TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
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I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Like I said before... gotta wrap that convection around to help close the LLC.
is the Brown color in the sat pictures representative of Saharan dust?
I am so sad for TD2. Hopefully we get something out of our '09 season. Tis been very bad for development. Models still show strengthening as a consensus in about 3 days, to tropical storm status. Let's stay tuned, as always.
For sure, shear was what damaged it first.
Still could be a danger later on even if it does become a remnant low.
Exactly. And near Winter Haven Florida they got hit by all three storms in 2004. Charley, Francis, and Jeane. Charly was only a minor annoyance to me. Francis and Jeane a totally different story.
An appearance like that is indicative of a developing system, with two blobs/bands of moderate to heavy convection surrounding a COC on either side. 90L in other words is consolidating.
Reports are updated every few hours and with 90L being a slow mover the next update will give some indication of whether it is deepening or not.
1. NHC declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
2. NHC not declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
Frances and Jeanne both storms the eye made landfall here in Stuart, Fl. Will never forget the 2004 year as many other Floridians on both coasts.
Hi Cotillion,
97L about a month back brought very cane-like conditions to Puerto Rico. Remember, that low was dismissed, it persisted, deformed and reformed constantly.
Today I wake to gale winds in PR, not as intense as 97L but then again, maybe the brunt hasn't passed. Yesterday it was raining, and six-foot swell forecasts are up for the coast today (the south where I live is still smallish). Let's hope the swell rises during the day, and that our systems survive!
Cheers
I don't know where you live, and frankly, it doesn't matter, and this comment is aimed at all who are sorry when a storm fizzles, not just you. We live on the gulf coast and pray to the Lord above every day that EVERY STORM fizzles. I too enjoy watching the fascination with these things but please, lives and livelihoods are at stake here and I wish you ALL would stop wishcasting these things on us.
YEESH!!!
The NHC declaring at 11 am yesturday, when it was at its best.
Actually, if you look on the west side of it, instead of turning upwards, it keeps going west.
Not sure. It did have TS winds for a while, but the name would have probably been wasted.
Sometimes we mere mortals may disagree with the NHC, but that's ok, as I, at least, am fortuneate enough to live in a democracy.
Actually it was HUGE on mine...
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
I don't want them to go into landmasses, rather to stay at sea and bring swell conditions for surfing.
One man's garbage is another man's food sustenance...
14.1n 37.5w
Link
You know, I just now noticed that.
Thing is, in PR we get these bad air episodes where the ambient gets clouded by Saharan dust. What is it, sand? Something clouds the weather and makes a clear day "brumoso", I fail to find the thesaurus today. Makes it un-clear, lol
It won't be within an hour.
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