TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I dont recall seeing a wave this big in a while.
I see one landfall of a major in NE FLorida but nothing in East central Florida...that IS odd
I don't even get why the TWO still mentions that system. I don't think it will spin up into anything.
WATCH THIS LOOP
Well that goes to show you how strong Cat 1/2 winds can be. Now imagine a Cat 4.
People get too caught up with the category numbers. The numbers are for sustained winds. There can be much higher gusts and tornados. I have been in tropical storms and weak cat 1's that have been worse than cat 2's, etc.
Those of us who live across from the shuttle launch pad think that NASA knew what they were doing when they built the Cape where they did. Its kinda spooky how many storms have come close to directly hitting us and then at the last second, they turn. I, however, am thankful.
Looking like our Caribbean waves are falling apart, but TD 2 and big orange bear close watching.
The media is in a frenzy now...
Your still putting your life in danger for no scientfic benefit, but its your life. Especially if you ever get trapped and need help, people will put there lives in danger to save you. I understand why some people do with millions of dollars worth of equipment, but from watching your video your standing in the wind not protected. IMO, srry.
Ike is a big example. Category 5 style storm surge in a Category 2.
(Would East Central Florida be from Daytona Beach to say, Fort Pierce?)
Since many of you know-it-alls can predict invests, TS's and Hurricanes better than the pros, I figured I would ask in here.
P.S.
I sure could use the Powerball Numbers for Saturday night as well.
Thanks in advance
(Way in Advance)
"Don't Count Your Chickens before They've Hatched!"
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.8N 25.3W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2009 11.8N 25.3W WEAK
12UTC 14.08.2009 12.5N 28.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.08.2009 12.9N 31.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.08.2009 13.1N 34.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2009 13.5N 37.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 14.0N 40.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2009 15.2N 44.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 16.0N 48.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 16.9N 52.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2009 17.8N 56.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
i will think this new wave will be and should be something to deal with
Agreed, I think Bastardi might actually be on to something. Looks like a Western Pacific Wave, it's that big.
Too many things going for it
-Developing upper level anticyclone
-Virtually no SAL to speak of
-HUGE moisture field to keep things very unstable
-Large broad are of low pressure less vulnerable to future shear and dry air.
-Best model support of the year with the HWRF and GFDL developing it
-NHC is on board with development
-28C SSTs will help development off of Africa
Id lit more but you guys get the point.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1745 UTC 14.1N 34.6W T2.5/2.5 02L
2nd reading of 2.5. I'd hedge my bets on Ana coming at the next advisory. Could be wrong, of course, we won't know for sure until the NHC say so.
Me too man. I'll chase a Cat 4 or 5, with just my car and video camera. I know its putting my life in danger, but it'll be fun.
And you're here why? Just bored? If these people like storm watching and predicting what's it to you? Go smoke another one, then get a life.
Now if only the Quikscat would show TS winds, then we could get Ana. Not that I'm hoping for a storng system, I just want something to track without it affecting anyone.
Well thats the African wave...
Interesting.
Ran the GFS..it appears the new NHC target #2 seems to fall within Hebert's box 1..Has anyone else checked it by chance? Interesting
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Stay well...
Had a little look, and I guess where Leftovers looked, was from 1850. Strongest being Cat 2 hitting that area in 1880 and 1928. Now, I mean a little look, but a lot of storms seem to refer to hitting 'near St. Augustine' which is more near the NE.
This was the case in 1880, yet it hit more E Cent rather than the NE. A few cases further back say something similar of 'landfall nr. St Augustine' but may be closer to E Cent Fl. Of course, it could actually be the NE.
Can't tell with tracks and intensity that far back.
Who knows, might be like Georgia. A few, then nothing for ages. *shrugs.
The NHC forcast track is currently off by 30 miles in 3 hours.
its not what he chooses that bothers me, its just how he portrays the actions here leading to thoughts being created in young impressionable minds, oz, i love your work i really do, i just worry with the amount of immature doofuses here, who may try to follow your lead not knowing what the heck they are doing, dont give people too much credit, we are idiots
Mike heres the 12z UKMET
Not good for Florida.
These are the items that I personally found to be of use after Ike came to town. In part two (tomorrow) I will put up my helpful observations from dealing with the insurance companies as well.
