say there will not be a storm all year? Wow!
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It looks like I'll be way off on oss's poll we took awhile back with 16 storms. It would be nice to atleast have an invest to track.
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Link
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The last two late start seasons were well within the active cycle we are in where both years had 15 storms. Hmmmmmm!
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Wow 1914 must have been strange and calm ... then again WW1 started so I guess nature took a back seat.
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1914 is best analog year for this year,nothing is going to happen.Even the models are not inventing storms.dust,temps,shear,lowest tropical cyclone energy in over 30 years equal dead blog and season.need to start researching next year after slow season.
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I wouldn't mind a TS get give us a little rain. But I can do without another Ike (no offense, Ike).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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