Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ana and TD 3 take aim at the Lesser Antilles

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:17 GMT le 15 août 2009

Tropical Storm Ana was born this morning, when the remnants of Tropical Depression Two made a comeback and organized into the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Ana is the latest first named storm of the season since Hurricane Andrew got its name on August 17, 1992. The two storms have some similarities, as Andrew formed in the same part of the ocean, and also struggled in its early days with high wind shear and dry air. Let's hope the similarities end there.

Ana is struggling this afternoon. After an modest burst of heavy thunderstorm activity prompted NHC to upgrade Ana to a tropical storm early this morning, Ana has run into strong upper-level winds from the west that are creating high wind shear. This shear was not forecast, and it is not clear how long it will last. The shear has acted to drive dry air into the core of Ana, destroying almost all of Ana's heavy thunderstorms. The low-level center of the storm is now exposed to view, something that often foreshadows the death of a storm. It is possible the shear will destroy Ana, and several models (the GFS and ECMWF) forecast this may be the case. However, the shear forecast calls for shear to drop into the low range, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Tuesday. If the shear does drop as forecast, Ana should be able to moisten the atmosphere around it sufficiently to protest itself from the dry Saharan air that surrounds it (Figure 1). SSTs are 27°C today, and will increase to 28°C by Sunday. By the time Ana moves into the Bahamas, total ocean heat content rises steeply (Figure 2), and rapid intensification of Ana is possible, if the shear and dry air haven't disrupted the storm. The intensity forecast models, for the most part, predict a steady intensification of Ana to the threshold of hurricane strength five days from now. The HWRF model is on the strong side, predicting a Category 2 hurricane. The GFDL predicts a weak tropical storm five days from now, but that is because the model has Ana passing over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, something the other models do not predict. In summary, the intensity forecast for Ana has higher than usual uncertainty, and I give equal chances that the storm will be a hurricane--or non-existent--four days from now.

Figure 1. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the north of Tropical Depression Three. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Depression Three forms, could be Bill later today
QuikSCAT data from this morning and satellite loops revealed that the tropical wave (90L) in the middle Atlantic has finally developed a well developed surface circulation and can be classified as Tropical Depression Three. Recent satellite imagery suggests that TD 3 may already be Tropical Storm Bill. Water vapor imagery (Figure 1) shows that TD 3's center consolidated a few hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Thus, the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Ana has been. Ana may also act to moisten the atmosphere in front of TD 3, helping protect the storm from the SAL as it edges farther north over the the three days.

Figure 2. Heat content of the ocean, in kJ per square cm. Oceanic heat content steadily increases for Ana and TD 3 as they approach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Oceanic heat content levels of 90 kJ per square cm are frequently associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: University of Miami.

Wind shear is moderate, 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to 10 - 15 knots on days 2 - 5. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow TD 3 to intensify steadily, and I expect the storm will be at hurricane strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Most of our reliable intensity models strengthen TD 3 into a hurricane by Wednesday. Oceanic heat content (Figure 2) increases sharply just before the islands, so TD 3 could be intensifying rapidly as it moves through or just north of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. TD 3 consolidated farther south than expected, so the track models calling for a more northerly path were probably incorrect. In particular, the ECMWF model, which had TD 3 turning sharply northwestward and missing the Lesser Antilles Islands, was probably much too far to the north in this morning's 00Z run. TD 3 will probably pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles islands on Wednesday and Thursday.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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2001. LAnovice 00:12 GMT le 16 août 2009
AMEN! Member Since: 7 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 356

2002. Tazmanian 00:12 GMT le 16 août 2009
ok wish one of you made bill mad??? Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

2003. canesrule1 00:12 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Funkadelic: Maybe, but right now it is right where the models predicted it would be. I say florida should definetely be spared, but will see some nasty weather from it in arond 10 days. Should stay well east of florida, even if it doesnt recurve all the way. Odd's are it will be strong enough to feel some kind of weekness and should get lifted north a bit. Maybe that's why the models shifted so much today... Just monitior it thats all I can say! yup

