Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Danny still weak

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 19:32 GMT le 28 août 2009

Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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401. Weathermandan 23:46 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting cyclonekid: Interesting BAMD model sinks Danny to the SE. 94L Does anybody else see some definitive rotation under the convection with Danny, moving SOUTH?

403. mobilegirl81 23:47 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting Funkadelic: Strength is a factor but right now it has a slight WNW movement, and by the time it reaches the islands, it will feel a "Slight" pull north but then flatten out to more of a western track. The only way it makes it into the Carribean is if it falls apart tonight and drifts WSW as an open wave. Ok thanks, that makes better sense. Member Since: 31 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

404. tropicfreak 23:47 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting Weathermandan: Does anybody else see some definitive rotation under the convection with Danny, moving SOUTH? Hmmmmmm... Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6564

405. EastCoastMove 23:49 GMT le 28 août 2009
Man I just can't wait for that "tropical wave" from Miami to make it up here to Tallahassee on Sept. 7th. GO NOLES Member Since: 5 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

407. Chicklit 23:52 GMT le 28 août 2009
Danny is about the weirdest freak of a TS I have ever seen. Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10226

408. canesrule1 23:52 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting connie1976: The same path as Bill? no he means a, "oh no florida is screwed!" type of path

409. Chicklit 23:53 GMT le 28 août 2009
94L, on the other hand, is a little more interesting, imo. But I'm a generic sort of person. Not into freakish drama. Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10226

410. Weathermandan 23:53 GMT le 28 août 2009
I can't wait for the 11pm advisory, if indeed that spin under the convection I'm seeing verifies, but I'm not too convinced because the same thing happened yesterday and it was nothing. Difference is that tonight it looks like there's banding? o.O

411. adjusterx 23:55 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting Weathermandan: Does anybody else see some definitive rotation under the convection with Danny, moving SOUTH? Yep..the big loop de loop maybe.

414. VARob 23:57 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting P451: Danny's steering environment. He's going to accelerate. I would think that the ULL centered in GA would negate the effects of the ULL in the caribbean on Danny or am I completly off base here? Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

415. FloridaTigers 23:57 GMT le 28 août 2009
When is 94L going to go WNW? He's heading south of due west and accelerating. Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

416. mobilegirl81 23:58 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting FloridaTigers: When is 94L going to go WNW? He's heading south of due west and accelerating. Yea, models getting ready to go even further west. Member Since: 31 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

418. K8eCane 23:59 GMT le 28 août 2009
Quoting P451: Danny's steering environment. He's going to accelerate. how can that happen? hes moving NE Member Since: 26 avril 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2369

419. MZV 23:59 GMT le 28 août 2009
Don't talk about southwesterly courses ... Ivan, Ike and Katrina all had brief southwesterly tracks ... Member Since: 3 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 227

420. KC2NOLA 00:00 GMT le 29 août 2009
The TWO says 94l is moving west at roughly 15mph...It just looks to me (yes, an untrained eye) that it's going a whole lot faster. Could someone please explain this to me. TIA Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

421. Chicklit 00:01 GMT le 29 août 2009
We may finally see 94L 'go red' tomorrow. Link From the 8 PM NHC Discussion: A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10226

422. MississippiWx 00:01 GMT le 29 août 2009
If anyone is interested, the AOML site has come back to life and is showing updated TCHP maps. The TCHP in the Caribbean, especially NW Caribbean is fairly substantial. I have a feeling that dark blue spot on the map in the GOM is inaccurate as that is the loop current, which should have the most amount of TCHP in the whole GOM. "" alt="" Link Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8495

423. FLGatorCaneNut 00:02 GMT le 29 août 2009
For those in S.E. Florida Channel 10 is having a 2009 Hurricane Season Update with Max Mayfield Member Since: 26 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

424. FloridaTigers 00:02 GMT le 29 août 2009
Based on current steering, I see 94L going into the Caribbean unless he slows down. Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

425. VARob 00:03 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting FloridaTigers: When is 94L going to go WNW? He's heading south of due west and accelerating. I don't think it is going to go WNW,W or any other direction other than SSW. And to think two day's ago it was a fish headed NE. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

426. Weathermandan 00:03 GMT le 29 août 2009
The satellite loop on WU (which is the most up-to-date that I can find) looks like Danny's center has almost certainly reformed beneath that bubble of convection. If that's the case what the HECK happens now LOL Nice banding going on over the Mid-Atlantic. Supposed to get 3-4 inches of rain on Long Island tonight/tomorrow..

