Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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WHXX01 KWBC 191225
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1225 UTC WED AUG 19 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090819 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090819 1200 090820 0000 090820 1200 090821 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 55.6W 20.0N 58.7W 21.5N 61.7W 22.8N 64.1W
BAMD 18.3N 55.6W 19.8N 58.2W 21.4N 60.8W 23.4N 63.3W
BAMM 18.3N 55.6W 19.8N 58.4W 21.1N 61.0W 22.7N 63.3W
LBAR 18.3N 55.6W 19.8N 58.1W 21.6N 61.0W 23.2N 63.8W
SHIP 115KTS 119KTS 121KTS 123KTS
DSHP 115KTS 119KTS 121KTS 123KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090821 1200 090822 1200 090823 1200 090824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 66.3W 28.4N 68.5W 34.8N 65.1W 42.2N 54.2W
BAMD 25.5N 65.4W 30.7N 67.9W 36.3N 65.7W 43.1N 55.8W
BAMM 24.5N 65.3W 29.4N 67.6W 35.5N 64.7W 42.5N 54.4W
LBAR 25.1N 66.5W 30.7N 69.9W 38.4N 65.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 120KTS 113KTS 102KTS 75KTS
DSHP 120KTS 113KTS 102KTS 75KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 55.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 52.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 50.3W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 952MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 150NM
$$
NNNN
It's a "Hidden Mandarin fractal". I watched Nova last night; it was about fractals. Very interesting. I was wanting to ask if anyone (StormW?) has heard of any applications using fractals to predict the weather. Here's another one "A magnification of the phoenix set" :
thanks
i was not implying that i want bill to hit SFLA. far from that, just asking a question, you see i own a construction company and it takes me 10 days to prepare for a storm, I hope bill stays out to see, so we are all safe.
He will turn someday.
Closest guess would be on friday like i am saying for 2 days now.
Where? link :)
was that convergence and divergence there off Sfl earlier?
Neither does a horse in a box.
Yea I saw that. Wow, 140 MPH.
Agreed. But 20W 60N is a nice mark to bear in mind, for all the track debates and for NHC verification.
I dont wish Bill to be going west,
i just say the turn would be later.
Unfortunately the turn will be later.
Lets hope not to late.
Found the answer to my earlier question
Let me preface this with I know this is NOT Andrew and is a totally different sitution. Okay then, just wanted to mention that Andrew clipped the very teen tiny corner of the Herbert box back in 1992. Not wishcasting, not comparing Bill to Andrew, I just find stuff like that interesting. I also believe Bill will make his turn and I am not worrying about Florida, but until my area is XTRAPed out, I will keep watching. Once that line goes North of me, I plan on watching some very LARGE waves rolling into the Cocoa Beach Pier this weekend. They do have webcams if anyone else wants to watch.
Thank you. I appreciate this since i am new and interested in Meteorology (as a hobby for now). One question though...What does GOM stand for?
Morning all - thanks for the "wake-up" Mikatnight! lol
Looks like the wave formerly known as Ana has dissapated. Anybody know something I don't?
gulf of mexico
Ok I give up, what is the Herbert box?
:)
NEWS RELEASE
Wednesday, August 19, 2009 – 5:00 a.m.
*** BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ***
At 4:00 a.m. the centre of Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 18.0 degrees north and longitude 54.9 degrees west or about 740 kilometres east of the Leeward Islands.
Hurricane Bill is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 km/h. a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, the core of Bill will be passing well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late today and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 215 km/h, with higher gusts. Bill is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane Bill is NOT a threat to Jamaica.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
rar
I think it's finally over.
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