Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next
The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.
Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Amen to that!
Yeah....in fact, I will probably make special graphics if that occurs (i.e. Storm Alert type things, with a red banner) to make them more catchy. Glad you like them. I see an interesting feature at about 43 W. Is that what is forecast to move into the Bahamas and develop by some of the models? Should be a very interesting week ahead, to say the least, if the models verify.
There is a real question about how much Maine and the rest of the New England coast will get hit, not if. Turning NNE sometime Sunday is not very helpful, but probably all they've got.
From the forecast:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
This is the current wind map projection which may help.
NHC Wind Map
Based on the Wind Map, Maine is in for some weather, but not the brunt of the storm.
In satellite imagery, it almost appears that the front has become a large band attached to Hurricane Bill.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
Trees & wires down all over the place 46 reports, including 2inces of rain in 20 mins in EAST GREENBUSH & some flash flooding..
This convection has fired in the last hour.
Sunday Night
Clear with near record lows near 63. Northeast winds to 5 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
752 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0240 PM TSTM WND DMG MECHANICSVILLE 38.43N 76.72W
08/21/2009 ST. MARYS MD PUBLIC
CHIMNEY TORN OFF ROOF... HOLE IN SIDE OF HOUSE... 5
TREES DOWN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX0900440
$$
SBK
Where are you, weathercrazy?
I've got relatives in Dennisport and Nantucket, friends in Woods Hole, Brewster and more.
Because I want to make sure they are not annoying anybody, and I am still pretty young.
The last time we had a front of this magnitude move through SE LA at this time in August was in 2004.
talk with me on IM
Judging by the # of trees & wires down everywhere reports~ may have alot without power.
This year has been similar to 2004 with the fronts. Though, in 2004, the Baton Rouge area had nearly a week of record lows from August 12 to like the 19th. That was incredible.
It's going to be real cold in Baton Rouge on November 7th when them Tigers get all wet!
I just got back from the hospital, I will consider it when I have rested up a bit.
Odd thing is, those damage reports are from the front and not Bill.
These photos show what I call the 'ant hill' phenomena. I noticed this last year: When tropical a storm/hurricane is near the continent radar throughout most of US shows light precipitation forming in widely scattered locations resembling ant hills locations. Are centers radar stations? What causes this?
Going to Rockaway beach to look at surf.Link
hospital????
What has me jacked up is what happened a few months later...
Thankfully, yeah, things are looking much better than they were this time last night. One of my aunts went to the hospital to get over 100 pounds of fluid off her. Fortunately, she has lost nearly all of it at this point, but she passed out last night while in the bathroom, and exhibited stroke-like symptoms. The doctors do not think she had a stroke or seizure, though, and she is much better tonight.
That is a bold prediction, Taz!
Most Atlantic seasons end in October during El Nino years, even during years that are active while experiencing El Nino conditions (i.e. 2004).
if you hold your cursor over the wind speed & in the you do get a realistic image of whats going to happen to cape cod
Here is what I could find on local SSTs.
Viewing: 551 - 601
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