2004. clwstmchasr 00:12 GMT le 16 août 2009
quakeman55 8:06 PM EDT on August 15, 2009 Quoting clwstmchasr: StormW may not technically be a met but he is #2 on my list behind Dr. Masters. I also very much resect the work of weather456 and scottsvb. Adrian (hurricane23) and CCHSweatherman are very good too. Also, you can't forget our IKE, and StormJunkie. Lots of very respectable Wunderground mets on here :) I agree with you. I just thought I'd name the top of the class. Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2759

2005. BrandiQ 00:12 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting StormW: BBL. From my 3:30 p.m. update: a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/show.html"target="_blank">TROPICAL STORM ANA / TD3 / AUG 15, 2009 SPECIAL UPDATE 3:30 P.M. EDT Good evening! Member Since: 25 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

2006. Orcasystems 00:13 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting zoomiami: Hi Drak: you are good at what you do, but you don't have a degree yet right? And when you do, who's going to be better? The person who only has a degree or the person who has learned from many different methods? By the way, what does your Mom do with all your comments? I pull my kids' ear! Zoo, did you water the lawn yet?? Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2007. CJ5 00:13 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Drakoen: Arrogance of youth? LOL! Surely you jest. In the context of his post, I think that is an accurate statement. Of course, that same arrogance he speaks of can be applied to all ages. Member Since: 4 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1709

2008. Cavin Rawlins 00:13 GMT le 16 août 2009
Nice banding going on with Bill Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2009. HurricaneKyle 00:14 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: ok wish one of you made bill mad??? The ones that said bill was an instant fish because of one model run rofl. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

2010. stormdude77 00:16 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting HurricaneKyle: That might be on the TWO by 8 AM tomorrow. Some models develop it. GFS and CMC are the two I think of off the top of my head. the ECMWF also develops it

2011. CosmicEvents 00:14 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting scottsvb: True but Mets out of school know the latest and have the current skills. StormW and others that been tracking storms are quite knowledgeable..especially with experience and studying up on stuff yourself. When StormW mentions something.. I do also take what he says into account cause he dont tell more than what is nowcasting and nearcasting..and hardly ever goes more than a few days out...cause he knows patterns change and so do models. Exactly! StormW has been around the block quite a few times. He knows his stuff,he knows the seas(he's been there). Presently training mets have the newer skill sets. Take it all with a grain of salt. Personally I go with . . 1. NHC first(mostly StormW follows their reasonings, which is a wise thing to do, imo) . 2. Dr. Masters . . . 3-4. The couple of trained mets who have gone off to higher waters and prefer to stay away from this zoo. . 3-4. Weather456 . Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

2013. kmanhurricaneman 00:14 GMT le 16 août 2009
ok! guys i am baaaaack! Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002

2014. Cavin Rawlins 00:15 GMT le 16 août 2009
Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2015. Patrap 00:15 GMT le 16 août 2009
AL032009 - Tropical Storm BILL 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve Time of Latest Image: 20090815 2200 UTC Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

2016. bajelayman2 00:15 GMT le 16 août 2009
Hey Stormdude77. Looks like we have a bit of a worry with Bill. Each time I look at the loop and his size, it comes home that he is only two days away (Sunday, Monday) then Tuesday and Bill in our area. I am most horrified at his size, impressive looking monster. We need to be prepared to get anything we do not have Monday am, if necessary. I did some supply shopping this morning, food, batteries. It would be nice if the GFS, as Futuremet notes, is right, but I doubt it. Even though I am an amateur, I have seen some of these things pass and my humble opinion is that some of the islands are going to get it. My gut tells me to be prepared. We shall see. Keep safe. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

