Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Link
Storm information valid as of: Monday, August 17, 2009 18:00 Z
Coordinates: 14.4N 46.0W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 919 miles (1479 km) to the E (84°) from Bridgetown, Barbados
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 969 mb (28.61 inHg | 969 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 80 knots (92 mph | 41 m/s)
You're welcome. Please note I had to correct the post to delete the reference to 990. I had it right the first time.
Link
The NAM sucks at forecasting for the tropics. Its like the GFDL trying to forecast a blizzard.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I use to have the Hurricane Hunters on Google Earth but I had to restore my computer and now it is not there. I have Google Earth open and can not find the Hurricane Hunters anywhere.
Under layers, there is a weather/hurricane season2009/Ana section but no hurricane hunters.
Help! Where can I find the hunters?
Link
Thank you.
Correct! lol!
Talking to Bill or something a few noses away.
12z CMC showc something.
LOCATION...14.6N 46.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB
Thanks.
How concerned Dr. Masters? I live on Cape Cod, MA.
Hey Doug!
I'll be in South Florida on Wednesday!
Live Webcam all day on Wednesday!
Oz---
http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS IN
TRACK FORECASTING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE NHC
TRACK ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
Still plenty of coast on the East Coast (and Bermuda) that should be concerned.
WTNT33 KNHC 172032
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES...
1570 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES...
1570 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
This might be the season in it's entirety,though we might be able to squeeze 3-4 more named storms during the next 4-6 weeks.
Too far out to know just how concerned you should be...but you should be following Bill. Probably it will miss you, but this far out you can't be sure.
It's the neighbors stuff I worry about. People just don't get it sometimes
000
WTNT32 KNHC 172037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS DISSIPATED...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ANA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ANA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE REMNANTS OF ANA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 68.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI
i don't believe it is still at 90mph
Yea but its still better than most of the forcasts on this blog.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS DISSIPATED...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ANA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ANA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE REMNANTS OF ANA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 68.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI
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