Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Link
The NHC always states that locations in the immediate region pay attention to the system. Thats nothing knew. It does not mean that it is necessarily threat.
Ok, now, to show that you are correct, all you have to do is have some actual evidence to support your statement.
Since you are connected to the internet, you should easily be able to find this support. Then post it.
Nope....
Here's the 5 day cone that showed the farthest northward longitude at day 5...does that show NC? Looks like south Florida...
Yes
the weakness was supposed to turn bill...and have him in a straight wnw line which hasnt happened as much as anticipated...hes only going just slightly north of west....but i dont see this as being enough to make him miss the trough...so, yes...the weakness was supposed to shift direction...and hasnt dont it as much as forecast.
Next scheduled update is 5 p.m.
- WTO
It does seem there could be a weak circulation
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER...WITH
THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE. THE LATEST
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF
125 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. IN SUCH
INTENSE HURRICANES...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE
EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
PREDICT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...
AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.
LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE
AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAVORABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT
IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR AROUND 290/15. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW THE
HURRICANE RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AROUND DAY 5. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
TRACK MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WE SEE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE
WESTERNMOST AND THE GFS IS THE NORTHEASTERNMOST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.7N 55.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W 110 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W 115 KT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
here is all the updates for Ike.
Was about to say the same thing... especially with people saying "westcasting" when all people are doing are making observations as to a real potential increase in threat to those in Bill's path.
Regardless...Ike still missed the turn that was forecasted
Ike hit cuba, which was well within the 5-day cone...anyway, the point is, Ike was never ever ever forecasted by NHC to miss the US entirely. Ever.
Rest easy 456 Bill has committed NW now.
He didn't miss the turn they said he was blocked by a strong high pressure system!!!!!!!!!!!
Nailed it.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.9mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 5.1 5.1
Scene Type : LARGE EYE
They are without doubt more correct than you.
Hey Scott-- haven't seen you on much lately with your informative updates! Good to see ya!
doesn't quickstat show what could be a weak circulation there? I am looking at it and it looks like a couple west barbs... looking forwards to your thoughts!
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.9mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 6.0 6.0
It could be an Andrew Track, or a Ike track or a Hugo track or a Floyd track..
Lets not forget, storms with great intensity can create their own steerin pattern, that at least what they said Hugo did
Ohhh Danny Boy
Viewing: 451 - 501
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