TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
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I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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There's a great circulation and plenty of convection south of Cozumel...but its got to make it over the Yucatan first...
Glad you didn't lose that stuff
In regards to A or B? B has a ton of model support beginning with yesterday. Its why most of the local Florida mets are all over it. Most of the major global models are all over it and coincide in intensity, albeit some of them aren't so good at that such as the GFS.
Those are great image loops 451!
It sure is trying to get on the whirly-gig!
Man, look at that footprint it has! I wonder what it will do when it spins down...
(Nelly starts playing) "It's getting hot in here..."
It's just gone into stealth mode but never went away.
LOL
your post 150 of the cyclone phase shows extreme trouble fot the lesser antilles. how soon can we expect this to be in the vicinity of the islands
It definitely has a mid-level circulation and it's got the surrounding moisture rolling as well as good potential vorticity at the surface. We should see a low level center forming somewhere between those two blobs of convection throughout today and tomorrow.
Look at little TD#2 pushin' it's way through that dry air mass.
Man, I've wanted to do that so many times as I waited in line in Wal-Mart, I can't tell ya! :)
EP 10 2009081212 BEST 0 150N 1156W 30 1006 TD
Neither...CMC is showing a system in the Gulf in the mid range which has no support from any other model as of yet.
Wow...another great animation.
You can clearly see the exposed CoC.
very awesome.
Yeah that one needs alot more model support to even be discussed at this point.
TCHP Google Earth Link at bottom of page
Well... NAM is not really depicting a storm... but an organized disturb region. It could be the genesis focus for something to develop down the road as it enters the GOM if it maintains enough energy after traversing through the Greater Antilles and Cuba.
Be careful with the NAM in regards to the tropics; it's a mesoscale model with parameters that weren't really designed to handle the genesis of tropical systems. That's a general rule-of-thumb through, it's been correct on some situations.
Finally starting to look Tropical Stormish.
While CMC is the only model that develops that wave into anything signifcant, most other models (ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS) are showing a surge of moisture with that wave into the GOM. A lot of the NWS offices are reflecting that in their forecasts.
Large circulations such as this thrive because it will act as a shield to the consolidating LLC, protecting it from shear and dry air.
They also take longer to spin up - more mass to move around.
As far as the live web cam goes, that speaks for itself...you will have a live window on the storm, whether it be with the team configured as a portable unit, or hard mounted to a structure for a static shot. {I'd expect you all will be with the team.}
As far as the HD footage we'll be shooting at the same time, everyone is going to probably have to wait some time before the programs are released on YouTube.
It is our intention to create several shows from each landfall event our team covers. These 10-minute, professionally produced shows (however many there are in total) will all be in the can before the 1st one is released. Once we're ready, the shows will be released one per week continuously until they're all on YouTube.
I would expect 30-second ads to be released 3-4 weeks prior to the launch of the series.
Thank you for your interest. We are going to work very hard (when we're given the chance.)
The short answer is: not accurate at all. They can show possibilities, but the margin for error is absolutely huge.
Right now, because the storm hasn't even formed yet, the models do not have good input data, the output is extremely suspect. When you combine the lack of input data with the inherent uncertainty in a long range forecast, the net result is that the predictions have almost no skill.
Think about it: for a five-day forecast issued by the NHC, taking into account all models and data, plus expert human interpretation, the average error is 300 miles. So for a model prediction, with no good input data and no human input, the 10-day forecast error is literally 1,000 miles or more.
most of convection remains over sw quad of the cirulation as per latest vis shows the ne section void of convective cells
every person who blogs here should have this tatooed on the back of their mouse hand...
No kidding? That thing's huge right now. This could be a seriously strong and massive Hurricane.
T.D 2 Showing its underwear right now,.as the Easterly Shear pushes the Cloudtops west
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
That's just an area of vorticity, which most shower and thunderstorm complexes have since air has a tendency to spin around an area of low pressure. The GFS doesn't and hasn't as of yet shown an organized tropical system developing in the Gulf. What it is showing is an open wave approaching the northern gulf.
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