Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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On Ah-nah...."Tropical Rainstorm Ana, or what was Ana, has been ripped up and disorganized by the large, rugged islands of the northern Caribbean. However, AccuWeather.com Meteorologists remained concerned that Ana will regenerate or perhaps a new system will develop in the extensive clusters of thunderstorms.
The center of this disturbed area is over Cuba now and the greatest potential for redevelopment will be over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico or even the Florida Straits.
Intense, gusty, drenching thunderstorms will pound Cuba, nearby islands and south Florida over the next couple of days due to Ana's influence. These monster storms will bring the risks of torrential rainfall, flooding and mudlsides."
Good thing thing you are warning people
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS
NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
you can see the clouds pulling together on exana here it could bring alot of rain to so fla later tonight and tomorow the ull off the wst of fla it guding it right now stay tuned
Link
90 miles.
That is Nantucket Island, Massachusetts.
Distance is 170 kilometers or 106 miles or 92 nautical miles
Depends on where you are. The closest of points is roughly 90 miles from land point to land point.
Not just New England needs to stay vigilant. Probably from NC north still needs to watch
That's exactly my point. People say "Ike was supposed to hit S Florida and missed!" like it was some huge error. Instead, it hit a land mass about 100 miles south of Florida. Not a big miss at all.
Once they penetrate the core I'd be looking more toward flight level winds than SFMR...the SFMR doesnt have the best track record for hurricanes (example: Dean)
Some of us in the Lesser Antilles are ready, I just need to get my shutters up which will take a couple of hours..everything else is done
HAHA! I don't see anyone rewriting history, just stating thoughts and observations. some poeple get a little to hasty to judge and must agree with the NHC on everything. The cone is final judgement... I like the NHC but like anything they make errors... We bloggers make many more but don't make the NHC gods because they are not!
Yes. That means the 5-day error margin is 500 MILES. That is a lot! TWC's Carl Parker is saying Bill is rapidly intensifying. He is horrible
We call them indoor pools.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/1989-present_OFCL_v_BCD5_ind_ATL_TI_errors.txt
AL 02 2009081812 BEST 0 195N 750W
Data subject to change.
based on his latest avatar, I'd guess his mothers bathroom...
thanks
i am not an expert but i think that bill will move without threatening land
20n
60w
like UKM
Link
Great news.
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