Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What did the kool-aid taste like? Was it good?
I am not pro development, not even to TD status. The statement above is great news!!!
Yellow circle will probably be gone on the next TWO. Yesterday I thought it might pull a Claudette....wrong.
I wouldn't exactly say quiet, but diminished activity. GFS wants to develop near cape verde, CMC middle atlantic and NOGAPS southern carribean. I would discount CMC and NOGAPS for now but off cape verde is definitely possible.
Your comment was uncalled for. If you disagree with Ike, then just say you disagree. I usually am a lurker, but I have learned alot from people like Ike, StormW, Tampa, just to name a few. I come here for information, and knowledge. This blog is a place to share opinions, and if your differs from someone else's just state that, and leave the name calling out of it. Thank You, and back to lurker mode.
On your last one you tried to use a .html file as an image, and that will not work. Images need to be .gif or .png. You should right click on the image you want to post, select properties and copy the address, but it needs to end in .gif or .png, not .html.
Huzzah! Can people just state that this is "their opinion" or back it up with links, and then we can avoid all the ad hominem.
Actually, that wave behind Bill is forecasted in the surf models to bring some to Puerto Rico by Sunday. I wouldn't be so quick as to dismiss it...
Thanks Islander, we did get by lucky...
Waiting for those seas to come up on PR.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/0919Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
55 DEG 4 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2695 M
D. 72 KT
E. 235 DEG 11 NM
F. 302 DEG 85 KT
G. 222 DEG 14 NM
H. 953 MB
I. 10 C/2879 M
J. 18 C/3261 M
K. 5 C/NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX03A BILL3 OB 07 AL032009
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 129 KTS NE QUAD 0925Z
MAX FL TEMP 19C 160/13NM FROM FL CNTR
Don't know what is going on and could someone please explain but looks like according to this his eye is open to the sw.
I would want to see additional model support, but I also said "for now".
ECMWF has a wave...maybe a TD going in the same direction as Bill...Link
Nothing behind it on the South America view..Link
Bill West hits the East.
They have found some winds and one eye.
Good job hunters,keep up the good work.
953mb pressure found, highest winds I saw were 101mph surface.
The remains of Ana are done for and look to continue to be just a batch of clouds/showers.
The eastern Atlantic near the African coast looks interesting, and from that large area of disturbed weather, the next tropical cyclone will probably evolve.
Probably some shear.
kinda gives one the chills....burrrr
Haven't checked the models, looks like a weak wave for cyclone development though. And Bill should have left a trail of colder SST's. It's all good, though, if those wave forecasts hold.
More importantly, the wave coming off Africa.
Must be the one the ECMWF has as a TD like system. It's coming off so far north....troughs in the eastern USA expected again next week...probably follows in Bill's path...
I'm thinking shear and a eyewall repacement cycle. You can tell something is going on by looking at the satellite.
And a kick on the butt! Littering sucks... period.
LOL...that always helps....change that avatar!j/k........
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