Tropical Storm Danny likely to be named today
First-light satellite images of the tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands show that the system has developed an organized surface circulation, and 92L will likely be named Tropical Storm Danny later today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass confirms the presence of a surface circulation, and the satellite saw top winds of 50 mph in a cluster of thunderstorms well east of the center. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots. The upper-level low 92L is moving underneath has plenty of dry air in it, and the upper low is injecting this dry air into 92L's west side, keeping and heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on that side. The Hurricane Hunters are in 92L, and have found surface winds up to 57 mph so far this morning. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image from 8:15 am EDT 8/26/09 showing dry air associated with an upper-level low pressure system to the west of 92L's center of circulation. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that 92L will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models have come into better agreement keeping 92L offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As 92L passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a second landfall likely Saturday night or Sunday morning somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, 92L is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. It currently appears that 92L will not bring tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas or to Florida.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The models have been inconsistently predicting formation of several tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa over the next week, and I am going to stop mentioning these forecasts until we get two models predicting the same thing, several model runs in a row.
I'll have an update later today.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The atmospheric dynamics per the NHC and Quiksat Satellite show that TS Danny has a low level closed circulation, along with winds of 45MPH in the NE quadrant. I believe the Florida Tropical research group also agreed that the make-up of the storm is tropical in nature. The upper level low that's cutting off the convection in the NW quadrant is forecasted to move away and allow for intensification. Look at the Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the NHC to get a better view of the TS and the pesky upper level trough.
Good stuff Storm! I too think the models should go a little more left now that they have a COC to work with.
Since TS Danny could impact people in the next 5 days, it is by far the focus right now. The CV wave might get some attention in a few days, once Danny moves out. Keep in mind anything by the Cape Verde Islands is easily a week away, if not more.
and who knows =P
maybe the f storms max out at 40mph and goes to sea lol
Link
12Z GFS is bringing that system to the Carib in 120HR or so... or by Monday.
LOL what is with you and F-storms
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.4N 34.7W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2009 12.4N 34.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2009 13.4N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2009 13.9N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2009 14.4N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2009 15.5N 45.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2009 16.2N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2009 16.1N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
No,92 became Danny,93 was in the SW Carr.
Tropical Update
In a way you kind of answer your own question hehe... as you stated... if you look at Tampa's and StormW's page you'll get the most reliable sites most of us use to track these systems. So you can book mark those links they have and check them out any time.
In regards the most reliable model... you'll typically follow the ECMWF as it has been doing well for a long time.
Couldn't agree with you more JLPR. Are there any ridges/high pressure building to steer things westwards or is everything for the time being expected WNW?
For now it sure looks it will have a the Azores High along with the Bermuda high to push this one through the CATL on a general W to WNW direction for the time being. (subject to change).
Oh man....can't we just skip f and go onto g...my life would be so much easier....
lol... huh!!!
does it look like a weak llc? =P
thank you for the answer im a disaster at steering layers lol
Looks like it continues on to the west, or just slightly north of west.
No recurving with that wave through 180 hours.
Amy,since when do you try to make your life easier,I thought you liked the more difficult road
point taken...I'm off my game today...thanks for setting me straight...
Indeed... also it seems the negative NAO might be starting to kick in as there's more ridging going on... but of course we'll really see if that's the trend as we approach those days.
Hehe...
Agree. I was just fixing to state what you just said. After this coming trough the pattern appears to change. Could be trouble for the Caribbean and GOm if that verifies.
yes I am thinking we will have 94L later today
or sometime tomorrow
Available from South Florida Water Management Dirict, whose regulations extend into the glades.
FWH
Link?
To me, there's way too many charts on TS's blog.
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