427. Relix 00:04 GMT le 29 août 2009
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

428. FloridaTigers 00:06 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut: For those in S.E. Florida Channel 10 is having a 2009 Hurricane Season Update with Max Mayfield Thanks. Its good for Channel 10 to do something like this as a reminder for others. Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

429. ackee 00:08 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting FloridaTigers: Based on current steering, I see 94L going into the Caribbean unless he slows down. agree but dont think it will survie the eastern carrb thow Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

431. homelesswanderer 00:08 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting MZV: Don't talk about southwesterly courses ... Ivan, Ike and Katrina all had brief southwesterly tracks ... I second that motion. :) Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

433. Dakster 00:11 GMT le 29 août 2009
Hey StormW can't wait for tomorrow synopsis on 94L... Should be interesting reading. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4919

434. futuremet 00:13 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting MississippiWx: If anyone is interested, the AOML site has come back to life and is showing updated TCHP maps. The TCHP in the Caribbean, especially NW Caribbean is fairly substantial. I have a feeling that dark blue spot on the map in the GOM is inaccurate as that is the loop current, which should have the most amount of TCHP in the whole GOM. "" alt="" Link Yess!!!!!!!!! Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

435. pcolasky 00:13 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting VARob: I don't think it is going to go WNW,W or any other direction other than SSW. And to think two day's ago it was a fish headed NE. Doesn't look to be a fish IMO

437. Weathermandan 00:14 GMT le 29 août 2009
WU loop (ending at 8:07 PM EDT) Link Looks like the center is under the convection and the storm as a whole is drifting south. Link NHC loop (ending at 6:45 PM EDT) Looks like the LLC is still defined northwest of the convection, moving ENE. What's ACTUALLY going on? My gut tells me the "center" I'm seeing on the WU loop may very well be an illusion, but it certainly looks ominous.... Thoughts? :)

438. hurricane23 00:15 GMT le 29 août 2009
94 really looking like a mess at the moment.Very broard ill defind mid/surface circulation.Models are not to agreesive at the moment. Just something to watch but not looking good tonight. adrian Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13271

439. Crazybowler910 00:15 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting P451: Oh, Danny, what are you up to? Is this it? Is he now heading NE and out of the picture for the CONUS? Bermuda threat? Is this just a jog? Getting sucked into the convection? Will this cause strengthening? Is this somehow part of a loop? Is he going to get left behind by the Florida ULL/Trough? ...Danny suddenly became interesting again. At least for the time being until he reveals his true motive. That is a center relocation as Dr.Masters has been talking about how it has done this now 20+ times so far.

440. CaicosRetiredSailor 00:15 GMT le 29 août 2009
The astronauts are approaching the launch pad to board Shuttle Discovery for a midnight Eastern time launch. Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5110

441. kanc2001 00:16 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting FloridaTigers: When is 94L going to go WNW? He's heading south of due west and accelerating. barbados may be interesting in a few days Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181

443. Dakster 00:19 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting EastCoastMove: Man I just can't wait for that "tropical wave" from Miami to make it up here to Tallahassee on Sept. 7th. GO NOLES We'll see. It's all about the U... Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4919

444. Chicklit 00:19 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: The astronauts are approaching the launch pad to board Shuttle Discovery for a midnight Eastern time launch. Wondering if me and Archie can stay up that late to walk down to the beach and watch the launch... Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10226

446. CrazyDuke 00:21 GMT le 29 août 2009
Maybe Danny will pull a loop-de-loop next? I hope not. Member Since: 13 février 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 140

447. Relix 00:21 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting kanc2001: barbados may be interesting in a few days I say 94L will be over Barbados if it keeps the track. At any point it has to feel the through influence and it will jump a few grades north. Now... where will it stop is the whole factor here. Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

448. padirescu 00:21 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: The astronauts are approaching the launch pad to board Shuttle Discovery for a midnight Eastern time launch. Yes, and I am 10 minutes out from watching it at Space Walk Park in Titusville. I'll try to post pictures tomorrow assuming it launches tonight. So far it looks like the clouds will clear out by launch time. Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 44

449. tallahasseecyclone 00:22 GMT le 29 août 2009
You're tellin me. That is one wave that is going to get blown apart by "shear" lol GO NOLES Quoting EastCoastMove: Man I just can't wait for that "tropical wave" from Miami to make it up here to Tallahassee on Sept. 7th. GO NOLES

450. Chicklit 00:22 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting FloridaTigers: Based on current steering, I see 94L going into the Caribbean unless he slows down. Where's KmanIslander? He's my Caribbean expert! Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10226

451. hunkerdown 00:22 GMT le 29 août 2009
Quoting mobilegirl81: Yea, models getting ready to go even further west. stop focusing on models on a tropical wave, it means nothing at this time. 94L is still very disorganized and will continue to move on a westward track, for the most part, until/if it develops further. Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

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