Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 — Blog Index
18:25 GMT le 18 août 2009
I just twittered this info as well, I'll be trying out twitter this season to send out updates that aren't worthy of an entire blog post. Our twitter name is wunderground.
Jeff Masters
I remember last weeks models had "Son of Andrew" hitting south florida too. Indeed, things "can" change.
"Guantanamo Bay NAS, CU (Airport)
Updated: 27 min 37 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
83 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.95 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 89 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 4300 ft
Scattered Clouds 8000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 15000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 56 ft"
Thanks for the confirmation.
145 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS AND THEN EXPAND WESTERN INTO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY....THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WAVE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/18/09 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 18:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 17:46:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16%uFFFD14'N 51%uFFFD44'W (16.2333N 51.7333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 570 miles (917 km) to the ENE (68%uFFFD) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,793m (9,163ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (315%uFFFD) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 49%uFFFD at 94kts (From the NE at ~ 108.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (315%uFFFD) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 962mb (28.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9%uFFFDC (48%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 3,076m (10,092ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17%uFFFDC (63%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 3,078m (10,098ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8%uFFFDC (46%uFFFDF)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 60%uFFFD to 240%uFFFD (ENE to WSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:51:50Z
Even sadder is yall bad mouthing westcasters, Bills only friends and supporters. Shame on you. /lol
Just look.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200903_verify.html#a_topad
What does that mean???
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
I hate to agree to that, but it looks more and more like a possibility. Even that keeping a good eye on Bill is not only the smart thing to do but the responsible thing to do I am a bit more concerned about the remmnants of Anna. I will start looking at wind shear forecast to see if there is any true reason to be worried. I'll post in a bit.
Looks like the eye is becoming more symmetrical and the cloud tops colder around the eye. It will be interesting to see what winds they find in the NE quadrant.
Here's the previous 12 Bill HWRF's and GFDL's:
Also, check out the coupled-model's response to the upwelling behind and to the right of Bill's track in the forecast SST product. This SST wake, while not as impressive as Bertha's last year, will surely be a long-lasting climate imprint. HWRF SST for BILL
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane
Would that indicate a circulation Ike? If so, I think this could slowly (re)develop
and home to the worst football team in the state.
Almost looks like we may see subtropical development... i doubt it would be called Ana but maybe.
remember a couple months ago when you didn't get ANY rain?? be careful what you wish for I guess. We've only had 1 inch in August so far.
Annular hurricanes are rare. Characterized by large diameter eyes, reduced rainbands, many times do not have eyewall replacement cycles and may be difficult to forecast. Since they are so rare, there is not much expierence with them.
Could be, but Kingston,Jamaica has ESE winds and it's SW of Guantanamo Bay. Must be a small low, if there is one.
I'm over 5 inches this month. Had nearly a foot in July.
Help?
No organization whatsoever to support any development at this time (just a wave) but I would keep an eye on it for potential tropical development going into Thursday or Friday in the Gulf if sheer remains low and pressures start to drop.....
It simply means that they have flights that are not specifically ralted to a tropical system. A tasked mission is for gathering specific information to feed into the models, etc.
I apologize, I meant Cat 2. Would that typo be condidered strength casting? lol ;)
I have a gut feeling Ana may surprise us. We need to keep tabs on it. Thanks for the update Dr. M. Thoughts on the remnants of Ana?
Back in a few minutes
who has a vorticity map to show if its increasing?
Thanks!
Viewing: 901 - 951
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 — Blog Index