TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yeah no problem.. i'll never forget that day.. woke up with a very large tree extremely close to me! too close for comfort that is!
Not to be picky, but it's the N.E. quadrant you don't want plowing thru there. It was the N.E. quadrant of Katrina that dealt the slosh into Pontchartrain and S. Mississippi.
Of course there are variables but there are variables all the time. I was just giving an example of another storm that is undergoing a similar problem. Not saying it will turn out the same way.
A couple of years ago we had to evacuate thousands from here twice in July alone due to the threat of major hurricanes barreling through the Caribbean early in the season.
You won't hear me complain about TD's that don't develop !
I can save TD2. All I need to do is write it off.
Interesting,..
Oh I know it wasn't an attack lol...I was just kinda restating what I said to make sure it was made clear I wasn't saying it would happen that way.
Thats a Hard one to answer as ones Location to the Eye would determine that. But at Bucktown near the 17th St. Canal where I was ,..we Had Sustained at 100-110,with gust to 120--130 at Peak..but I was in the western Eyewall fo 8 hours approx.
Although TD2 looks pathetic right now, I have found a decent analog for this storm...take a look back at Hurricane Irene in 2005. Took it 12 advisories to become a tropical storm and underwent similar adverse conditions that TD2 is undergoing
But did it have much larger system to contend with as TD2 does?
I love it --- Hey Baja good to see you
Anyone else get a warning last 2 min..?
The wave behind TD2 will inevitably develop into a tropical cyclone and maybe even into an incredibly strong as most of the modes suggest. Due to the fact it is developing at a lower latitude than TD2, it will reasonably take a track further south--a track that would put the Antilles and Puerto Rico at risk by next Tuesday. After this, the complication begins. By next Wednesday, a longwave trough is expected to move across the U.S. into the eastern seaboard. Depending on the timing and strength of the trough, this time may either: go out to sea, hit SE U.S, or miss the trough and move into the GOM.
No, that is one of those variables. I'd like to see this wave develop more before I say its gonna cause TD 2 to die out.
Pat...
I thought you were going to keep that thing off of me!
No spinning here please.
CRS
If the one off of the African coast fizzles out....I'll be totally shocked.
Still looks like some of the clouds south of what's left of TD 2 are being drawn into that large circulation.
No but this page has been randomly freezing my browser sometimes today. It's just the Doctor's blog, not the rest of WU.
G'nite all
None so far.
Yup, I am. These are the three most likely scenario right now, but one of them has the least chance of occurring.
Gosh, Pete...send some of that rain down this way! We had a nice bunch of rain down this way that split right before it got here...seems to be the norm here this year *sighs*
Frederic, another bridge basher.
GFS 12Z and 18Z runs, 12Z EURO, 12Z UKMET, and 18Z GFDL which is seen on TD2s forecast.
Lynn its been hot as hell......84deg now at 9:45pm
Thanks, this is cool to see. Hope the GFS is wrong!
So much for your statement yesterday of "no other threat areas in the Atlantic."....besides TD2.
Going into the gulf?
Alaina lets hope so.
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