2017. stormwatcherCI 00:15 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting CJ5: It looks like Ana is about 2.5deg N of where she was this morning and her convection finally moved over the center for the most part. Actually she is .2 degrees further south than this morning. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

2018. VAbeachhurricanes 00:16 GMT le 16 août 2009
456 can i get that link of the satilite pic? Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802

2019. HurricaneKyle 00:16 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Weather456: Nice banding going on with Bill Textbook banding, might need to work on the North a little bit but it looks like very healthy outflow. Anti-Cyclone is helping out here, fanning out the system. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

2020. zoomiami 00:16 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: Zoo, did you water the lawn yet?? Haha - we are quacking around here! Good to see you. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

2021. MississippiWx 00:17 GMT le 16 août 2009
Ah-nah refuses to lose. She is making a comeback this evening. Convection almost back over the center. Ana IR Shortwave Loop Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8622

2022. stormwatcherCI 00:17 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting bajelayman2: Hey Stormdude77. Looks like we have a bit of a worry with Bill. Each time I look at the loop and his size, it comes home that he is only two days away (Sunday, Monday) then Tuesday and Bill in our area. I am most horrified at his size, impressive looking monster. We need to be prepared to get anything we do not have Monday am, if necessary. I did some supply shopping this morning, food, batteries. It would be nice if the GFS, as Futuremet notes, is right, but I doubt it. Even though I am an amateur, I have seen some of these things pass and my humble opinion is that some of the islands are going to get it. My gut tells me to be prepared. We shall see. Keep safe. All of you in the eastern Caribbean keep safe. Make sure you are well prepared because as the saying goes it is better to be safe than sorry. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

2023. hurricaster 00:18 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting StormW: Quoting clwstmchasr: StormW may not technically be a met but he is #2 on my list behind Dr. Masters. I also very much resect the work of weather456 and scottsvb. Well, technically I am a met. Go to the AMS website...look at the Interperative Memorandum. This part of it: Article III Section 4 (C) is intended to encourage membership for individuals without a professional degree satisfying the criteria in section (A) or (B) above, that have at least a minimal educational background in the underlying science and substantial experience in the field. The individual is expected to have undertaken a study program from an accredited institution or institutions that has provided a minimum fundamental knowledge in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services. Military training in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services that did not lead to a degree is appropriate to satisfy the criteria in this section. The requirements for three years of work experience in the last five years can be fulfilled by experience that requires independent analysis, interpretation, and professional judgment in the application of atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic sciences. Member Since: 22 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 109

2025. superweatherman 00:18 GMT le 16 août 2009
thanks weather456.... but why north.... you think south of the islands (hati, Cuba, Puerto Rico)it is hotter SST Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283

2026. canesrule1 00:18 GMT le 16 août 2009
Observation 11: UZNT13 KWBC 160004 XXAA 66001 99167 70468 04166 99015 26630 07521 00129 25427 07524 92811 20817 09022 85541 18834 09019 70189 10661 10543 50590 06168 08017 40761 15963 09517 30972 29970 15524 25099 40761 14529 20247 53361 15510 15427 657// 15025 88999 77999 31313 09608 82332 61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 11 62626 SPL 1677N04687W 2347 MBL WND 08025 AEV 20801 DLM WND 11521 013145 WL150 07524 083 REL 1674N04678W 233242 SPG 1677N04686W 234 724 = XXBB 66008 99167 70468 04166 00015 26630 11891 18605 22860 19224 33850 18834 44830 18860 55798 17662 66734 13666 77583 01329 88517 05358 99503 06171 11489 07557 22464 08764 33448 10761 44429 12567 55413 14960 66404 15764 77299 30170 88258 38764 99230 45156 11196 54362 22167 629// 33145 66537 21212 00015 07521 11009 08025 22957 08026 33880 09516 44850 09019 55790 10525 66672 10545 77562 10540 88527 11023 99502 08018 11491 09015 22467 06018 33431 08514 44409 07517 55392 10518 66359 13020 77319 13023 88301 15524 99264 15035 11232 13020 22208 15008 33185 18014 44171 14510 55166 15508 66160 13517 31313 09608 82332 61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 11 62626 SPL 1677N04687W 2347 MBL WND 08025 AEV 20801 DLM WND 11521 013145 WL150 07524 083 REL 1674N04678W 233242 SPG 1677N04686W 234 724 =

