Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Danny still weak

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 19:32 GMT le 28 août 2009

Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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601. IKE 01:23 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting tornadofan: Wow - didn't know it was that windy. More impressive than OBX will get from Danny. LOL...exactly. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

602. homelesswanderer 01:26 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting prtr4192: C:\Users\Jeff\Pictures\at196406.gif in his blog dr masters talked about whatever you want to call 94l being pulled to the northwest then possibly being pushed back west (hope this picture shows ) would this be the same type of track ?? i am talking about dora 1964 That could very well be what he meant. Especially if the high is not very strong and another trough erodes it after its westward push. Which is a distinct possibility this year. Good call. Looks closer to what I gather he was saying than the other tracks posted. Even by me. Lol. But of course its still wait and see. :) Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

603. tornadofan 01:25 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: LOL...exactly. Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore. (meaning a mini-surge) Member Since: 5 avril 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

604. IKE 01:26 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting tornadofan: Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore. I'm not sure. I'm 70 miles east of Pensacola. Maybe a Pensacola blogger is on here still and can answer that for you. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

605. VARob 01:27 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting kanc2001: look at the ULL in GA!! that thing looks like a "landcane" It looks like it would eat Danny boy I think Danny is feeling the effects of the ULL in Ga. thus the NE movement but I think the ull will pass him by and he will continue on the nw movement after that happens. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

606. Nolehead 01:27 GMT le 29 août 2009
603. tornadofan 1:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009 Quoting IKE: LOL...exactly. Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore. i don't believe so...no surf for sure so no erosion that way and tha rain was more to the north of town... Member Since: 3 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

607. Tazmanian 01:27 GMT le 29 août 2009
000 WHXX01 KMIA 290108 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0108 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (CP022009) 20090829 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 090829 0000 090829 1200 090830 0000 090830 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 14.9N 177.5W 15.2N 179.1W 15.7N 178.9E 16.2N 176.8E BAMD 14.9N 177.5W 15.4N 178.7W 16.0N 179.9W 16.6N 178.8E BAMM 14.9N 177.5W 15.3N 178.8W 15.8N 179.7E 16.3N 178.2E ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 090831 0000 090901 0000 090902 0000 090903 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.8N 174.8E 17.8N 171.6E 18.6N 169.7E 19.4N 169.0E BAMD 17.0N 177.7E 17.3N 176.1E 17.6N 175.3E 19.4N 174.6E BAMM 16.6N 176.6E 17.2N 174.2E 17.7N 172.9E 19.1N 172.0E ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 177.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 176.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 7KT LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 174.5W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ 95C is now TD 2C Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

608. antonio28 01:27 GMT le 29 août 2009
94L RIP thats the theme tonight, LOL Dpass and Sat images doesn't show that. Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799

609. tornadofan 01:29 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting Nolehead: 603. tornadofan 1:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2009 Quoting IKE: LOL...exactly. Any word - did that event yesterday flood the road to Ft. Pickens? Doesn't take too much to do that anymore. i don't believe so...no surf for sure so no erosion that way and tha rain was more to the north of town... Thanks. I did read that the original 90L flooded it. Member Since: 5 avril 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

610. homelesswanderer 01:31 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting kanc2001: look at the ULL in GA!! that thing looks like a "landcane"* It looks like it would eat Danny boy* That would be a thingamabobbercane? In Dr. M. speak. Lol Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

611. Magicchaos 01:32 GMT le 29 août 2009
The CPHC was saying "Tropical development unlikely" for the last few days until today, and look at it now. It developed into a TD. Member Since: 3 avril 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382

612. Skyepony (Mod) 01:33 GMT le 29 août 2009
Danny is having his COC shoved back under his convection thanks to the trough coming off FL. This should initially strengthen him, til the trough interacts. Then expecting some baroclonic strengthening..which also eventually forces him to go extratropical, probably late tomorrow. I expect to see him a much stronger storm with a lower pressure after he goes extra tropical & gets over the gulf stream then what he is now. CMC makes a pretty good picture other than..maybe not quite that low of pressure. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29949

613. edmac 01:33 GMT le 29 août 2009
Conditions are favorable for 94l, and will be for the next few days, as Dr. Master says. How are conditions forecasted to be next week for 94l, assuming 94l tracks north, and then west. Anyone heard anything. Member Since: 27 février 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31

