Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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QuikScat has a southwest bias on center location. You have to look at the ambiguity, which is real difficult to decipher.
The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center
Now Bill is temporarily moving back to the west, but I think a more wnw to nw movement will resume shortly, especially since Bill will continue to strengthen today, IMO.
"DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER LAND OR SEA AT
THE MOMENT. ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDING AT 00Z...HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE LOCAL SURFACE HEATING
BEGINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS HURRICANE BILL APPROACHES AND FLOW AROUND
HIM BENDS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. CURRENTLY
HURRICANE BILL`S TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TO BE OF MUCH INFLUENCE SAVE FOR SOME WEAK LONG PERIOD SWELL
AND A DEFINITE DISRUPTION TO THE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL LEAVE
VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY SUCH THAT LAND AND SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCES DOMINATE. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN
THE AREA EXPECT INTERIOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND THEN.
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA AND WEAK TROUGHS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS BRING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS NOT FORECAST UNTIL THE
FOLLOWING THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM PLACING A
STRONG LOW IN THIS WAVE...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL
OCCUR."
Thank you for your good, concise posts, all the time.
Immigration will not allow you to enter Bermuda as a "camper". You need to tell them where you're staying. Why wouldn't you have a cellphone? Anyway, just stay away please. There'll be nothing for you here (crossing fingers!).
Tropics and Gulf IR Animation Link - Ana is dashed upon the rocks, er mountains of Hispaniola - Bill eneters, stage right
Love the fast answers on here ;), The models seem to putting landfall just west of me in nova scotia, but the way models seem to be shifting, who knows. If this does happen ill be sure you put some pictures up for ya'll
Everyone watching Bill with trepidation.
I'm probably not the best choice to answer this, but I believe intensity forecasts are the hardest part of the NHC's job. They're much better at predicting where it will go rather than how strong it will be when it gets there.
Connie,
If you go to the main Wunderground page, click on tropical in the top left corner, then scroll down, you will see computer models that forecast track. This one is from 2 a.m., so we may see an 8 a.m. or at least 2 p.m. update, but so far no big swing toward South Florida.
It's not safe to say anything, yet, although S. Florida seems very unlikely. Landfall in the Carolinas is more of a possiblity.
The mets seem convinced that the trough will build in time and will be strong enough to suck Bill up. They're the experts, so who are we to disagree?
If the trough were not to build at all, south Florida would be in the firing line.
i think the models have a tough time figuring out redevelopment and rapid intensification because we still don't fully understand the meteorological reasoning for both redevelopment and rapid intensification. As the nhc states, track is much easier to predict than intensity.
Since the meteorological reasoning isn't fully understood, the mathematical models to fully incorporate all conditions which lead to rapid intensification isn't complete.
As we better understand the meteorology with rapidly intensifying tropical systems, the models will improve as well. A classic chicken and egg scenario.
I saw them....but they keep moving west....I am hoping that it is impossible for them to move to South Florida...I guess I'm just hoping people will tell me that there is no way that this storm can go to south florida...I know I'm paranoid...but these things are scary!
Where the models and forcast track show it turning away and we are probably 96% okay.. You never want to completely ignore a tropical system that is south and east of you at this time of year... Keep an eye but no need to obsess about it
Still not convinced that Bill will be a fish storm because of his strength and the lack of strength of the trough, but time will tell. Judging on what he looks like now I'm willing to bet he gets to a min Cat4 before its over with.
Models do a poor job a predicting quick developing storms and quick intensifing storms. The only model i rely on in Home base storms ie. GOM/Bahmama storms that blow uf fast is the NAM model which does a very good job as a short range model at predicting intensifaction of daily thunderstorms and also quick developing systems in the GOM/Bahamas and NW Caribbean!
You can see it has picked up on Probably old ANA
I started worrying again...I bugged you yesterday...
Not really. They're pretty much in the same place they were yesterday. If anything, the models are showing S Fl safer than yesterday, since the UKMET is no longer an outlier to the west.
Models did a good job predicting Bill. Lousy at Claudette.
Looks like Ana is popping some convection over a wide area....
after the HH's have flown into Bill.
Sully already has an update on the NE Weather Blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/show.html
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