Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway
Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.
Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.
Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.
First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.
The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.
Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.
Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.
How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.
Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.
In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks! I am glad you like them. I'd be glad to tell you how I make them (if you want to know)
You too!!!!!!!
Dau goes up to LSU tomorrow starting her College Life.
So keep the faith.
Semper Fi pat! :)
This is pretty much what NHC forecasters have been describing since abt Monday: one smaller trough that will pull it N of the islands, then the second, larger trough this weekend to kick it up (and hopefully out without any direct effect on land). The current trough does look capable of pulling Bill N of 20. Then it's a matter of timing.....
1. Bermudians are not going to evacuate. For the vast majority of them there is no place to evacuate to.
2. A lot of Bermudian houses are built to withstand storms as powerful as Bill is likely to be if he passes over them.
I think Bermuda will survive a hit from Hurricane Bill. It may not be pretty, but they've done it before, perhaps for longer than any other European settlement in the ATL basin....
I'll take a stab at that, short answer Yes but rarely. Long answer. If a storm is big enough and powerful enough then it's outflow can create it's own little ridge against a weak low pressure trof. Does not happen often I think hurricane Allen was the last big hurricane to do it. If I am wrong someone please correct me.
Don't talk nonsense! Homes in Bermuda are made of stone/concrete block and Bill will do very little structural damage. Only if you're out in a boat or swimming should you be concerned. Just get your shutters up and have a party!
Yes he can,yes he can
I don't like your projected path because that puts me in the path..LOL.
lol! Sorry, my fault. Was trying to quote Patrap and missed by a mile!
I don't think it is much to worry about right now but the GOM is very warm and just needs to be watched.
This is true. A good way is to visualize it in 3D. Think of the hurricane as a marble spinning on the surface of the earth. The ridge of high pressure is just what it sounds like: an area of elevation which will cause the hurricane to "roll downhill" along its periphery. A low pressure trough acts kind of like a depression in this surface, and the "ball" merely follows gravity downhill towards its center.
While this is a bit of an oversimplification, it is a good way to visualize how the storm behaves.
We will just have to wait and see. I still think that the NHC has a good handle on the storm and for the most part has been following the forecast track philosophy if nothing else.
??Dude.....
That's the quote I was supposed to have. Yeesh!
Wow awesome sarcasm...can be a useful tool...if used properly...and as the Marine formerly known as Cpl Ryan...I would out of deep rooted pride and principle, the likes of which you will never be able to comprehend...stand up for pat...but brotherhood aside...he is a good person and a cool cat. I dont know what you did to piss each other off...but you cannot win. You seem to be a smart person...but not smart enough to argue with some of these old timers...and you will just end up bruised and confused, and on everyone who matters ignore lists...I like you man...choose your battle wisely and if not...always leave an avenue to save face...jmho
Thanks Man! I guess I get those confused-> by no means a weather expert.
Last night's Canadian GEM regional run forecast gradually dropping sfc pressures in the Gomex and a weak low up near the panhandle by Friday eve. It will be interesting to see if this tendency continues on this morning's run...
Link
That's why I've never had an ignore list...but on the other hand, his act is growing a bit stale.
Link
I go once per year...I sometimes take the 7 day on the Conquest and hit Jamaica and Cozumel as well...but the Caymans...wow, to sum it up in one word...heaven.
They were looking way to much to the north.
They assumed Bill had turned North but good old Billy West is way more west.
The hunters also have found an eye,a wind and an airplane.Now returning to the lab to find out who s eye it is and who s wind it is.The airplane puzzle is solved,they were on it.It was there own airplane.Keep up the good work hunters.
Thats a great way of putting it. I guess I should just trust the NHC and all other experts. I just have 2 small kids and we live 2 blocks from the oceanfront. Isabel was our last Cane and we did not prepare like we should have. Actually a little thanks to our local weathermen down playing the entire event. Thanks for all of the input.
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