614. LightningCharmer 01:34 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting K8eCane: oh my gosh this is a WEATHER BLOG not a mental health center Hmmm, A.D.D. -> Atmospheric Denial Disorder H.A.C. -> Hurricance Anxiety Complex T.W.C.D.D -> Tropical Wave Cyclogenesis Denial Disorder D.X.M.S. -> Delusional Extrapolation Model Syndrome M.C.P.P -> Multiple Cylone Panic Psychosis etc., etc., etc... Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

615. tornadofan 01:35 GMT le 29 août 2009
Thingamabobbercane - from the Washington Post Member Since: 5 avril 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

616. WPBHurricane05 01:37 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting tornadofan: Thingamabobbercane - from the Washington Post Hehe: That seems to leave only one other possibility, namely a "Thingamabobbercane," a term coined by Weather Underground blogger Jeff Masters. Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8004

617. IKE 01:37 GMT le 29 août 2009
Discovery launch set to go at 11:59 pm EDST tonight. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

618. stormpetrol 01:38 GMT le 29 août 2009
If you look at this same quikscat pass its another rotation to the ENE of 94L can't say its totally closed but if you look at 12N/26W on the wide Tropical Atlantic Rainbow loop you can see the rotation in the same area as reflexed on the quikscat, even though its a few hours old. Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6491

619. LightningCharmer 01:40 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: Discovery launch set to go at 11:59 pm EDST tonight. Watching thunderstorms again just like on the first try. Hoping for clear skies in south Florida so we can have a peak down our way. NASA TV Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

620. kmanislander 01:41 GMT le 29 août 2009
It looks like status quo for 94L for at least 12 to 24 hours. Nothing more to watch for tonight so will sign off until tomorrow. Easterly shear is still a problem pushing the convection to the West of the low and also causing the fast motion to the W. Until these two factors ease off 94L will not likely make it to TD status. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

621. victoria780 01:43 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting edmac: Conditions are favorable for 94l, and will be for the next few days, as Dr. Master says. How are conditions forecasted to be next week for 94l, assuming 94l tracks north, and then west. Anyone heard anything. Dont understand 94l been moving quickly west or s. of due west,then nogaps comes along then tracks it northwest..I think I can predict better then this computer model.. Member Since: 20 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

622. WPBHurricane05 01:43 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting LightningCharmer: Watching thunderstorms again just like on the first try. Hoping for clear skies in south Florida so we can have a peak down our way. Yup. I'm hoping these clouds continue moving NE. Looks like it will be close. Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8004

624. kmanislander 01:44 GMT le 29 août 2009
Increasing shear ahead for 94L This reinforces my belief that it will not make TD before 50W Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

625. homelesswanderer 01:44 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting tornadofan: Thingamabobbercane - from the Washington Post Lol. Thanks. I couldn't remember where I heard that. Just kinda sticks in your head. :) Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

627. tornadofan 01:47 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting LightningCharmer: Watching thunderstorms again just like on the first try. Hoping for clear skies in south Florida so we can have a peak down our way. NASA TV Are a bunch of clouds around their spot. It better disipate fast to be able to see it. Member Since: 5 avril 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

628. Motttt 01:48 GMT le 29 août 2009
No Lighting Storms at the launch Member Since: 10 septembre 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213

629. IKE 01:48 GMT le 29 août 2009
Navy hasn't updated an image of 94L since 1915UTC(nearly 7 hours ago). SSD hasn't updated an image of 94L since 2345UTC(over an hour ago). WTH? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

630. tbonehfx 01:49 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting tornadofan: Looks like a late fall/winter satellite shot if you live in New England Whad'did I say this morning? LOL! Member Since: 8 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 37

631. tornadofan 01:50 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: Navy hasn't updated an image of 94L since 1915UTC. SSD hasn't updated an image of 94L since 2345UTC(over an hour). WTH? RIP? (Running for shelter to avoid stones from 94L-lovers...) Member Since: 5 avril 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

632. kmanislander 01:50 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: Navy hasn't updated an image of 94L since 1915UTC. SSD hasn't updated an image of 94L since 2345UTC(over an hour). WTH? I noticed that. Very odd. Can't imagine they are dropping it Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

