Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next
The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.
Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good morning to you and thank you for the update on Bermuda and the forcast for Bill.
Now you can have a good weekend!
Hello everyone, Happy Saturday to you all!
Gams
Link
I sure hope you don't end up eating those words...
North... South... same same... Carols :)
I must be getting old and senile...I thought I remembered him as a responsible blogger...
Getting a little dark and stormy down here now.
" it was a dark and stormy night, etc"
I don't see any tracks shirting west... why are people saying New England?
Morning Pottery... looking at the weather..and yours sucks..
Well, then I'm just as old and senile because that was my first thought too. Oh well.....now we know.
Morning E1.
Link
NHC still hasn't classified 92E as 11E. I wonder if they ever will. They probably won't then the CPHC will issue it. LOL
Great link. Thanks.
I think it's Sebastianinlet you're thinking about. Anyway, this is interesting, but I'm not spending my Saturday watching Bill.
Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
So heads up for the northeast, still.
The wave at 30-40 does have a spotter on it, but looks like it is restricted to the usual ITCZ stuff at present. Loop
Once again I love the power vested in myself to press the iggy... After 3 or 4 years I have never used it to much but found it very convenient this year...
Any ideas on why the NHC has a floater over the wave at 35w and labeled "Invest"? Doesn't seem like it is organized enough to me to be an invest.. and they haven't given it a number.. hmmm.
Your own illustration has a line going right through New Hampshire.
Could be.
Question. Is it within the norm for them to assign a floater to something that's not even showing circulation yet? I was wondering if it's because this wave has a good potential to develop or maybe because there isn't anything more significant to track?
True.. its a well known and talked about model on this page... "Xtrp"
shearmap
CATLRainbow
The current image shows more than that too.
But all is well. I have sent all the other occupants of this house out to the malls today.
Let it rain.......
"Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa".
Whoo Hoo we get one week off yeahh...
Don't make me come down there!
hey Hunker, that really isn't typical though, if I recall correctly. I just thought it was strange that NHC had it labeled "Invest" on their site...
Obviously he misspoke.
heheheheh
He skipped over the GOM
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