Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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This summer has been especially hard on those of us who have asthma. The increased rain, which really started last October, continued through the winter and washed out June, has increased mold spores throughout the Cape. With the humid air, the air pollution and high mold counts, someone like me with asthma and mold allergies, (among others), spend most of our time indoors praying that our electric bills won't be too high from running our air conditioners and air purifiers just so we can get a breath.
Also, I've been watching Bill for a few days now and I said to my co-workers yesterday that it really reminds me of Hurricane Bob from 1991. Even the familiar name, "Bill" is just too much like "Bob" for my liking. They said Bob was going to veer off to the East as well, and it didn't. Although only a category 3 Bob did plenty of damage, and right after Bob came the Halloween storm, later referred to as the "Perfect Storm". Anything Bob didn't take down, the Perfect storm did. Don't need to go through that again.
I hope that Bill goes its way and doesn't come here. I know that both storms started in different areas, but as I watch Bill, it just seems eerily familiar and alarm bells aren't going off yet, but are on a heightened state of awareness. I always enjoy when weather-people get their forecasts wrong, I feel as if a higher power enjoys putting us in our place. But in this case, I pray they get it right and the high pressure system will be enough to turn this puppy away.
Let's see what it looks like tomorrow, and cross our fingers.
ANALYSIS OF THE 200 HPA VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES...AS AN
INDICATOR OF MJO ACTIVITY...SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE CLIMATE FORECAST
SYSTEM (CFS) AND THE EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION (EWP) MODELS SHOW
THIS AREA SPREADING AND PERSISTING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
END OF AUGUST...WITH A PEAK IN ACTIVITY AROUND THE 23-26 OF THE
MONTH. BUT...WHILE THE CFS FAVORS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN FOR MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY...THE EWP CONCENTRATES OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC/EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING
PROBLEMS AS OF LATE IN RESOLVING THE INTENSITY/PERSISTENCE OF THE
MJO ACTIVITY...SO WE HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE
TO PUT ON THIS FORECAST. BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT
ANALYSIS... AND PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT
THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 07-10 DAYS.
Assuming it follows the track which the NHC has it on. It will likely follow that general track, but it's still far too early to say exactly what Bermuda and surrounding areas will feel. A small deviation from the track at this time, could equal hundreds of miles difference towards the end of the 5-7 day forecast track.
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM TUE...AS OF 245 PM TUE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IT WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME HURRICANE BILL WILL PASS BY THIS WEEKEND...MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES DUE NORTH SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES DUE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS WILL NOT BE OF MUCH CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...LONG-PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 12Z WAVEWATCH DATA FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY HAS THE SWELL PERIOD BROKEN DOWN LIKE THIS... 14-15 SECONDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT 13-14 SECONDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING 12-13 SECONDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING 11-12 SECONDS SUNDAY 10-11 SECONDS SUNDAY NIGHT 9-10 SECONDS MONDAY 9 SECONDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...REACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY. SAME 12Z WAVEWATCH DATA HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...7-9 FEET SATURDAY...PEAKING AT 8-10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND 6-7 FEET SUNDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
Bill replaced Bob after Bob was retired in 1991.
http://www.news4jax.com/hurricanetracker/index.html
drak...is that the ull s of cuba?
-robert.
You're welcome. You have kids?
It's a small possibility. As Kman noted, the ULL is making the environment in the area diffluent, so it would be hard for the system to organize. However, I do believe the same was true in that general area when the system that would become Claudette was there. Once the vorticity moves more into the gulf it has some potential.
check out bills track compared to 1964 dora
any chance of that type of scenario
Awesome photo. I work on US 19 south of Bell Aire road on the second floor is was an awesome storm
um yeah....
Possibly. But it will certainly pull an Ana. Not convinced this is going up W Coast of FL. The entire Gulf Coast should be on alert regarding this system.
Thank you robert for sharing this impressive spectacle.
really neat fish thing, you can feed them, lol.
Why are you not convinced of that, if it should form?
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS N GULF MOVE S TO ALONG 25N BY
SUN. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W OVER CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS MOVE INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO SE GULF
WED THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE W THROUGH FRI. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS GULF N OF 27N SAT AND SUN.
impressive
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 16:43:06 N Lon : 51:59:52 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.5mb/122.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.3 6.8 6.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : +10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
Simply because this system has defied the models and changed track and intensity while models were wrong about both...
Vorticity (Vort for short), is the tendency of a fluid in motion (water or air) to curve when in forward motion. In an atmosphere, when vorticity goes up, it generally means there is a low pressure system at that level. To visualize vorticity, think of a sheet spread very flat, with a small (but dense) weight in the middle, causing a depression. Now, if you roll BBs across that depression, but not through the middle, they will not emerge in a straight line, but rather curve towards the center of the depression. Thats vorticity in its most basic sense.
"Ana," not Ana. And, yes.
No she would be Ana
Others here have posted that HE will be "Danny" ... because Ana was dissipated.
"Tropical Rainstorm Ana, or what was Ana, has been ripped up and disorganized by the large, rugged islands of the northern Caribbean. However, AccuWeather.com Meteorologists remained concerned that Ana will regenerate or perhaps a new system will develop in the extensive clusters of thunderstorms.
The center of this disturbed area is over Cuba now and the greatest potential for redevelopment will be over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico or even the Florida Straits.
Intense, gusty, drenching thunderstorms will pound Cuba, nearby islands and south Florida over the next couple of days due to Ana's influence. These monster storms will bring the risks of torrential rainfall, flooding and mudslides."
If the NHC still considers it remnants then it will be Ana. If it's formation has more involvement with the upper level low then it could be Danny
86 degrees.
www.weather.bmLink
so it has changed to possibly the central GOM? I thought if it became an issue it would basically be another Claudette? (not that I want Florida to get anything else - that is just what I heard)
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