TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I posted a link to the Navy site as well. I got the warning but recognized it for what it was. I will also take down my link if it continues as a problem for anyone
He can correct me if I am wrong in saying this, but I believe he is suggesting that TD 2 always has the possibility of regenerating in a couple days when the environment becomes a little better for development.
It's ok I think we are just all on high alert after the recent virus.
True....74 days in.
how many of the most infamous hurricanes were born right off the coast of africa... seems all the big ones hitting the gulf coast were born in the yucatan or caribbean werent they? I dont get so excited about storms rolling off the coast of africa. and besides, a huge storm cant be a category five for more than a few days so if it turns into a huge storm off the coast of africa i dont think it will be so big by the time it comes here right? just my totally unscientific observation.
You have to put things in perspective. It's over 3,000 miles from Miami. Not going to rush up on anyone, for now.
Wow people are sesintive.
Not all of em.
Actually you spelled "thier" wrong its "their" lol...might wanna check that before you criticize someone else. And grammar has an A not an E.
Read post 2847 from IKE, it explains the GOM situation this weekend in detail.
Its "grammar". not "grammer"
The GFS run on 90L is still holding to its position realtive to the US East Coast for several days now.. I also still see it passing through Hebert Box 1...so it should be interesting in the week to come.
Stay well...G'day ~
Steve
Now we have grammar police. "Thier" is not a word so far as I know.
What comes around, goes around.
One good thing about naked swirls...you certainly can tell where the COC is. :-)
I was laughing at that myself.
find a school that teaches spelling lol not thier it is their
Which later help form Katrina
Weakened some more. It's still a TD, though.
Almost all of the major hurricanes were born from tropical waves. Cape Verde Hurricanes are normally larger storms, but not necessarily stronger. Katrina and Wilma developed close to the Caribbean Sea, but they originated from tropical waves off Africa. TD10 in 2005 eventually hooked up with another tropical wave and became Katrina east of Florida.
Thanks for the awesome loops.
It might, but I'm doubtful. It hasn't had deep convection for about 12 hours at least at this point.
13/1200 UTC 12.3N 135.2W T1.0/1.0 09E -- East Pacific
13/1145 UTC 11.3N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic
And with that...I exit.
You all have a nice day!
And you misspelled "It's". You need to add an apostrophe.
I thought we were weather nerds, not grammar and spelling nerds.
Guillermo is rapidly intensifying.
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