Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That's a heck of a cluster of thunderstorms.
Been there before. Sometimes you gotta follow your gut before the officials say anything. Just keep an eye on it. Not that I have to tell y'all that. What kinda gives me an uneasy feeling is that to me some of the models don't move this very much, if at all for a while. Don't know maybe I'm wrong. Just hate when these sit and spin.
Thanks! I just calls 'em as I sees 'em
Automated answer: my Florida wishcast; the Gators go 0 & 12, the ukmet says its a possibility and the GFL ... well its the GFL
Holy Guacamole !!!!
I think thats a different system. The one the ECMWF has is still in the central atlantic at 240 hours. GFS has a similar system that goes north of Puerto Rico, at least thats what I see.
ECMWF seems slower with it. Shows it SW of the Cape Verde's on Friday. That would be about where the latest GFS shows it.
GFS shows zonal flow in 240 hours...10 days...no troughs...watch out further west in the Atlantic basin!.....
I'm interested in hearing your reasoning about this potential wave and potential track. Thanks
Okay, well if TWC says it, I guess everyone in FL can stop worrying...LOL
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL
STORM FOR THE WEEKEND. 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS USING HPC/TPC COORDINATED
POSITIONING (ACTUALLY ENDS UP AMAZINGLY CLOSE TO THOSE POSITIONS
WHICH WERE DERIVED COMPLETELY WITHOUT BENEFIT OF THE MODEL AT 16Z -
ITS ACTUALLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z CMC/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHIFTED TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY IN SOME DEFERENCE TO THE GFS/GEFS.
THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY TO THE FORECAST IS IMPACT OF THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY DRIFTING
SW INTO LOUISIANA...AND THEN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND HEAD
BACK EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 12Z ECMWF NO LONGER HAS ISSUE THAT
00Z ECMWF HAD WITH MAKING THIS UPPER LOW THE DOMINATE SYSTEM...AND
ESSENTIALLY ABSORBING THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE COASTAL LOW
WHILE MAINTAINING THE DISCREET 7H/5H VORT OFFSHORE. THE 12Z
ECMWF...LIKE THE 12Z CMC NOW JUST HAVE THIS CUTOFF LOW HELP STEER
THE COASTAL LOW TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT ULTIMATELY ABSORB IT INTO
THE STRONGER COASTAL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LIKELY TO FAR EAST WITH ITS
SYSTEM AS IT HISTORICALLY UNDERESTIMATES THE WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
(ALLOWING IT TO RE-CURVE TOO FAR EAST AND TOO QUICKLY).
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH 850 WARM FRONT LIFTING N - WENT WITH
SLOWER CMC/GFS TIMING AS IT IS MOST CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING). THEN LIKELY POPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL
LOW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE LOW PASSES.
He has some personality. Nothing wrong with that. Besides he wasn't that far off with the Bill.
Someone mentioned a Hanna look a like situation ... Floodman I think, now that one really caught us with our pants down last year!
from Mark Kelly: http://twitter.com/ShuttleCDRKelly
ShuttleCDRKelly
about 5 hours ago from Tweetie
In meeting for new Orion spacecraft. Picture from the road last week. Pulled over in NM for speeding. http://yfrog.com/6785352034j
NASA ORION Capsule pulled over for speeding!
[edit] I did put in "image" but it won't stay hotlinked.
There is NO soon to be Danny.
There is ONLY 92L.
Until the NHC says Danny has been born, there is NO Danny!
Comprende?
ok you spelled seriously wrong
Let's not forget that it was him and his companions at Inaccuweather that got the idiot senator from PA to submit that bill that would have done away with NWS and left forecasting to private companies like Inaccuweather.
; )
I am not familiar with any of that. All I can say is I don't dislike the guy.
I am thinking you might be correct. This system you are talking about could mature during a period of a negative NAO and lower trade winds over the tropical Atlantic.
Now that's gosh darn funny right there
Surface trough of low pressure, gale force winds, but no closed circulation.
it is developing new convection now that it is off shore, it has an anticlone over it, proving low shear, it has almost no SAL to hinder its development, it has a decent 850mb vorticity, it has some divergence and convergence
The only thing im not sure of is the SST in the area
anyone got a map for those?
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