633. IKE 01:51 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting tornadofan: RIP? (Running for shelter to avoid stones from 94L-lovers...) I don't know of another reason? Quoting kmanislander: I noticed that. Very odd. Can't imagine they are dropping it I agree, since the NHC is still calling for some development(30-50% chance). Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

634. kmanislander 01:52 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: I don't know of another reason? I agree, since the NHC is still calling for some development(30-50% chance). And the best quikscat image since it left the W coast of Africa. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

635. IKE 01:54 GMT le 29 août 2009
TWC just did their tropical update and didn't even mention 94L. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

636. kmanislander 01:55 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: TWC just did their tropical update and didn't even mention 94L. Guaranteed to develop ! Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

637. BenBIogger 01:56 GMT le 29 août 2009
Member Since: 19 Mars 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

638. IKE 01:56 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting kmanislander: And the best quikscat image since it left the W coast of Africa. I don't get it. I'm puzzled. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

639. LightningCharmer 01:56 GMT le 29 août 2009
NASA TV is reporting rapid dissipation of thunderstorms in the launch area. Appears to be more favorable on this try. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

640. tornadofan 01:56 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: TWC just did their tropical update and didn't even mention 94L. Really? I retract my RIP. Member Since: 5 avril 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

641. OnTheFlats 01:56 GMT le 29 août 2009
002:06:02 Quoting tornadofan: Are a bunch of clouds around their spot. It better disipate fast to be able to see it. Yeah we're screwed here in So. Fla. for this one. All the the other scrubbed attempts had perfectly clear skies and tonight is drizzly and cloudy, slim chance of seeing it. It may not even launch, we'll see in 2:03. Member Since: 29 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

642. kmanislander 01:56 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting IKE: I don't get it. I'm puzzled. SSD just updated to 1:15 Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

643. weatherwatcher12 01:57 GMT le 29 août 2009
NASA launch update: Countdown Update Fri, 28 Aug 2009 08:46:10 PM EST Launch managers are still discussing an ice formation detected earlier in the area of the liquid hydrogen T-0 umbilical. It is similar in size and shape to those spotted on previous launch attempts. Its size has been determined not to be a debris hazard. The weather is favorable, overall. We're currently "green" on all launch weather constraints, although pop-up showers within 20 nautical miles could pose a concern for return-to-launch-site abort rules. The Closeout Crew is ready to begin closing space shuttle Discovery's hatch Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

644. markymark1973 01:57 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting kmanislander: It looks like status quo for 94L for at least 12 to 24 hours. Nothing more to watch for tonight so will sign off until tomorrow. Easterly shear is still a problem pushing the convection to the West of the low and also causing the fast motion to the W. Until these two factors ease off 94L will not likely make it to TD status. BINGO!!! the year of the shear. Easterlies are going to eat away at those beautiful waves behind 94L as well. People forget this El Nino = shear. By the time they get further west more shear ULLs or trough kills em. I hate boring years like this. 94L is a mess and convection doesn't mean impressive. The last quikscat showed it all. A very broad center with MULTIPLE imbedded developing lows. It's real disorganized right now.

645. GeoffreyWPB 01:58 GMT le 29 août 2009
img src="" alt="" /> Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9246

646. IKE 01:58 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting kmanislander: SSD just updated to 1:15 Yup....thanks..... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

647. Relix 02:00 GMT le 29 août 2009
The development is going nicely and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a TD tomorrow going into the northern caribbean (Yes, into it). It's taking its time to develop and it should eventually step up a bit but not pulled out over the islands. It's my new point of view from analyzing the steering layers right now and having water vapor loops open through the whole day haha. I am still split 50/50 on into the caribbean or into the atlantic. Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359

648. kmanislander 02:01 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting BenBIogger: I thought this link was inactive since May ?. No longer on the WU home page. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

650. atmoaggie 02:03 GMT le 29 août 2009
The spread from BAMS to BAMD tells me that, like usual, if 94 would go ahead and develop a little, we would have to worry about it a bit less. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

651. Motttt 02:04 GMT le 29 août 2009
ice formation cleared for the launch Member Since: 10 septembre 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213

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