TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
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I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
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The first tropical cyclone of the season, Anita developed from a tropical wave on August 29 in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. It tracked westward into an area with conditions favorable for further development, and quickly intensified into a hurricane by late on August 30. Initially, Anita was forecast to strike Texas, though a building ridge turned it to the west-southwest. The hurricane rapidly strengthened to attain peak winds of 175 mph (280 km/h), and on September 2 Anita made landfall in eastern Tamaulipas as a Category 5 hurricane.
We should have a named storm sometime this week? sst in the GOM look like a cannon waiting to go off.
Where you hearing that and are you a Viking fan?
They're drinking tea over at the Boom Boom room, after which they'll be having a nice nap.
i'll second that in a heartbeat
Don't know if you meant my post - if so didn't mean any offense - merely pointing out that those future storms are a long time away and have lots of time for normal activities before they go on stage.
Data ends July 20th. This posted in red at top of the web page: "The real-time estimates and data distribution of AOML TCHP fields have been discontinued."
What am I missing?
I've looked all over because just googling TCHP only gives you outdated info. Nothing seems to be recent. Guessing you already know this though, which is why you are asking for help. If anyone knows where to find this it would be Orcasystems. You might WU mail him of look for him later here if he is not on right now.
Garbage.
It was tied to the weather. Sort of, One system merging with the other and all. lighten up, life is short.
The innuendo or the CMC?
Exactly!
Hope it doesn't hit land.
Hey, WS!
what storm is this?
LOL, I live in the Florida Panhandle and have found there is no need to chase them, they come to us at least once every 3-5 years! Dennis put 2 feet of water in my garage when the northeast eyewall went over my house 2 months after I just moved into a new house we had built! Luckily the house was built up to new codes after Ivan and the house suffered no damage! Ivan was the scary one, that devil landed late at night and howled for hours! He helped me get a new architectural shingled roof on my old house!
Oz, look me up if you come to my area, I haven't left for a storm yet and know some pretty sweet areas to SAFELY watch them make landfall!
Cant say i dont agree.Joe b on set up comparisons to floyd. Might florida be as lucky this time? VIEW VIDEO HERE
Maka in the CPAC.
http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic3Q.php
You have experienced strong TS or Cat 1 winds at most.
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 18W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWED A WELL DEFINED WAVE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL ALSO DEPICTED WAVE PASSAGE.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN
15W-25W.
Afternoon Adrian, I was mentioning that earlier a few pages ago. Very similar to the week before Floyd. The CMC is out to lunch in my opinion.
Here, I agree. How many times have a couple of systems formed, where one was named/declared before the other?
Its possible that "pre-bill" may get upstaged by a pop-up system somewhere else and lose its place in the line...
Good question... we shall see definitely by the time TD#3 materializes.
Link
Hey - it's unfortunately still there. Does shift it more to TX than a LA/TX landfall
All we have here now is an extremely large disorganized tropical wave with a large area of low pressure. This will take at least two days to organize. Its actually so large that it resembles a west pacific invest.
Once again, glad I live in the Upstate of SC. The last time we got something was back in 2004 with two extratropical depressions. Charley, a bnig rain-maker, and Frances, which blew everything on the ground.
ABNT20 KNHC 121741
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS WEAKENED AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Remember watching that buzz saw back in 99 it was really something as it was making a bee line right for southeast florida.
Im not much for giving time frames on development. Should it take 2 days? Yes, but I've seen crazier things.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.9 3.3
look here:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/
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