Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Can someone tell me what type of path Ana is suppose to take since the NHC doesn't have a graphic any longer?
Was going to go to Orlando this weekend to visit relatives visiting but not sure if it would be a wash out.
Thanks
Anyway, Bill better be judicious about where he treads, huh?
Agree completely, this is as I see the present situation.
Second that.
Roberts Rules of Order require I excuse myself.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29
So, there are a couple of scenarios with Bill: (1) Is that it does make the north and northeast turn between 67 and 69 West Longitude, that would mean a miss on New England, however, it would cause a close brush to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island on Sunday night into Monday. (2) Is that it does not make the north and northeast turn until it reaches 72 West, this would cause Bill to cross Cape Cod and likely downeast Maine and into New Brunswick causing hurricane conditions for these areas on Sunday and Sunday night. At this point, I am leaning more towards option 1, however, with the continuing model shifts to the west, I am not ruling out option 2.
tracking more NW lately (yellow line)
Ill have a wave forecast graphic in a couple of minutes.
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 16:52:51 N Lon : 52:11:38 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 937.2mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.8 6.8
I'm absolutely sick of the name 'Ana'
90L should have been Ana in May.
TD1 was forcasted to become Ana.
TD2 dissipated and then regenerated into our current Ana then dissipated then now might regenerate.
thanks pat. Non-ana is getting pretty scary looking. Poll time! Do you think it will form:
1. north of cuba
2. south of cuba
3. in GOM
4. not at all
Well the whole area of weather should continue heading to the NW through the keys and then on the western side of Florida. It then will be picked up by the trough and head towards the panhandle of Florida.
no, i see it too. especially in the water vapor loop. i think it's ana's remains. I'm not sure, however, if it's something to worry about or not. i don't know how to tell if an area has a surface low or not. i think that is when we are to be concerned, when surface lows develop. please correct me if i'm wrong. i'm just a bookkeeper mom.
Just looked at the 18Z GFS. It's similar to what it was showing with Claudette before she formed.
I wouldn't rule it out within the next 24-48 hours.
Thanks Weatherwiz --
Is this suppose to be a fast moving wave? Just trying to figure out plans to head north is a couple of days.
Not really in the mood to drive 3 hrs to Orlando and be stuck in a hotel....
Again, thanks!!
The spinning that is occuring to the SW of the convection is the upper level low pressure, it was over the bahamas a couple of days ago. This is actually causing shear to ex Ana, this upper level low will continue to move westward and the shear will be lessining.
GOM
Goodness gracious, a TransGender Storm...!!!
We do live in Modern Times, haha
LOL! Agreed. Lots of very hot water there.
"Well, Jane, it just goes to show you, it's always something."
RoseAnnaDanna
:)
I believe StormW(?) said those were mid and upper level lows.
lol gotta love the old SNL and Gilda ;)
LMAO ...that was very good!
Ok - so do you think that ULL will be brought down to the surface - not discounting ULL since claudette...
4
so should we be worried about this low forming into something threatening rather than than ana's remnants?
He uses a Tropical Futurescan model. This model predicted the formation of Claudette when the NHC was saying it only had a low chance of development.
The model shows develpment just off the coast of Tampa moving Northwest towards the panhandle.
Hiya. Alas, the poor cow bit the bucket. Tried to move in to put in new vehicle and his butt stuck to the dash.
We've seen that once this week,no reason to think it cant happen.
This Ones a Much Larger circulation though.
But there won't be a trough there until Sunday. Is it going to stall?
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