2027. Cavin Rawlins 00:18 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: 456 can i get that link of the satilite pic? sure LINK Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2028. STXpat 00:19 GMT le 16 août 2009
friggin clowns Member Since: 18 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

2029. Hurricanejer95 00:19 GMT le 16 août 2009
Whats this? Is Bill happy? LOL! Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224

2030. stormwatcherCI 00:19 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting jrweatherman: 1999. scottsvb 8:12 PM EDT on August 15, 2009 Quoting zoomiami: geez Drak, you're dense sometimes. That was a compliment to you, for all the work you do here, and the schooling. I dont think Drakeon graduated yet from HighSchool last I saw... he maybe 17? not sure He is a teenager. A very intelligent one at that. I take great heed in what he says. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

2032. stormdude77 00:20 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting bajelayman2: Hey Stormdude77. Looks like we have a bit of a worry with Bill. Each time I look at the loop and his size, it comes home that he is only two days away (Sunday, Monday) then Tuesday and Bill in our area. I am most horrified at his size, impressive looking monster. We need to be prepared to get anything we do not have Monday am, if necessary. I did some supply shopping this morning, food, batteries. It would be nice if the GFS, as Futuremet notes, is right, but I doubt it. Even though I am an amateur, I have seen some of these things pass and my humble opinion is that some of the islands are going to get it. My gut tells me to be prepared. We shall see. Keep safe. If Bill doesn't make the WNW turn between 40-45W, then it might not go north of the islands. Tomorrow should be very interesting.....

2033. Skyepony (Mod) 00:20 GMT le 16 août 2009
Gonzo sampled the low level life line between Ana & bill where it comes into Ana on the NE side.. Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 16th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 150mb Coordinates: 16.7N 46.8W (View map) Location: 892 miles (1435 km) to the ENE (74°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Marsden Square: 041 (About) Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1015mb (29.97 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 75° (from the ENE) 21 knots (24 mph) 1000mb 129m (423 ft) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F) 75° (from the ENE) 24 knots (28 mph) 925mb 811m (2,661 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 19.1°C (66.4°F) 90° (from the E) 22 knots (25 mph) 850mb 1,541m (5,056 ft) 18.8°C (65.8°F) 15.4°C (59.7°F) 90° (from the E) 19 knots (22 mph) 700mb 3,189m (10,463 ft) 10.6°C (51.1°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F) 105° (from the ESE) 43 knots (49 mph) 500mb 5,900m (19,357 ft) -6.1°C (21.0°F) Approximately -24°C (-11°F) 80° (from the E) 17 knots (20 mph) 400mb 7,610m (24,967 ft) -15.9°C (3.4°F) Approximately -29°C (-20°F) 95° (from the E) 17 knots (20 mph) 300mb 9,720m (31,890 ft) -29.9°C (-21.8°F) Approximately -50°C (-58°F) 155° (from the SSE) 24 knots (28 mph) 250mb 10,990m (36,056 ft) -40.7°C (-41.3°F) Approximately -52°C (-62°F) 145° (from the SE) 29 knots (33 mph) 200mb 12,470m (40,912 ft) -53.3°C (-63.9°F) Approximately -64°C (-83°F) 155° (from the SSE) 10 knots (12 mph) 150mb 14,270m (46,818 ft) -65.7°C (-86.3°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 150° (from the SSE) 25 knots (29 mph) Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29358

