Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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PanhandleChuck asked the same question. It would appear that condtions are favorable for something to develop. There is abundant moisture off the African coast and the High is expected to stay strong. However, wind sheer may inhibit it for a few days. It is probabaly too early to call this one. It does have a moderate spin to it. So let us wait until Bill gets out of the way and we can all start worrying about the new. Exciting in a way isn't it?
I'm in Yarmouth, rarepearl. I think it's good for us to be prepared for Bill, because an impact is possible, but frankly I'm less concerned than I was last evening. The ensemble models are moving it more and more away from us and out to sea. I'm more concerned about Bermuda.
Having said that, it's still a long way out.
Michael Fish stood in front of the cameras doing his weather forecast and said "The BBC received a phone call from a woman asking if there was a hurricane on the way. Don't worry, there isn't"
He never got over it. That clip has been shown on British television many, many times. Apparently, the woman who phoned had had a call from a relative in France who was experiencing it.
Most of the bad gales in the U.K occur in the north, but that was an exception.
(some year they will learn the address of the NHC).
Satellite
LISTEN:
When you are 80% of the Model showing the same trend then you have GOT TO go with that - just cos someone here thinks that HIGH north of BILL or whatever will prevent it from being fish etc etc is nothing more than wishing!
My interest in now with the wave that just exited Africa - it's around 10N and with good convection and turning!
ONCE AGAIN: BILL IS A FISH as far as CONUS is concerned!
LETS MOVE ON...LOL
Anything can happen... keep your eyes open!
I never thought Ike was going to be a fish storm, but I would have bet a bunch of money that Ike would not enter the Gulf. I was in complete denial until I saw those video's of Ike hitting Cuba with those massive waves.
I have some pictures that I uploaded last year of the old pier when Gustav was making landfall west of us. They're not the best quality, but it was impressive.
.."OMG!..their Break-blog fighting again"..
Last night everybody was saying it was going west. didn't happen.
Does it really have potential to hit us harder than Juan in NS??
How do you get old forecast tracks like that?
LMAO!
Glad you added "as far as CONUS is concerned", but I still don't like "fish" being used when, models or not, a potentially major storm is at our doorstep.
I kind of agree with Canesrule1 about Bill though.
I am no forecaster, but I would definetly keep a close eye on it. Remember keep your friends close and your enemies closer
... and if it doesn't ... YIKES!
Noticed NHC has a yellow on it. I've been keeping eye on it (think Claudette). Once it clears Cuba will need to be watched imho just so it doesn't sneak up on us. Like everything down there it will eventually turn north into the cauldron. If it manages to have even a little organization could be a problem.
Reading your posts is like watching a tennis match ... fish.. serve.. Florida.. Serve.. Fish.. Serve.. Florida
Hey! I've been there.
I hope you don't have anything like that again. I'd hate see that area tore up.
You are correct....Andrew was written off on more than one occasion. The dynamics of this storm is a bit different as well. Andrew was a more compact storm with most of the 135 mph plus winds near the core and moe compact. In my opinion Bill has the makeup of a Hurrican Frances in the overall size.
Thanks for showing them the link. My facility with linking is not that good. Nice to know there is someone who can place a picture with a statement. Perhaps a bit premature, but what is your impression of the feature which has recently emerged off of Africa?
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