Hurricane Preparation List
Personal:
1. Rum, Rum, Rum and maybe a mixer (buy extra if the hurricane is already drawing a bulls eye on your house)
2. Bug spray
3. Sun screen
4. Closed toe work shoes
5. Disposable plates, cups and utensils
6. flashlights one for each member of the family, plus a lantern
7. Weather radio
8. Spare batteries
9. Good first aid kit
10. Digital converter box and digital antenna to pick up over the air television signals (remember all TV signals are digital now, the old stuff does not work anymore)
11. The best ice chests money can buy ( I personally like the big igloo max cold or marine models, they have better insulation)
12. Heat source for warming up meals etc., if needed (remember you should not microwave any container that has metal present)
13. Water storage bags for bathtubs or stand alone bags (water bob, water safe, etc.)
14. Enough food for every member of your household for 5 days minimum ( I personally now do 7)
15. Enough water for every member of your household for 5 days minimum (I personally now do 7)
16. Children’s games/infant needs if applicable (games, DVD’s, diapers, formula, sterile water, wipes, bug spray, children’s medicines etc)
17. Glow sticks make great nightlights for kids in a pinch
18. Baby wipes they make for a decent instant shower
19. Consider buying the individual drink mix packets to pour in water bottles to switch it up Gatorade/Kool aid/Crystal light to name a few
20. Do not forget a source of caffeine and beer is like gold after a storm
21. Campers portable shower bag, hang it off of your normal shower head
22. Adequate supply of prescription meds to last at least a couple of weeks
23. Pre-storm photos/video of home and contents (on CD). Be very thorough, they may be the only thing between you and a claims adjuster
24. Digital camera, charged and ready for post storm documentation
25. External hard drive for backing up home PC for easy transport. (note be sure to take power supply for the unit as well when evacuating)
26. Don’t forget ammo….
Power:
1. Generator (sized appropriately, I personally would not go lower than 5kw running load but the bigger it is the more gas it digests)
2. Battery powered carbon monoxide detector
3. Good lock and chain to secure generator, plus a plan on what to secure it to in order to prevent theft. (note if using a tree, have a contingency plan in place in event of tree loss) (vehicle frames work really well, but chain has to be pretty long) Note: generator can only be run in a well ventilated space such as outdoors. Do not plan on securing and running inside your garage etc., after a storm
4. Heavy duty electrical cords and/or installed transfer switch
5. Correct oil (and filter if applicable) for generator (standby or portable, if standby don’t forget an extra fan belt and radiator hoses if liquid cooled)
6. Appropriate tools to change generator oil, something to catch old oil in
7. Oversized funnel for adding fuel, small funnel for adding oil
8. Five gallon gas cans; enough to allow you to operate your generator for at least three or four days without a gas station (even if you have a natural gas/propane generator you still need it for saws vehicles etc.)
Home:
1. Leather gloves (get extras you will lose some)
2. Rope
3. Cable/zip ties
4. Duct Tape
5. Big roll of plastic sheeting
6. A tarp big enough to cover all of or a substantial part of your roof
7. Button cap roofing nails to secure tarp
8. More heavy duty trash bags than you ever think you could possibly need (ever seen the price on these after a storm)
9. Rake
10. Cordless drill, bits, drivers etc
11. Chain saw, extra chain, oil mix, bar oil and gas can for mixing gas & oil (if you have tress or your neighbors have trees) You might also consider chainsaw chaps etc. if you are unskilled with saws.
12. Hearing protection
13. Hurricane shutters
14. Fasteners for hurricane shutters
15. Ladder if you own a two story home
16. Garage door reinforcing struts (if not a hurricane rated door)
17. Safety glasses
18. Window A/C unit
19. A Can of spray paint to put number on house and paint looters will be shot signs etc.
20. Pair of gun rage body silhouettes (used) for reinforcing spray painted message.
Additional home items if you live in an area prone to flooding or surge resulting in your having to perform major damage remediation from water/trees
1. Pump sprayer rated for bleach
2. Good particulate filter masks (1 dozen)
3. five gallon buckets
4. Crow bars/pry bars/wonder bars
5. Sledge hammer
6. Trenching pick tool (best drywall demo tool ever)
7. Claw hammer
8. goggles (spraying bleach)
9. Sawz all & extra demo blades
10. Chalk line
11. Channel locks
12. Crescent wrench
13. Tape measure
14. Screw drivers (Phillips and flat)
15. Electrical voltmeter
16. Wire nuts
17. Wire cutters
18. Fan(s)
19. Bleach (lots of it for mold prevention from flood waters) I used approximately one bottle for every 200 sq. ft.
20. Wheel barrow
21. Matches (just in case it is easier to burn)
22. Square ended shovel
23. Push broom
24. Big dust pan
25. Pressure washer (if water is available) or water hose for hosing out interior
26. Portable lighting such as halogen work lamps etc.
Looks interesting...
Do you have a link to the text NRT posted? I seemed to have misplaced it.
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