2034. hurricaster 00:21 GMT le 16 août 2009
Long, long, long time lurker here. Been through the some of the more interesting storms of late...Allison, Ivan, Rita, Humberto, Ike. Anyway, been following StormW for years and well aware of his credentials. He is 100% a MET with more personal experience than 99.8% of the qualified METS out there. Thank you for all that you do StormW! Member Since: 22 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 109

2035. Cavin Rawlins 00:21 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting superweatherman: thanks weather456.... but why north.... you think south of the islands (hati, Cuba, Puerto Rico)it is hotter SST not south but if it travels over the islands it could weaken significantly. If slides to the north, it will be over waters, and waters of 29 plus C. So the north slide would favor a more strengthening Ana, and could bring it to a 70 mph per the NHC. Most models dont really do anything with Ana, so intensity is a bit uncertain. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2036. clwstmchasr 00:21 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting StormW: Quoting clwstmchasr: StormW may not technically be a met but he is #2 on my list behind Dr. Masters. I also very much resect the work of weather456 and scottsvb. Well, technically I am a met. Go to the AMS website...look at the Interperative Memorandum. This part of it: Sorry StormW! I was following the blog along and Iguess Drakeon had me convinced you were not a met. It seems a lot of people on this site don't like him. I did say that you are #2 right behind Dr. M. Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2759

2037. 2ifbyC 00:21 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting futuremet: Yes, knowledge is great, but wisdom is far greater, for it is knowledge applied... ... with all the 'bruises' from past mistakes!!! 8-) Member Since: 18 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

2038. HurricaneKyle 00:21 GMT le 16 août 2009
Actually Bill has moved slightly south of west today. But a General west movement. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

2039. boomerang08 00:21 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Hurricanejer95: Whats this? Is Bill happy? LOL! Lol!!!

2040. srada 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
This shear was not forecast, and it is not clear how long it will lastPer Dr. Masters If the models didnt forecast the shear, then what confidence do we have in the trough that they are predicting to be strong enough to pull "pre-bill" out to sea? Member Since: 17 août 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

2041. CatastrophicDL 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting HurricaneKyle: Textbook banding, might need to work on the North a little bit but it looks like very healthy outflow. Anti-Cyclone is helping out here, fanning out the system. I'm not seeing an anti-cyclone with Bill. Link Member Since: 3 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519

2042. bajelayman2 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: All of you in the eastern Caribbean keep safe. Make sure you are well prepared because as the saying goes it is better to be safe than sorry. Thanks for the thoughts. You're in Cayman, best wishes to you too. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

2043. Tazmanian 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Hurricanejer95: Whats this? Is Bill happy? LOL! yes he is happy i think i give bill some cake Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

2044. PanhandleChuck 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Wow "They" have invaded the blog in droves. This Blog is gonna get filled up with such nonsense, that it is gonna crash..... Sorry that I added to the nonsense LOL Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

2045. canesrule1 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
I think this might be bill when it reaches the Islands: hurricane Marilyn 95'

2046. weathersp 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Bill: Um... and Bill And of course Bill... and Oh hahaha.... Bill.. Member Since: 14 janvier 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

2047. Ameister12 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Dry air is retreating to the west of Ana. Ana Water Vapor Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

2048. zoomiami 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: yes he is happy i think i give bill some cake lol Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

2049. CJ5 00:22 GMT le 16 août 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Actually she is .2 degrees further south than this morning. Actually, you are right and I was wrong. I meant .2 N but after relooking at the latest coordinates it is .2S. I should have check coordinates than going by eye balling it..lol Member Since: 4 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1709

2050. Cavin Rawlins 00:23 GMT le 16 août 2009
Bill moving slighty south of due west Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2051. hurricane23 00:23 GMT le 16 août 2009
As bill intensifys at a pretty good clip during the next day or two theres a pretty decent shot it will feel the weakness sooner rather the later.Hopefully sometime next week the gulfstream jet should begin to fly to get a much better idea how strong that ridge is.Latest quikscat on bill was pretty impressive. Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

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