Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Doomdayer?lol
Everyone is doomed to die the day he is born.lol
@aspectre
lol, this image.
With this rapid intensifying, if Bill heads for Category 5 today, are the steering currents more or less favorable for a turn back west and a direct hit (yikes!)?
More favorable for a turn West.
Does not look good at all.
What else is more sustainable than renewable ressources? Even if its long term (because first off they need to invest to build the manufacturing devices). When the initial infrastructure (production facilities and energy grid) is established and given the growth in these sectors with expotentional growth - invest pay out.
Agree that costs will decrease which should lead to lower prices for energy users but wind and sun renew ables are limited in their overall production just by their very nature. They will not replace other energy sources but are a worthwhile supplements in reducing pollution from combustible resources. The other current alternative is nuclear, both fission and fusion(future). Fission has its own waste disposal problems but does not produce pollution during generation other than “thermal” pollution.
And this will not be the case for combustion technologies, because of peak oil and because of tuffer regulations in the aspects of dangerous climate change.
About the impacts, it is assumed that we got currently a warming around 2.4C which is masked due to aerosols - which leads to current 0.8C.
So from this point it will just get worse and much depend on more sustainable and renewable technologies.
This is where you lost me. Dr. Masters' current blog entry is in regard to pollution and not purported global warming.
We can all agree on clean water and air. It's just how we achieve that without grossly economically disadvantaging some especially the impoverished.
It appears Bill is either a CAT4 or nearly so. Maritime interests are currently the only being affected adversely. Hopefully, no land masses will be impacted by Bill.
The remnants of Ana continue to bring rain and a little wind to my neighborhood.
Hope everyone is having a good morning.
What part of the Florida Keys? Might be down that way today.
I see the Cam Fine. Looks like you are at Mallory Square. Those clouds are about the only rain we might get here today in Key West.
Hi,
i don't understand what you mean that renewables are "Limited"?
Solar or wind each alone has the cababilities to feed the world energy demands.
For example desertec.
Pollution leads to a rise in temperatures. For example Co-2 from combustion processes which is soaked up to 50% from the worlds ocean - which in return is responsible for ocean acidification.
Im out, see you later.
THE MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES AT 14 KT. BILL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N60W AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THESE FEATURES ARE CURRENTLY CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST BILL TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE EARLIEST TURN AND THE NOGAPS/UKMET SHOWING THE LATEST TURN. AFTER THAT...A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 72 HR...WITH
THE NOGAPS ON ONE SIDE BRINGING BILL NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ON THE OTHER SIDE CALLING FOR A SHARP TURN OUT TO SEA.
I don't think you have a clue what you're talking about! Bill is not going West, nor will it. There are to many factors that are/will be pulling it North. How do you get off saying its going West, West, West??
I feel like I am in the movie groundhog day with you two. Didn't this get settled yesterday?
Bill should exit, stage right, in about 5 days and it looks like it's back to quiet times in the Atlantic after Bill leaves.
We're going to see some rough surf along the east coast of Florida, I think.
The multi-million dollar question is, how much?Link
I checked out the cam and saw it was on some sort of countdown - "standby we're preparing to go live". Also, it wanted me to login. Is that a requirement to watch your cam?
I believe whatever is left of Ana is about to bring me some rain. Its getting dark outside and I can hear some distand thunder.
What about the waves coming off Africa?
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
Not as stupid as that rude comment by you.
LOL
cnn and fox news channels are watching it too...
Really...based on what?
From Key West........".SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SERVICE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DRIER THAN FORECAST
SEEMINGLY DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE WAVE."
Now...go look in the mirror.
There is the shift west.Tomorrow another one and the eastcoast will be in the cone.
The truth. You can't handle the truth!
really ike, look at the vorticity, its there and in the gulf...
Reeeeeeeeeeeee-ported!
While she looks like nothing, the remains of Ana will still need to be watched through tomorrow. Since some mid-level circulation, at the 850 level, and so, while unlikely, still need to watch the area.
But yes, the tropics look to slow down by the end of Monday, when Bill is weakening and approaching Canada.
TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL WAVE...SUCH AS BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS IN AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
SSTs 30-31 in the Gulf according to this link.
Link
Shear low according to this one.
Link
Still it's got a less than 30% probability of developing.
Bill is going al the way West.
Like it has the past 5 days.
Morning IKE
I expect some rain today. but you could not tell it by looking at the long range radar out of here (Key West) Not sure what they are seeing left from Anna, Because WV and radar don't support Anna moving over us. It seams there is nothing left to come over us.
Read it and weep....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Yep, that Upper Level Low helped to absorb a lot of the energy that was left with Ana... not much left.
Thank God...after all these months...Ah-nah is g o n e.
What did the kool-aid taste like? Was it good?
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