Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The brass facts from the HH are coming in, why would they speculate?
No, those pinks are 25 mph, refer to my post above.
None even close
.
Thanks in advance!
I thought Gilbert was the record holder until beaten by Wilma, although that may be for low pressure, rather than recorded wind speed.
It'll be interesting to see where Bill ends up on the record table.
Weather and Climate Data
Home Analyses Forecasts Meteograms Climate Outlooks Hurricane Potential
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity
The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
lol
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Ana (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 17.7N 65.2W
Location: 75 miles (121 km) to the SE (131°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 19 knots (22 mph)
1000mb 114m (374 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 130° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph)
925mb 801m (2,628 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 29 knots (33 mph)
850mb 1,535m (5,036 ft) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:18Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W
Splash Time: 17:20Z
Release Location: 17.68N 65.2W View map)
Release Time: 17:18:32Z
Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W (
Splash Time: 17:20:40Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 25 knots (29 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1011mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 19 knots (22 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 20800
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Oh sorry my bad.
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Ana (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 17.7N 65.2W
Location: 75 miles (121 km) to the SE (131°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 19 knots (22 mph)
1000mb 114m (374 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 130° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph)
925mb 801m (2,628 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 29 knots (33 mph)
850mb 1,535m (5,036 ft) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:18Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W
Splash Time: 17:20Z
Release Location: 17.68N 65.2W View map)
Release Time: 17:18:32Z
Splash Location: 17.69N 65.22W (
Splash Time: 17:20:40Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 25 knots (29 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1011mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 19 knots (22 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 20800
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1013mb (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F)
963mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F)
850mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F)
843mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 19 knots (22 mph)
875mb 130° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
843mb 125° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
Its ok to have an opinion but its based on no facts from everything you've said this morning.
You're kidding, right?
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 19 knots (22 mph)
875mb 130° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
843mb 125° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
it was on storm stories last week about three reporters who rode out camille in a beach front motel along with many who chose to stay in the rooms. It was one of the only two buildings left standing on the entire biolxi coast.
-------------------------------------------------
from FAY ADVISORY
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
It is a trend... definitely UKM wasn't pointing towards a more western solution for nothing. We just have to see if this trends continues for new runs later.
WISHCASTER! WISHCASTER! hehe ;)
I am not looking right now, but watch for and discard any SFMR ob over land. Always a very high bias when SFMR gets a reading on land or in shallow water. NHC will sort through them and toss 'em, if so.
Think the cool front could shove this into the gulf? Lot of energy there, put it a few hundred miles into the gulf and wait for Anna? lol, just kidding, that could never happen.
What would Bill have to do/be doing, in order for it to track into New England (Maine particularly) ? I saw that most models having it curving away... but not by a great distance. I also noticed most models seemed off regarding other storms last year.
Thanks much.
12 ZULU GFS
Okay..I am starting to get worried...Im in NC..are the models now trending toward the LEFT for Bill?
looked like it did after Katrina in the Pass.
I have learned a ton from what I refer to as the "A" posters such as Drakoen, Ike, StormW, and Patrap so let me first say THANK YOU!
Since I basically have zero meteorological experience other then as a amateur observer I never feel the need to post but based on the latest NHC 2pm forecast track of Ana from the NHC and as a resident of West Palm Beach I was hoping to elicit some "A" poster advice.
Considering what we saw with Claudette less then 24 hours ago, is the forecast intensity of the current Ana realistic as it reaches south Florida? I know there are a couple thousand factors involved in estimating intensity but if Ana follows the center line guidance won't the warm SST's just north of Cuba give her the firepower necessary to strengthen unexpectedly?
As an aside, I was on the northern edge of what became Claudette this past Saturday while playing golf and I have to say I was more distracted by the weather overhead then my usual distractions from the cart girl. :-)
Any comments / insight would be appreciated.
(~ 29.28 inHg) 188 meters
(~ 617 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 119° at 14 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 16.1 mph) 24.7°C
(~ 76.5°F) 12.0°C
(~ 53.6°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 17.0 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
121.4%
I'm an A-list celebrity here lol! Wunderground paparazzi following me everywhere
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